reporting back

CSGnet Archive CSG2003
1

[From Bill Williams UMKC 28 January 2003 11:30 AM]

  I've been out of service for the past couple weeks. I've had a moderately
severe case of the flu with respiratory involvement. Nothing of any real
consequence, but serious enough to make any productive thinking at least of
of some sorts impossible. I'm just now recovered to the point where I can
enjoy being warm without feeling feverish, and cool without feeling
chilled.

JUst now when I tried to access my email, the first time in a couple of
weeks, it seems that it has crashed once again and whatever came in after
whenever is gone. Address for yet another account Bill.Williams@email.ro

I could have just as well done without hearing Rick's difficulties with the
baseball fielder paper. It seems like so basic an illustration of control
that how could it go wrong? Rick has my sympathy, and I'll eagerly await
the chance to read the ref's comments. I do remember, however, when Herbert
Simon came to Boulder, that he said that explaining how people catch a ball
is a very difficult problem. Recently I by accedent found a paper by Simon
( mid 1950's )where he considered how to control an inventory. It took
pages and pages where integrals flew like snow to come to some very basic
conclusions. As far as I know he never considered control theory seriously
after that which was too bad. I don't think much of the work he got a
nobel for.

Interesting, being moderately ill seems to have acted like a low-pass
filter and I made a lot of progress ( I think ) organizing an introduction
to a book on control theory applications in econmics. Given the very
limited extent to which I could think constrained my attention to really
simple arguments and one of them seems to work quite well as an
introduction.

best

Bill Williams

2

I’ve been out of service for
the past couple weeks. I’ve had a moderately

severe case of the flu with respiratory involvement. Nothing of any
real

consequence, but serious enough to make any productive thinking at least
of

of some sorts impossible. I’m just now recovered to the point where
I can

enjoy being warm without feeling feverish, and cool without feeling

chilled.
Simon came to Boulder, that he said
that explaining how people catch a ball

is a very difficult problem. Recently I by accedent found a paper
by Simon

( mid 1950’s )where he considered how to control an inventory. It
took

pages and pages where integrals flew like snow to come to some very
basic

conclusions. As far as I know he never considered control theory
seriously

after that which was too bad. I don’t think much of the work he got
a

nobel for.
[From Bill Powers (2003.01.28.1420 MST)]

Bill Williams UMKC 28 January 2003 11:30
AM

My sympathies, Bill. I’m cc-ing this to the new address you gave,
assuming that you would not yet have had time to resubscribe to CSGnet
from the new address. I’ll attach econ004.zip to a separate post, in case
that was lost, too. I had send a long explanatory post to CSGnet, which I
will also send direct to you. The net has been so quiet that I figured we
may as well use it for our modeling efforts.

I look forward to your advice about what to do with the latest program.
While it’s obviously very rudimentary when you think of all the details
of economic processes that remain to be incorporated in it, it does show
some phenomena of interest. Most generally, it shows how complex behavior
can arise from interactions of just a few simple control systems –
interactions which a naive person might think are evidence of complex
planning and rational judgements about what actions to take. I’m hoping
that some of your students can be induced to explore the model, even in
this preliminary form. Once they get the idea of how this sort of
simulation is put together, they (or at least you) should be able to
provide some direction as to where we go from here.

I do remember, however, when Herbert

I heard Simon speak at Northwestern in the 1970s, all about the Logic
Theorist and the research involved in designing the chess player he
created with Shaw and Newell. Afterward, I wrote to him, proposing that
the strategies people use in proving theorems, and which he incorporated
into his programs, involve control-system processes – setting a goal,
judging how far from it the solution is, and turning the difference into
actions that tend to make the difference smaller. He wrote a very curt
note back – I may still have it somewhere in a file – saying that
control theory had absolutely nothing to do with it. I thought,
“Same to you, buddy,” and crossed him off my list.

Well, rest and get better.

Best,

Bill P.

···

Interesting, being
moderately ill seems to have acted like a low-pass

filter and I made a lot of progress ( I think ) organizing an
introduction

to a book on control theory applications in econmics. Given the
very

limited extent to which I could think constrained my attention to
really

simple arguments and one of them seems to work quite well as an

introduction.

best

Bill Williams