Closed loop economics

[From Rick Marken (2005.01.09.1630)]

Last week I spoke on closed loop economics at a Socioeconomics meeting
at UC Berkeley and at the American Association of Law Schools meeting
in San Francisco. I think both talks went pretty well and I met some
nice people (economists and lawyers) who might be willing to work with
me and anyone else interested in looking at macroeconomics from a
control theory perspective.

I also learned that there is a Journal of Socioeconomics which,
according to the editor, who was at the meeting, is becoming one of the
highest ranked journals in economics. I think we (those of us
interested in applying PCT to economics) should try to publish a paper
in that journal. Such a paper would not only give our economics work
some good visibility but the process of trying to produce such a paper
might also provide a nice focus for developing the PCT approach to
economics.

Richard S. Marken
marken@mindreadings.com
Home 310 474-0313
Cell 310 729-1400

[From Bruce Gregory (2005.01.09.2218)]

Rick Marken (2005.01.09.1630]

I also learned that there is a Journal of Socioeconomics which,
according to the editor, who was at the meeting, is becoming one of the
highest ranked journals in economics. I think we (those of us
interested in applying PCT to economics) should try to publish a paper
in that journal. Such a paper would not only give our economics work
some good visibility but the process of trying to produce such a paper
might also provide a nice focus for developing the PCT approach to
economics.

I'm sure that I am the only one who finds it the slightest bit odd that
psychologists who claim they cannot model aggregate data in psychology
have no trouble proposing models to explain aggregate data in
economics. Nothing much surprises me any more, but this come close.

The enemy of truth is not error. The enemy of truth is certainty.

[From Bill Powers (2005.01.10.0628 MST)]

Rick Marken (2005.01.09.1630)]

Last week I spoke on closed loop economics at a Socioeconomics meeting
at UC Berkeley and at the American Association of Law Schools meeting
in San Francisco. I think both talks went pretty well and I met some
nice people (economists and lawyers) who might be willing to work with
me and anyone else interested in looking at macroeconomics from a
control theory perspective.

My immediate reaction was dismay -- the news is wonderful but I can't join
in just now. Wish I could. I'm going to Hilton Head to an IAACT meeting
next week (Friday to Wednesday) and don't know what I'm going to say. No
work on the new book for the last month. Promised David Goldstein a
revision of a tracking program, but it's going slowly. My attention span is
about long enough to reply to a post. I just have to wait, I think.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Kenny Kitzke (2005.01.10)]

<Rick Marken (2005.01.09.1630)>

I think this is a worthwhile effort. I do not like the title.

I do not believe economics is a closed system. I think the historical data concerning economic crashes proves it. If it is closed, why is there “Leakage” in the PCT theory on economics?

Oh, I realize you can develop closed loop models for things like producing and consuming widgets by individuals individually and collectively as in companies, nations or even the world. But, these closed loop models will not model the economy effectively.

< I think we (those of us
interested in applying PCT to economics) should try to publish a paper
in that journal. Such a paper would not only give our economics work
some good visibility but the process of trying to produce such a paper
might also provide a nice focus for developing the PCT approach to
economics.>

OTOH, could a misapplication of closed loop PCT theory to an open system shed doubt about PCT as a theory of behavior?

I will admit that even with error, a PCT approach to economics could prove more valuable than what already exists. So, I would encourage its pursuit. But, please consider whether this descriptor or moniker of “Closed Loop Economics” is the way to start.

I could see something like Economics from a Human Behavioral Model would be a more fruitful view to join the two ideas. Where the economic system may work best when the open system Leakage is controlled to be lowest.

Of course, what do I know about Economis or PCT?

[Martin Taylor 2005.01.10.10.16]

[From Kenny Kitzke (2005.01.10)]

<Rick Marken (2005.01.09.1630)>

I think this is a worthwhile effort. I do not like the title.

I do not believe economics is a closed system.

Of course it isn't, in the technical sense. Economics revolves around
the conversion of energy, for which there is a source and a sink. But
the same is true also of the individual human, and that doesn't stop
us from using closed loop structures usefully in theorizing about,
and modelling, human behaviour.

Economics isn't closed-loop either when we talk strictly about money.
There are sources and sinks for money (borrowing, and defaulting on
loans). That shouldn't make it less useful to talk about closed loop
_structures_ in economic theory and modelling. One just has to be
careful about whether your studies of the behaviours of those
structures are affected by the open-loop nature of the entire system.

Oh, I realize you can develop closed loop models for things like
producing and consuming widgets by individuals individually and
collectively as in companies, nations or even the world. But, these
closed loop models will not model the economy effectively.

The key word here is "effectively". Had you said "exactly", or
"totally" or something like that, I would have agreed with you. But
"effective" is a term with gradations. It's a matter open to testing
as to whether one way of looking at the system is more effective than
another. You make a strong assertion about the results of tests that
have yet to be done.

I may have my own notions about the promise and possible limitations
of a PCT-based approach to economics, but I don't think they are
relevant here. The point I want to make is that closed-loop analyses
have proved useful in dealing with the community of human behavioural
processes, when we know for sure that the human is not a closed
system. What grounds have you for asserting that they will not be
useful in dealing with the community of economic interactions?

Martin

[From Bruce Gregory (2005.0110.1055)]

[Martin Taylor 2005.01.10.10.16]

The point I want to make is that closed-loop analyses
have proved useful in dealing with the community of human behavioural
processes, when we know for sure that the human is not a closed
system.

I was unaware of such studies. Can you provide references? Thanks.

The enemy of truth is not error. The enemy of truth is certainty.

[From Kenny Kitzke (2005.01.10.11:00EST]

<Martin Taylor 2005.01.10.10.16>

Oh, I realize you can develop closed loop models for things like
producing and consuming widgets by individuals individually and
collectively as in companies, nations or even the world. But, these
closed loop models will not model the economy effectively.

<The key word here is “effectively”. Had you said “exactly”, or
“totally” or something like that, I would have agreed with you. But
“effective” is a term with gradations. It’s a matter open to testing
as to whether one way of looking at the system is more effective than
another. You make a strong assertion about the results of tests that
have yet to be done.>

Actually, I said, that the closed loop models of an economy that Rick, Bill and Trevor may develop now could well explain economics better than other current theories and models. They could be more valuable and effective.

I will admit that even with error, a PCT approach to economics could prove more valuable >than what already exists. So, I would encourage its pursuit.

So, your gripe about a strong assertion seems off base. It is just an opinion. If I was strongly asserting anything in a negative way, I would NOT encourage its pursuit.

I don’t suspect that the current conceptual model can ever be “effective” in predicting economic results. The models Rick and Bill have expounded thus far leave too much of the real system out of the model and closed loops.

Perhaps as the PCT models are expanded and refined, it will become effective for predictive use. When these models produce some useful results, I’ll be happy to change my evalution of their effectiveness. Until then, my perception leaves me a Doubting Thomas. Is that OK with you?

I don’t see any assertion on your part that the PCT models of the economy so far are effective in predicting the behavior of the economy. Do you have any claim of its effectiveness so far? Have I missed something?

<I may have my own notions about the promise and possible limitations
of a PCT-based approach to economics, but I don’t think they are
relevant here. The point I want to make is that closed-loop analyses
have proved useful in dealing with the community of human behavioural
processes, when we know for sure that the human is not a closed
system.>

Now, let’s check the gander. Here we have you claiming that PCT has proved “useful” in dealing with human behavior. I agree. But, “useful” is as relative a word as “effective” in my dictionary. What exact thing about behavior has PCT has revealed? What total understanding of human nature has PCT revealed?

<What grounds have you for asserting that they will not be
useful in dealing with the community of economic interactions?>

I did not say they will not be useful. I said they will not be effective in explaining economics. Until I have some other evidence, I will continue to think that.

I mainly suggested using a different modicom for the effort. Since you agree with me that it is not a technically correct to describe economics or economies in closed loop terms, it would seem to be more effusive to say up front we are pursing “a closed loop PCT model to better understand an open loop economic system.”

Or, is technical accuracy only relevant when others in RTP say “I see you have chosen to leave the classroom?”

[From Bill Powers (2005.01.10.0950 MST)]

Martin Taylor 2005.01.10.10.16]–

[Kitze]

I do not believe economics is a closed
system.

[Taylor]

Of course it isn’t, in the technical sense. Economics revolves
around

the conversion of energy, for which there is a source and a sink.
But

the same is true also of the individual human, and that doesn’t
stop

us from using closed loop structures usefully in theorizing about,

and modelling, human behaviour.

Let’s not confuse Bertalanffy’s concept of open and closed systems (or
the thermodynamic concept) with closed-loop systems. They are not
at all the same thing. A closed-loop system, which is to say a control
system, acts by using energy obtained from outside itself, and it rejects
waste energy into the outside world, too, so it is not thermodynamically
closed, or informationally closed, either (referring to
Maturana).

Behind Kenny’s objection there is, I suspect, another concept as well:
the idea that economics is not a zero-sum game, which is the claim
usually raised when the disparity between rich and poor is brought up, or
when the rapaciousness of some entrepreneurs is criticized. It’s really
OK to use any methods that work to get as much of the world’s economic
resources as possible, because, as the clever phrase puts it, a rising
tide raises all boats. This argument, oddly enough, is most often put
forth by those who own the yachts and hire the guards to keep the
rowboats away.

A closed-loop economics is primarily about a new model of Economic Man,
in which it is people’s desire (and need) for goods and services (and
control) that drives the economy. That model says nothing about open or
closed systems, or about games. The nearest thing to it in current
economics today is in the movement called “agent-based
economics”. From what I have seen that movement still has a way to
move, but it’s better than traditional economics. Might be worthwhile to
get in touch with some of those folks.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bruce Gregory (2005.0110.1225)]

Bill Powers (2005.01.10.0950 MST)

A closed-loop economics is primarily about a new model of Economic
Man, in which it is people's desire (and need) for goods and services
(and control) that drives the economy. That model says nothing about
open or closed systems, or about games. The nearest thing to it in
current economics today is in the movement called "agent-based
economics". From what I have seen that movement still has a way to
move, but it's better than traditional economics. Might be worthwhile
to get in touch with some of those folks.

I would expect that any realistic economic model would be based on the
interactions between independent agents, e.g., the approach taken in
"Crowd."

The enemy of truth is not error. The enemy of truth is certainty.

[From Rick Marken (2005.01.10.1130)]

Bill Powers (2005.01.10.0628 MST)

Rick Marken (2005.01.09.1630)]

Last week I spoke on closed loop economics at a Socioeconomics meeting
at UC Berkeley and at the American Association of Law Schools meeting
in San Francisco. I think both talks went pretty well and I met some
nice people (economists and lawyers) who might be willing to work with
me and anyone else interested in looking at macroeconomics from a
control theory perspective.

My immediate reaction was dismay -- the news is wonderful but I can't join
in just now. Wish I could.

Don't worry. I just wanted to let you know what's up.

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

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[From Bill Powers (2005.01.10.1330 MST)]

Bruce Gregory (2005.0110.1225)--

I would expect that any realistic economic model would be based on the
interactions between independent agents, e.g., the approach taken in
"Crowd."

I hope you didn't bet a lot on that. Mostly, economic models don't include
any agents at all -- only things like supply and demand curves. My hope is
to apply the same methods used in "Crowd", but first we have to model the
environment so the agents have something to work with. By "environment" I
mean everything that's just part of the mechanics of economic transactions.
buying and selling, producing, depreciation, and so on -- the elements with
which the agents have to deal in their interactions. I'm not sure that any
existing approach, even the agent-based one, really does this from the
ground up.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Kenny Kitzke (2005.01.10.1800EST)]

<Bill Powers (2005.01.10.0950 MST)>

<A closed-loop economics is primarily about a new model of Economic Man, in which it is people’s desire (and need) for goods and services (and control) that drives the economy.>

Excuse me, but when describing “a new model of Economic Man” to a group of professional economists (or ameteur economists like me) who conceive an economy to be an open system able to explode or crash, I would think the term “closed-loop economics” would be a turn off (a disturbance) in a philosophical sense. I doubt if many of them are thinking in thermo dynamics terms and they surely won’t be thinking in PCT closed negative feedback loop terms.

So, Bill, I like calling your calling it “A New Model of Economic Man.” It is not only more accurate, I would think it would be less of a disturbance to economists and even catch their interest in discovery learning.

Anyway, it was just an idea, a constructive critique for coming out of the blocks effectively. Call it Closed Loop Economics if you like, but I hope it has more acceptance with the economists of the world than Closed Loop PCT has had with its credentialed psychologists.

[From Kenny Kitzke (2005.0110.1930EST)]

<Bruce Gregory (2005.0110.1225)>

<I would expect that any realistic economic model would be based on the
interactions between independent agents, e.g., the approach taken in
“Crowd.”>

I would not conceive of economics, or a model for economics, this way. It appears to me that economic activity is an interrelationship phenomena, sort of like teaching and learning.

[From Bruce Gregory (2005.0110.1950)]

Kenny Kitzke (2005.0110.1930EST)

I would not conceive of economics, or a model for economics, this way. It appears to me that economic activity is an interrelationship phenomena, sort of like teaching and learning.

Am I take it that you do not think that teaching and learning involves interactions between independent agents?

The enemy of truth is not error. The enemy of truth is certainty.

[From Kenny Kitzke (2005.01.12)]

<Bruce Gregory (2005.0110.1950)>

I would not conceive of economics, or a model for economics, this
way. It appears to me that economic activity is an interrelationship
phenomena, sort of like teaching and learning.

<Am I take it that you do not think that teaching and learning involves
interactions between independent agents?>

Sure, the teacher and student in an educational process are independent agents in what they do. But, the result of this educational process, the education or learning by the student, is an interrelationship phenomena.

Two people moving a desk are independent agents but if they do not interrelate effectively, they will not be able to achieve the result of moving the desk to the new desired location.

Is this more clear and correct? Aren’t economic results a relational process where the individuals cannot behave independent of the other and the envirnoment?

[From Rick Marken (2004.02.19.0855)]

Kenny Kitzke (2004.02.18)--

I see no evidence that economies are closed loop systems.
I believe you can try to analyze them as such (using
currency flows, etc.). But, if economies are not
actually closed loop... why anyone hoping to study
the real system ... use a closed loop model or simulation
to explain the real thing or improve it?

Any thoughts about this to test my conclusion would
be read and appreciated...

I agree that using a closed loop model to understand an open loop
system would be a mistake. But I think there is good reason to think
that the economy is a closed loop system. The closed loop nature of
the economy was suggested to me by the realization that the two main
components of an economy, the aggregate consumer and the aggregate
producer, are by and large the same people. I have come to view an
economy as an aggregate producer that acts on the environment
(consisting of raw materials) to produce a reference amount of goods
and services for itself as the aggregate consumer. This aggregate view
gives a picture of an economy that is strikingly similar to the control
theory view of the individual humans that are the elements of that
economy.

A human being, from the control theory perspective, is a system that
acts on it's environment to produce a reference amount of input for
itself to consume (sometimes literally) as perceptions. The simplest
"economy" is, thus, an individual control system: it hunts and gathers
to produce food for itself, it chips at stones to produce the tools it
uses (consumes) in order to produce the food it consumes (the use of
tools being the consumption of capital goods), and so on.

A more realistic economy involves some division of labor so that
different control systems specialize in the production of the different
products that all systems want and need to consume. Some systems
produce food, others produce computers, still others care for the sick
and so on. This specialization can improve production dramatically
(this was nicely described by Smith in _Wealth of Nations_) but it
works only if there is some method for sharing the results of this
specialized production. This is because each group of specialists can
produce far more of their product than they themselves can consume and,
because the specialists are not producing the other products that they
themselves also want. The food producers can produce far more food than
they need but they don't have time to produce the computers they want.
The computer producers can produce far more computers than they need
but they don't have time to produce food they need. And so on. But all
groups of specialists want what each specialist group produces: food,
computers, health care, etc. So they have to find a way to share the
results of their production. This is where barter, markets and money
comes in.

If every individual control system produced everything it wanted for
itself then the study of economics would be equivalent to the study of
individual control organization. And it would be clear that an economy
- a single individual - is a closed loop system. But we now live in a
complex organization of individual control systems where each
individual devotes much of its time to the production of specialized
products that are collected together and made available to all
individuals via markets. So each individual in an economy produces a
specialized product (or products), gets money for doing so and goes to
a market and purchases what it wants of all the products produced by
specialization. Each individual is a control system. But in a
specialized economy, individuals control their inputs (the food,
computers, medical care, etc.) relative to their references by
producing specialized products in return for money that is used to
purchase these inputs.

In a specialized economy like ours, the closed loop nature of the
economy can probably be seen more clearly at the aggregate than at the
individual level. At the aggregate level we see an aggregate control
system with a virtual reference for some amount of the many different
kinds of goods and services that make up GNP (an array of goods and
services that no individual could possibly produce on its own). This
aggregate control systems works, in the role of aggregate producer, to
convert the raw materials of the environment into this array of desired
goods and services and, in the role of aggregate consumer, consumes
what is is producing. This is my big picture view of the economy as a
closed loop system.

If the economy were, indeed, open loop, then we would expect it to
produce as much as it was capable of producing at any particular time.
That is, the food producers would produce as much food as they are
capable of producing, the computer producers would produce as many
computers as they are capable of producing, and so on. But we know this
doesn't happen. The aggregate control system that is the economy seems
to vary its output (production of GNP) to match demand, which is
basically the aggregate or virtual reference for what is produced.
Just as, at the individual level, we don't keep producing, say, food
input for ourselves simply because we are capable of producing more of
that input, the economy doesn't keep producing goods and services for
itself simply because it is capable of producing more goods and
services. The economy, like an individual control system, seems to
produce the reference amount of input.

I think the analysis of the investment/growth relationship also
demonstrates the closed loop nature of the economy. In an open loop
system, increased investment would drive increased growth as a one way,
causal process. But the data show that the the effect of investment on
growth is limited by demand (the reference for how much of what is
produced will be consumed). The aggregate producer invests to drive
production in order to meet the reference for what is produced. The
amount produced seems to be a controlled rather than a dependent
variable.

Of course, none of this proves that the economy is really a closed loop
system. What is needed, I think, are more tests of both closed and
open loop models of the economy to see which model does a better job of
accounting for the observed macro economic data.

Best regards

Rick

···

---
Richard S. Marken
marken@mindreadings.com
Home 310 474-0313
Cell 310 729-1400

From Bill Williams 19 February 2004 4:30 PM CST]

[From Rick Marken (2004.02.19.0855)]

Kenny Kitzke (2004.02.18)--

Kenny, I think you and Rick may mean much different things by the

terms "open" and "closed."

You say that you

> ... see no evidence that economies are closed loop systems.

Rick, however, sees the whole economic process in terms as he say,

> that the economy is a closed loop system.

Beyond this difference Rick has some rather strange notions about

the economy. Rick for instance says,

The simplest "economy" is, thus, an individual control system:

The difficulty with this notion of an "individual control system"

is that there is no actual thing that corresponds to an what

Rick is calling an individual. Human beings exist only in

association, or in groups. So, beginning an analysis of the

economic process with an analysis of a mythical "individual"

only confuses the question.

Rick is plodding down the usual, or as he sneering says, the

conventional economic mythological path with an explanation

of how exchange starts from the division of labor, the

specialization of production and so forth. As he says of Smith,

This is where barter, markets and money comes in.

Rick's explain is the one that has appeared in very standard

economic texts for more than a century, or two. But, it doesn't

have much, if anything to do with the actual development of

the economy as a historical process.

What Rick in borrowing from the standard account fails to disclose

is that there never was such as thing as the mythological

individual which plays so prominent a role in this narrative.

Really as a narrative it has much less to do with what actually

took place in the history of economic development than my fable

"Running Naked in the Forest" has to do with CSG.

But, despite this Rick claims that,

If every individual control system produced everything it wanted for

itself then the study of economics would be equivalent to the study of

individual control organization. And it would be clear that an economy

- a single individual - is a closed loop system.

But, this isn't actually clear at all. What an economy would be for

_per impossible_ an isolated totally alone "single individual" is

purely a matter of mythological imputation. We don't have the slightest

idea of what such an arrangement would be like. As best I can determine

human experience is both individualized and socialized. What Rick is

repeating is a legend developed in the 17th and 18th centuries when

the idea of society as a secular, naturalistic process was just getting

started. This account is the one developed in various versions by

Locke, Hobbes, Smith, and many others were attempting to make sense

of human nature, history and culture.

Rick says, that in contrast to this state of human development

in which there were _only_ individuals, that

we now live in a complex organization of individual control systems

where each

individual devotes much of its time to the production of specialized

products that are collected together and made available to all

individuals via markets.

The difficulty here is that human beings have always lived in as

Rick says, "complex organizations." "Specialization" has always

been a part of human society. Rick has adopted the ordinary fable

of economics, and given it a small twist by introducing into it,

a change which replaces Bentham's economic man by one that is

closer to a control theory conception. This is as Rick describes

it,

....my big picture view of the economy as a closed loop system.

It however, not Rick's big picture-- rather it a conception that

has been commonplace in economic mythology since the commercial

revolution following the decline of mercantilism.

Rick goes on to introduce a conception of "demand" And, he

says

The economy, like an individual control system, seems to

produce the reference amount of input.

Since there is no record of an economy made up of an "individual

control system" the comparison Rick is making is a mythological

comparison. And, in an elementary economics text book, it is

routinely pointed out that there is a fundamental difference

between what people would like to have or to consume and what

they have the funds to purchase. There is thus a difference

between demand for an input-- in Rick's sense, and an "Economic"

demand that can be put into effect by actually purchasing an

item.

I think the analysis of the investment/growth relationship also

demonstrates the closed loop nature of the economy. In an open loop

system, increased investment would drive increased growth as a one way,

causal process.

In the passage above it isn't at all clear what Rick is talking about.

He goes on to say that,

...the data show that the effect of investment on

growth is limited by demand (the reference for how much of what is

produced will be consumed).

Here Rick is introducing lots of concepts without defining what these

concepts mean. Given the innovative character of this discussion, it

can not be assumed that the terms have a meaning that is remotely

in correspondence with the what the words usually mean. (This was

also one of the distinctive features of Bill Powers' dad's approach

to economic theorizing.)

But, Rick proceeds without pausing to provide specification of what

the terms mean, to say that,

The aggregate producer invests to drive

production in order to meet the reference for what is produced.

Actually, it is ordinarily assumed that producers "invest" to make

a profit. Whether they supply production to meet a reference for

what is to be produced-- when viewed from the standpoint of the

consumer is beside the point.

Smith, Adam Smith made this clear, when he pointed out that it is

not from the public spiritedness of the baker, the butcher or the

candle maker that we are provided with goods, but rather as a

result of their self-interest. Rick's account of a market capitalist

system is markedly at odds with the understanding of this sort of

society-- an understanding which is common, rare as this is, between

academics and the business economy. Our is a system that is, it

is said, and correctly I think, driven by the profit motive. And

if it needs to be pointed out, profits are measured, not in terms

of "production to meet a reference" but by the difference between

money expenses and money proceeds. As Marx pointed out,

capitalist transactions consist of an " M-C-M " sequence. Money

is transformed into commodities, so that commodities can be

transformed into money. See Steve Keen's 2OO1 discussion in

_Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences_

in the section p. 193-6. "The Circuit of Capital"

When Marken presents what he describes as his "closed loop

model" of the economy, however, the profit motive is to

my astonishment entirely absent. Somehow, the capitalists

seem to have, and there is certainly no explanation of how

this has taken place, been a transformation in the hearts of

the capitalists so that in Rick's system the capitalists

produce rather than for profit, instead to meet the "reference

amount of input" as desired in the perceptions of the consumers.

And, this is what Rick has claimed has been the achievement made

possible by applying control theory to the difficulties of

economic theory. This is an achievement that surpasses those of

all the economists in recorded history combined.

All I can say in admiration is "How wonderful."

Bill Williams

[From Bjorn Simonsen (2004.02.20, 10:30
EuST)]

[From Kenny Kitzke (2004.02.18)]

Ø
I wonder why anyone hoping to study the real system,
and pontificate on how it really works,

Ø
would use a closed loop model or simulation to explain
the real thing or improve it?

I try to make a closed loop model of an
economic system Here I include set of variables and my PC is a marvellous
instrument where I can study how the model is working. I enjoy it and appreciate when somebody
point out other variables which disturb. In this way my model is further
developed.

In this group it isn’t appropriate or
necessary to remind what a closed loop model is, but I do it. – “A system is said to perform closed-loop
processing if the system feeds information back into itself”.

Contrary “In open-loop systems, there is no
feedback from the environment to the agent. In other words, the outputs from architectural
processes are considered complete upon execution.

I
think as Rick

[From Rick Marken (2004.02.19.0855)]

Ø
Of course, none of this proves that the
economy is really a closed loop

Ø
system. What is needed, I think, are more tests of both closed and

Ø
open loop models of the economy to see
which model does a better job of

Ø
accounting for the observed macro economic
data.

I
hope future will bring more bread and less “personal descriptions about other
people”. I think of them as the outputs from the controlling processes,
whatever they control. I never think of them as a description of their or the
extern world. Most of them I skip.

Later today or to morrow I will comment your “Economic
Data Analysis”, Rick. I have found a Correlation coefficient at 1., and I don’t
understand/believe it.

bjorn

[From Kenny Kitzke (2004.02.20)]

<Bjorn Simonsen (2004.02.20, 10:30 EuST)>

Ø I wonder why anyone hoping to study the real system, and pontificate on how it really works,

Ø would use a closed loop model or simulation to explain the real thing or improve it?

I understand why you might do this since it is enjoyable to you. And, this hobby-like activity may turn up something novel, some new understanding about economics that may even be revolutionary and contrary to the understanding of all the credentialed economy experts.

If so, I am sure you would humbly proffer your findings and methods to others like us on CSGNet, but especially to the recognized economic experts, and let them critique your work to see if what you say you have discovered is true. Here you and they may learn something mutually beneficial.

And, if not, you will have spent your time on something you enjoy and sort of came out with nothing of interest to anyone else. But this would not rob you of the enjoyment of exploring ideas and models about economic variables on your computer.

Supposedly, men enjoy fishing and keep coming back to the lake for more fishing, even if they caught no “lawful keepers,” caught nothing, or even never had a nibble!

But, this is not what I questioned. Have you made declarations about conventional economists and how what they believe is wrong based on your understandings or analyses? Have you announced discoveries when you can’t even explain precisely what you discovered or how you confirmed your discovery?

If you were at Rick Marken’s presentation on “Leakage” at the Boston CSG Conference (its available on videotape), you might appreciate why those who had some expertise in economics were appalled by Rick’s presentation. Based on some very limited modeling, with incomplete data, he was sure there was leakage in the economy as pontificated by Trevor Powers, and this realization had powerful implications for how to manage an economy which had escaped the experts.

Several economic “experts” (including Bill Williams) reacted adversely to the presentation. I think you could say they perceived Rick as arrogant and uninformed, a sheer novice. You could even say they might have hated Rick’s guts to present such drivel as a scholarly analysis worth considering further.

Now, anyone can buy the tape and observe what went on there that day. They may come to different conclusions than Bill Williams, Hugh Gibbons or me. But, I can speak for my own perceptions. I was convinced that I did not want to spend my time analyzing or refuting Rick’s methods or pronouncements concerning his economic models or the real economy and what works in it and what does not.

And, I did not, all these years until recently. I think what changed for me was Bill Power’s candid open rebuttal of Rick’s model, methods and assumptions as “a giant leap in the wrong direction.” In a rather aloof and pompous manner, Rick still characterizes his work, which he keeps referring to on his web site, as “pretty good.”

Perhaps even more enticing was Bill Power’s acknowledgment of possible and even probable flaws in his father’s work (work that Rick seemed determined to verify as true). Bill’s attempt to create a new and better model he called the economic Test Bed using control theory was a breath of fresh air to me. Bill humbly sought help from anyone, especially anyone with economics credentials to build a sound model and run it, before making arrogant claims.

I, for example, with only a 35-year old minor degree in economics, plus 35 years of practical business economics experience, pointed out how out-of-date the factory concept he used in his Test Bed was for today’s service dominated economy.

To draw conclusions about the performance of a Model T Ford model to me would be rather like masturbating (enjoyment for oneself without any human interaction) since the science of auto design and manufacture has evolved considerably since then. Any conclusions reached, even if true about the Model T and its performance, would probably be utterly worthless for the high quality and performance cars of today.

Now, I also understand one has to start somewhere to build a model. Great. If Bill or you have the time and patience and determination to do that on the hope that you might someday develop a model that is instructive or useful concerning the current economies of nations, then all the power to you.

But, I see other fertile matters for my time. And, my Economic Stew, was only a way to acknowledge why I started and then quit contributing. It was not primarily because of Rick or Bill Williams and their offensive or unprofessional behavior on CSGNet. Nothing new about that in our USA environment, even on what is characterized as a professional forum, or a Church for that matter. I still like both men and wish we remain PCT buddies.

<In this group it isn’t appropriate or necessary to remind what a closed loop model is, but I do it. – “A system is said to perform closed-loop processing if the system feeds information back into itselfâ€?.

Contrary “In open-loop systems, there is no feedback from the environment to the agent. In other words, the outputs from architectural processes are considered complete upon execution.>

This is not quite how closed and open loops are characterized in BCP. It is more than feedback, it involves causality, no?

[From Rick Marken (2004.02.19.0855)]

Ø Of course, none of this proves that the economy is really a closed loop

Ø system. What is needed, I think, are more tests of both closed and

Ø open loop models of the economy to see which model does a better job of

Ø accounting for the observed macro economic data.

I also agree that nothing Rick presents shows the economy is a closed loop. However, I think we have evidence that the economy is open loop, for example, that inflation can cause hyper inflation, until the economy collapses. And, it only takes one real example to disprove the closed loop theory even if some or most of the time an economy appears to behave in a closed loop manner. PCTers should, more than most groups, all be aware of system behavioral “illusions.”

<I hope future will bring more bread and less “personal descriptions about other people�. I think of them as the outputs from the controlling processes, whatever they control. I never think of them as a description of their or the extern world. Most of them I skip.>

Please, bread is good. Burnt toast is not so good.

<Later today or to morrow I will comment your “Economic Data Analysis�, Rick. I have found a Correlation coefficient at 1., and I don’t understand/believe it.>

Can’t wait to see your bread! If you know what I look like, you would speculate I am always hungry. Thanks for your contributions to the Economics thread. You might even entice me back!!

Kenny

Economic Novice

[Martin Taylor 2004.02.20.1601]

[From Kenny Kitzke (2004.02.20)]

I also agree that nothing Rick presents shows the economy is a
closed loop. However, I think we have evidence that the economy is
open loop, for example, that inflation can cause hyper inflation,
until the economy collapses.

Actually, isn't that a description of a closed loop with positive feedback?

If Bagno's information-theoretic analysis (or my riff on it) have any
value, it is to show that whether that particular loop has positive
or negative feedback is data-dependent. In other words, it's a
non-linear loop.

It's not really a useful concept, as to whether a complex system is
open or closed loop, since there will be many loops in most graphs of
interactions among active entities. What matters is how the influence
of the many closed loops that surely exist affects the relations
between quantities measured at point A, time tA and point B, time tB.

Entropically, the economic system is clearly NOT a closed system (a
quite different concept from a closed loop).

Martin