Prediction (was Learning)

[From Bruce gregory (2004.1229.1847)]

Rick Marken (2004.12.29.1310)

I appreciate your posting these predictions. But I think what we also
need
some description of the model that led to these predictions and/or an
explanation of why these predictions lead you to conclude that the PCT
model
is missing something important regarding the role of prediction in
behavior.

I'm disappointed that you find these predictions "vague". Perhaps the
corresponding PCT predictions would show me what you are looking for.
On the other hand, the workings of the brain may have nothing to do
with behavior as defined by PCT. Whether or not this is a strength of
PCT I leave it for others to decide.

The enemy of truth is not error. The enemy of truth is certainty.

[From Bill Powers (2004.12.29.1647 MST)]

Is a ‘sequence control system’
conscious one? I don’t think so.

When you make a spelling mistake, don’t you consciously correct it? Are
the ordinal numbers 1,2,3,5,4,6 in the correct sequence? Could you
correct it?

Do you think about how you
walk?

Sometimes.

How do you know that a
‘sequence control system’ exists? Have you identified this through
experimentation or observation?

Yes, through both, though it could be done better.

Why do you think your ideas are
superior to someone else’s? Have you read Llinas? Have you read any
neuroscience work that you can cite for your opinion besides some work
done in the 1940’s -1960’s?

I’ve read some. Not everything, by far. Have I said my ideas are superior
to anyone’s? I think what I said, or implied, was that I didn’t know why
Llinas’ ideas were being put forward here.

I
found from observation, slowly and over quite a few years, that

I and other people seem to perceive the world in certain categories,
and

that these categories seem to be universal (Prof. Zhang Hua Xia,
who

translated B:CP into Chinese, assured me when I asked that the levels
I

proposed fit very naturally into Chinese ways of thinking and
perceiving).

Excuse me, but at the beginning of this post you stated:

[From Bill Powers (2004.12.29.1152
MST)]

What I realize is that you are substituting logic for observation.
To

declare that the steps become unconscious is to insure against ever
having

to demonstrate that they take place: what is unconscious is by
definition

unobservable. Another way to say this (without invoking unconscious
reasoning) is that…

How did you ever ‘observe’ the unobservable yourself?

Why do you say these things are unobservable? That’s not what I
say.

I guess a
billion Chinese can’t be mistaken, but I don’t quite understand your
admonishment of Bruce for talking about ‘unconscious’ processes, yet your
hierarchy’s first 6 or so levels are all ‘unconscious’ ones.
I think you are mistaken in
these beliefs, but I do wish you well and hope these story’s serve you
well. I’m afraid there of little use to me.

But the first 6 levels of perception and control are NOT unconscious in
me, or in most people I have discussed such things with. They
aren’t “cognitive” in the sense that they involve symbol
manipulation, but they are certainly accessible to awareness. Aren’t you
ever consciously aware of the experiences I refer to as intensities,
sensations, configurations, transitions, events, and
relationships?

OK, don’t use them. What’s the problem?

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bruce Gregory (2004.1229.1909)]

Rick Marken (2004.12.29.1310)

Lest I seem ungrateful, let me stipulate that if your world consists
only of pursuit tracking, PCT is the only model you will ever need.

The enemy of truth is not error. The enemy of truth is certainty.

[From Rick Marken (2004.12.29.1620)]

Bruce gregory (2004.1229.1847)--

Rick Marken (2004.12.29.1310)

I appreciate your posting these predictions. But I think what we also
need some description of the model that led to these predictions and/or
an explanation of why these predictions lead you to conclude that the
PCT model is missing something important regarding the role of
prediction in behavior.

I'm disappointed that you find these predictions "vague".

It was the description of the antecedent events that seemed somewhat vague.
For example, the first prediction was:

We should find cells in all areas of the cortex, including primary
sensory cortex, that show enhanced activity in anticipation of a
sensory event

I can understand what it means to find enhanced activity in a cell: the cell
firing rate increases. But is this enhanced activity supposed to be found
temporally prior to the sensory event or only when the sensory event is
"anticipated". For example, if I play a loud tone at random times, so that
it can't be anticipated, am I supposed to find the enhanced activity prior
to each occurrence of the tone? Or am I only supposed to find the enhanced
activity prior to each occurrence of a regular sequence of tones, where the
occurrence of each tone can be anticipated (predicted)?

So why don't we stick with this prediction for now. I would appreciate it if
you could explain exactly what is being predicted. Then we can move on to
how this prediction relates to the role of prediction/anticipation in
behavior and control.

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

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[From Bruce Gregory (2004.1229.2005)]

Rick Marken (2004.12.29.1620)

I can understand what it means to find enhanced activity in a cell:
the cell
firing rate increases. But is this enhanced activity supposed to be
found
temporally prior to the sensory event or only when the sensory event is
"anticipated". For example, if I play a loud tone at random times, so
that
it can't be anticipated, am I supposed to find the enhanced activity
prior
to each occurrence of the tone? Or am I only supposed to find the
enhanced
activity prior to each occurrence of a regular sequence of tones,
where the
occurrence of each tone can be anticipated (predicted)?

It would depend, of course, on the interval between tones. If the tones
are separated by large random intervals, enhanced activity prior to the
sounding of the tone would require precognition. On the other hand, if
the tones are random, but sufficiently close together in time, we might
expect a priming effect. If the tones were part of a regular sequence,
we already know that we can predict the occurrence of the next tone,
don't we?

Have PCT models been constructed to explain the data on priming? That
would be a good place to start.

The enemy of truth is not error. The enemy of truth is certainty.

[From Bill Powers (2004.12.30.0630 MST)]

Bruce Gregory (2004.1229.1738)–

Fair enough. Here follows a
brief statement of Hawkins’ predictions. I

leave it to you to describe the corresponding PCT-based
predictions.

  1. We should find cells in all areas of the cortex, including
    primary

sensory cortex, that show enhanced activity in anticipation of a

sensory event, as opposed to in reaction to a sensory
event.

If “anticipation” is the setting of a reference signal to a
nonzero value, it would be expected that the output functions of the
systems doing the anticipating would be active, sending reference signals
to the systems that are anticipated to receive the sensory event in
question.
When you say sensory “event”, are you specifically referring to
a stereotyped set of configurations and transitions that create a
space-time pattern with a beginning, a middle, and an end? That is how an
“event” is defined in HPCT. Or does “sensory”
refer to what are called intensities in HPCT? Of course if you’re
speaking of anticipation, the implication is that something is to
“happen”: or “occur” at an identifiable moment. It
would be hard to identify the onset of a perception like
“spinning” or “beside” or “glissando.”
I presume that Llinas mentions the work of E. Roy John, 1972. John says
“A substantial body of data from human beings not only supports the
contention that these released patterns of electrical activity actually
correspond to the activation of specific memories, but establishes
unequivocally that there is a subjective correlate to the appearance of
these released potentials.[HERE IS THE RELEVANT PART] When an
event expected by a man does not occur, a cerebral potential appears at a
latency [delay] similar to that of potentials usually evoked by the
expected stimulus. Evoked potentials elicited in man by absent but
expected events have been reported by numerous workers, including most
recently Weinberg et al. We earlier reported similar findings in the
cat… Working in our laboratory, Herrington and Schneidau demonstrated
that in some subjects the shape of the waveshape released when a
particular geometric form was imagined closely resembled the waveshape
evoked by the actual presentation of that visual stimulus.” (B:CP:
p. 227).

This could be interpreted as I propose above, or it could mean that the
reference signal that is set results in a match through imagination, so
the anticipatory potential is actually a replay of a memory of the
stimulus into the perceptual pathways (as proposed in B:CP). John’s
emphasis is on memory phenomena, but it clearly applies to anticipation
as well.

  1. The more spatially specific a
    prediction can be, the closer to

primary sensory cortex we should find the cells that become active
in

anticipation of an event.

I interpret “more spatially specific” (a rather vague term) as
“lower order.” HPCT would then agree with this item. Of course
it would not agree with the contention that “prediction” is
involved.

  1. Cells that exhibit enhanced
    activity in anticipation of sensory

input should be preferentially located in cortical layers 2,3, and
6

and the prediction should stop moving downward in the hierarchy in

levels 2 and 3.

I’ve said that I expect the imagination connection to exist mainly at
higher levels. It can’t exist at order 1, and when it exists at order 2
we tend to treat the result as hallucination, not memory or imagination.
In HPCT reference signals, not predictions, move downward in the
hierarchy.

  1. One class of cells in layers
    2 and 3 should preferentially receive

input from layer 6 cells in higher cortical regions.

In HPCT, cells in comparators at lower orders receive input from higher
orders, but I don’t know anything about what specific layers do. Of
course systems at all levels receive input from systems at the next
higher level. The standard labeling of cortical layers does not necessary
correspond to position in the HPCT hierarchy.

  1. A set of “name”
    cells described in prediction 4 should remain active

during learned sequences.

Those cells weren’t described in your item 4 so I can’t say anything
here. Is a “name cell” connected with categorizing lower-order
perceptions?

  1. Another class of cells in
    layers 2 or 3 (different from the name

cells referred to in predictions 4 and 5) should be active in
response

to an unanticipated input, but should be inactive in response to an

anticipated input.

Nothing specific to say about this, but see next item. “Active”
isn’t a very specific term for what a cell’s output means, is
it?

  1. Related to prediction 6,
    unanticipated events should propagate up

the hierarchy. The more novel the event the higher the
unanticipated

input should flow.

This just corresponds to the perceptual hierarchy in HPCT. Of course the
only way to know that an anticipated event produces internal signals is
for the event NOT to occur; it is then created in imagination (see
above). If it does occur, there’s no way to measure the imagined signal;
it’s replaced by the sense-based signal. So “unanticipated”
just means “real” or “based on actual sensory input.”
And then HPCT says that the results of a disturbance should propagate
upward to whatever level is controlling the changed perception (the level
that “expects” it), but not above that (if control is
successful).

Completely novel events
should reach the hippocampus.

Too vague to comment on. What the heck is a “completely novel
event?”

  1. Sudden understanding should
    result in a precise cascading of

predictive activity that flows down the cortical
hierarchy.

Reorganization that alters a high-level control system should result in
altering reference signals, with resulting control activities, at all
lower levels.

  1. The memory-prediction
    framework requires that pyramidal neurons can

detect precise coincidences of synaptic input on thin
dendrites.

Does this mean that the logic level is implemented by pyramidal cells?
There’s no other reason I can think of that precise coincidences should
matter.

  1. Representations move down
    the hierarchy with training.

I mentioned yesterday that tasks initially considered cognitive would
tend to be replaced by control at the lowest level where the same result
could be obtained.

  1. Invariant representations
    should be found in all cortical areas.

In HPCT, computation of invariants is what perceptual input functions do
at all levels of organization.

Best,

Bill P.

[Martin Taylor 2004.12.31.18.00]

[From Bruce Gregory (2004.1229.1705)]

As far as I know, all surprise is conscious.

I guess that is all that you are aware of :slight_smile:

Martin