# Predicting maintenance of behavior

**URL:** <http://discourse.iapct.org/t/predicting-maintenance-of-behavior/9068>\
**Category:** CSG1996\
**Created:** [November 25, 1996, 7:43am UTC](http://discourse.iapct.org/t/predicting-maintenance-of-behavior/9068 "1996-11-25T07:43:37Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Bill\_Powers1](http://discourse.iapct.org/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/b/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Bill\_Powers1](http://discourse.iapct.org/u/Bill_Powers1)\
**Post date:** [November 25, 1996, 7:43am UTC](http://discourse.iapct.org/t/predicting-maintenance-of-behavior/9068/1 "1996-11-25T07:43:37Z")

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[From Bill Powers (961124.2330 MST)]

Bruce Abbott (96112x) --

Well, I gave it a rest, about 3 hours. I woke up with my brain nudging me on  
the shoulder, saying "Wake up, stupid." It was all very messy, but I'm back  
together, now.

What my brain wanted to tell me was that we have had the means all along to  
let you tell me exactly what you mean by Process X, reinforcement, or  
whatever you want to call it: 260 days'-worth of data on the behavior of 10  
rats, with a time resolution of 1 day.

In your car analogy, you said this:

> At some point you make some measurements and create graphs  
> showing the relationship between throttle setting and fuel consumption, and  
> between throttle setting and engine RPM. Then you start loading the engine  
> down to see how this affects these relationships, etc., etc. You end with a  
> good understanding of how the various factors affect the engine's RPM. You  
> have conducted a functional analysis of the engine, and from the  
> relationships discovered, you know what you have to do to make the engine  
> run and to keep it running at a given RPM for a give load.

Let's consider our rat data. We now have graphs showing how total food  
intake is related to weight over time, and how weight is related to  
home-cage and experimental-cage intake over time. Putting aside the problem  
that rate of pressing seems unaffected by anything, we at least can say that  
the amount of food actually eaten in each location each day does vary.

I'll leave it up to you to say what measures correspond to "behavior,"  
"contingent events", and anything else you think important. And I'll leave  
it to you to say what it is that is supporting the behavior (the initial  
acquisition is long past). From this description we should be able to  
formulate the purely empirical law that describes the manner of this  
supporting, so we can predict future behavior on the basis of observations  
made so far. And then -- assuming that such an empirical law can actually be  
formulated -- we can see how well it predicts.

And one warning, Darth Abbott. It will avail you nothing to reveal to me  
that you are my father.

Best,

Bill P.