Test of variable under conflict

[From Bill Powers (2000.10.29.0336 MST)]

Bruce Nevin (2000.10.28.2011 EDT)--

I like the roll you're on lately. I think you've suddenly discovered
something about applying the principles of hierarchical control.

But why is there a moment of hesitation? Why doesn't the sequence begin
without pause the moment the ice cream arrives? Is it possible that the
pause, and the looking at both places where you want your hand to be, is
evidence of going up a level?

Maybe the initial hestitation is evidence of conflict (you want to move
your hand both ways at once), and it gets resolved by going up a level and
turning on an alternation sequence. Any time you do something differently
from the way you usually do it, I would guess there has been a little
reorganization. Of course if the problem is of a category that is familiar,
the solution may also be familiar and only a tiny change is required to
switch to using it. The switch could conceivably be automatic, once learned.

The pause is slight. This may be evidence that for eating and typing, the
solution to the conflict is so familiar as to be obvious. For a different
conflict the hesitation may be longer -- maybe an example is get out of the
way of the fire truck vs. wait for the red light.

I see that I just said the same thing a different way.

Of course, in a slightly different situation the sequence {eat-type-eat
...} would begin without pause. Interesting question: what are those
differences?

I think that behaviorists would speak in terms of "discriminative stimuli."
Of course it's not the stimuli that are doing the discriminating, but some
higher system that can assess the situation and employ the lower-level
control processes appropriate to it -- "appropriateness" being a
perception, of course, and not an objective criterion. Better to say the
higher system employs the lower order methods that have been found to
maintain control in that situation in the past. And again I am saying no
more than what you said:

I would say there is no pause if you are expecting the ice
cream and you are anticipating eating it while typing.

Interesting question: how does a "general-purpose" function get the
perceptual input signals for a specific purpose?

What makes the purpose specific are the lower-order details, not the
general-purpose input function. This is an important aspect of the
hierarchical model. It's always tempting to speak of a higher-order system
as if it knew about all the lower levels, because the lower levels are
always involved in its operation. But a categorizing function (for example)
is capable _only_ of determining the category to which its input signals
belong -- it doesn't know what those signals are about. The same goes for a
logic perception. If the perception is p = x XOR y, then if the signal x is
present and the signal y is not present, or y is present and x is not
present, the signal p will be turned on. We can completely describe the
logic perceiver without any knowledge of what x and y stand for. It's only
at the lower levels where the signals x and y originate that we can
distinguish one XOR function from another.

If this were not so, we would have a homunculus problem, because every
level of perception would have to have the properties of all the levels
below it, in infinite regress. The fullness of experience is represented
not by any one level of perception, but by all of them operating at the
same time, each ignorant of all the other levels and even of other
perceptions at the same level. The different levels of signals come
together to form subjective experience only to the extent that awareness
can encompass them. I can see, dimly, a concept of awareness as a system
that treats the hierarchy as its environment, and which knows of that
environment only as a shifting series of subsets of the totality of
perceptual signals in all systems at all levels. Pretty vague, I know, but
what can you expect from a non-guru?

Subjectively, it seems like attention goes to the point of conflict as a
kind of
"What's stopping my hand from moving?"
"What's stopping my hand from moving in order to { type | feed me }."
"What's stopping me from { typing | eating }?"
"Oh: just interrupt for a spoonful now and then. I know how to do that."
"Without interrupting my train of thought ... which was ... oh, right ... "

Lovely.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bruce Gregory (2000.1029.0808)]

Bill Powers (2000.10.29.0336 MST)

The different levels of signals come
together to form subjective experience only to the extent that awareness
can encompass them. I can see, dimly, a concept of awareness as a system
that treats the hierarchy as its environment, and which knows of that
environment only as a shifting series of subsets of the totality of
perceptual signals in all systems at all levels. Pretty vague, I know, but
what can you expect from a non-guru?

Actually, the clearest statement I've encountered to date. It's a long way
from a model, but it points to what the model must be able to do.

BG

[From Bruce Gregory (2000.1029.1237)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.0915 PDT)

So is the following a correct interpretation of a "no compromise
win-win negotiation": it's "no comprormise, win-win" if all parties
to the negotiation achieve a common higher level goal, even if some
or all parties have to compromise significantly on lower level
goals? If so, then I would certainly agree that the negotiation
between the IA and Tom is another example of "no comprormise, win-
win" and we can write off this disagreement to my simple inability
to understand the English language.

Is it not so that in some sense the highest level goals are those we
"really" care about? In that sense we don't really care about our
lower-level goals in the same way that we don't really care about our
behavior as long as our goals are realized. As long as higher level goals
are accomplished, we can afford to compromise on lower level goals and
still "win.". Or so it seems to me.

BG

[From Rick Marken (2000.10.29.0915 PDT)]

Bill Powers (2000.10.27.1528 MDT)--

The concept of "win-win" does not mean that one of the original
reference conditions prevails over the other. It means that both
parties can agree, afterward, that what they _really_ wanted (as
opposed to the lower level goals which were only means to an
end) has been satisfied.

Me:

Yes. But doesn't this require that the parties _really_ wanted
higher level goals that could be satisfied by finding commonly
acceptable (and acheivable) settings of the lower level
references?

Bruce Nevin (2000.10.29.0017 EDT)

Yes. As opposed to other higher level goals that could not be so
satisfied. It's a pleasant discovery. Those other higher level
goals were the end to which Bill referred:

OK. So let me see if I understand. If the parties to a negotiation
discover higher level goals that can be satisfied, then it's a "no
compromise, win-win negotiation", even if lower level goals remain
manifestly unsatisfied? That seems to be the lesson of the King
Solomon example. Both mothers "win" the negotiation because they
keep the child alive. But to achieve this higher level goal (desired
by only one party to the negotiation, incidentally), the true mother
(were it not for Solomon's intervention) would be compromising on
what I presume is a very important lower level goal to her: raising
her own child.

So is the following a correct interpretation of a "no compromise
win-win negotiation": it's "no comprormise, win-win" if all parties
to the negotiation achieve a common higher level goal, even if some
or all parties have to compromise significantly on lower level
goals? If so, then I would certainly agree that the negotiation
between the IA and Tom is another example of "no comprormise, win-
win" and we can write off this disagreement to my simple inability
to understand the English language.

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: marken@mindreadings.com
mindreadings.com

[From Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1100 PDT)]

Me:

So is the following a correct interpretation of a "no compromise
win-win negotiation": it's "no compromise, win-win" if all parties
to the negotiation achieve a common higher level goal, even if some
or all parties have to compromise significantly on lower level
goals?

Bruce Gregory (2000.1029.1237)

...As long as higher level goals are accomplished, we can afford
to compromise on lower level goals and still "win.".

OK. I see. It was the word "no" in "no compromise" that I didn't
understand. I thought it meant "none" but it actually means
"a great deal of". So this has been another tempest in a
teapot. I agree that Fisher/Ury certainly do describe a "no
compromise, win-win" approach to negotiation.

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: marken@mindreadings.com
mindreadings.com

[From Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1120)]

Me:

So let me see if I understand. If the parties to a negotiation
discover higher level goals that can be satisfied, then it's a
"no compromise, win-win negotiation", even if lower level goals
remain manifestly unsatisfied?

Bruce Nevin (2000.10.29.1325 EST)--

Nope.

Gee. Just when I thought I understood "no compromise win-win".

The lower-level goals are satisfied because they are now ends for
different means.

Were the true mother's lower level goals satisfied when she
satisfied her higher level goal of keeping her child alive by
giving it to the false mother?

Best

Rick

···

---
Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: marken@mindreadings.com
mindreadings.com

[From Bruce Gregory (2000.1029.1525)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1100 PDT)

OK. I see. It was the word "no" in "no compromise" that I didn't
understand. I thought it meant "none" but it actually means
"a great deal of". So this has been another tempest in a
teapot. I agree that Fisher/Ury certainly do describe a "no
compromise, win-win" approach to negotiation.

I don't know what Fisher/Ury were describing. I was simply offering my own
interpretation.

BG

[From Bruce Gregory (2000.1029.1531)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1120)

Were the true mother's lower level goals satisfied when she
satisfied her higher level goal of keeping her child alive by
giving it to the false mother?

I'm not sure why Bill introduced this particular example. I agree with you
that it has nothing to do with win-win.

BG

[From Bruce Nevin (2000.10.29.1313 EST)]

Bruce Nevin (2000.10.28.1235 EDT) and (2000.10.28.2011 EDT)
>I suspect that it is a familiar multi-purpose perception that is used
>e.g. for alternating eating and talking, drinking and breathing, and so on.

>"Oh: just interrupt for a spoonful now and then. I know how to do that."

I bet it's more likely something to do with tolerable interruption, rather than a sequence. Eating ice cream is easily interrupted for relatively extended periods. Only two parts of it require attention (and specifically visual attention): picking up a spoonful, and later returning the spoon to the bowl. Most of it can be handed off to control loops that don't require attention. Typing is interrupted anyway with activities that don't require the hands -- pauses to figure out what to say next, review what you've written, etc. At those junctures, the hand and eyes are available for the "get another spoon of ice cream" system to take charge.

However "paying attention" gets implemented, it will have to be able to deal with competing inputs from anywhere. That's what bothered me about a general-purpose sequence control system: inputs from anyplace that requires ... attention.

This may work as a mere side effect of attention going to the system experiencing the most acute error. If you're really engrossed in that next thought the ice cream lies forgotten even though your hand is free to take some.

Bill Powers (2000.10.29.0336 MST)--

I think you've suddenly discovered
something about applying the principles of hierarchical control.

Thanks, Bill, and I suppose after ten years I should learn something, but it still only qualifies as armchair speculation. The kudos goes to those who actually obtain data and make and test models.

         Bruce Nevin

···

At 12:36 PM and 08:12 PM 10/28/2000 -0700, Bruce Nevin wrote:

[From Bruce Nevin (2000.10.29.1325 EST)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.0915 PDT)--

So let me see if I understand. If the parties to a negotiation
discover higher level goals that can be satisfied, then it's a "no
compromise, win-win negotiation", even if lower level goals remain
manifestly unsatisfied?

Nope. The lower-level goals are satisfied because they are now ends for different means. The original higher-level goals were sought by setting lower-level references that resulted in conflict. The subsequent higher-level goals are met by setting lower-level references that do not result in conflict.

If the person still wants the original higher-level goal A, then that goal is in conflict with the subsequent higher-level goal B, and they have that conflict to resolve. However, if they give up the original higher-level goal A because they genuinely prefer achieving the subsequent higher-level goal B, that is what they really want, and there is no conflict. This can be a delightful discovery. They may not have been aware of their desire for B because their attention was engrossed with the conflict at the lower level of means attempting to satisfy A. Once their attention was relaxed enough to encompass other possibilities, they could become aware of their desire for B, and aware that it permitted states at the lower level that were not in conflict.

         Bruce Nevin

···

At 10:13 AM 10/29/2000 -0800, Rick Marken wrote:

[From Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1440)]

Me:

Were the true mother's lower level goals satisfied when she
satisfied her higher level goal of keeping her child alive by
giving it to the false mother?

Bruce Gregory (2000.1029.1531)--

I'm not sure why Bill introduced this particular example.

Bill [Bill Powers (2000.10.27.1528 MDT)] introduced it as "...a
perfect example" of how going up a level eliminates what I said
can't be eliminated in a negotiation: the need to compromise.

I think it turns out to be a better example of the need for
compromise, even when one or both parties to a negotiation
discovers a higher level goal that is more important to them than
any of their original lower level goals.

In the Solomon example, the true mother revises her reference for
perceiving her child in her arms as soon as she realizes that she
can control a far more important perception (the child's life) by
changing that reference. But I think most people who have been
parents realize what this means: the system in the true mother that
want's to see the child parented by herself will never get the
perception it wants. The true mother is obviously willing to live
with considerable error (pain) in order to produce a far more
important perception: her unsevered child.

The compromise made by the true mother is, I think, similar to that
made by the IA in the insurance negotiation; the compromise is
just more dramatically evident in the Solomon example. The IA seems
to have concluded that the cost and hassle of a lawsuit (like the
horror of a severed child for the true mother) far outweighs the
importance of controlling other variables. So the IA agrees to pay
the "fair compensation" amount to Tom (just as the true mother
agrees to let the child be raised by the false mother).

Of course, the compromise is far more dramatically evident in
the Solomon example because most of us can empathize with both the
mother and the IA and we can, thus, understand that what the true
mother's gives up (parenthood) as a compromise to save her child
causes far more pain than what the IA gives up (possibly a raise or
promotion) as a compromise to avoid the lawsuit.

By the way, was anyone able to figure out the no compromise
solution to Bill's ice cream conflict?

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: marken@mindreadings.com
mindreadings.com

[From Bill Powers (2000.10.29.1543 MST)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1100 PDT)]

OK. I see. It was the word "no" in "no compromise" that I didn't
understand. I thought it meant "none" but it actually means
"a great deal of". So this has been another tempest in a
teapot. I agree that Fisher/Ury certainly do describe a "no
compromise, win-win" approach to negotiation.

When the adjuster switches from desiring to pay a specific amount of money
to desiring to pay whatever amount is the fair replacement value of the
car, there is no "compromise." The higher system has dropped the initial
lower goal entirely, because the higher goal has changed. A compromise
would consist of raising the amount of money offered as a way of coming
partway toward the demanded amount. If the customer were in fact demanding
a specific amount, that compromise would probably leave both parties
unsatisfied. But when the customer changes the goal to "fair replacement
price," and the adjuster reorganizes enough to adopt the same goal, the
terms of the disagreement basically change, and simply offering a specific
amount of money becomes irrelevant. Now the only problem is to find a
mutually agreeable basis for determining the fair replacement value of the
car.

I must add that like all role-playing situations in which one has control
of all the imaginary players involved, negotiations like this probably work
a lot better in books than in real life. If the adjuster worked for a
company I used to insure with, his first offer would have been the last:
take it or take nothing, and in either case you lose your insurance. I
could prattle on all I liked about fair replacement value; the response
would have been (and was) "That's all I'm authorized to give you, so that
subject is closed."

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bill Powers (2000.10.29.1518 MST)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.0915 PDT)--

OK. So let me see if I understand. If the parties to a negotiation
discover higher level goals that can be satisfied, then it's a "no
compromise, win-win negotiation", even if lower level goals remain
manifestly unsatisfied?

Lower level goals are set by higher-level systems experiencing error. If a
higher-level system is reorganized, the same error can lead to sending
reference signals to different lower-order systems. The lower-level goal
has no independent existence; if no higher-order system sets a nonzero
reference level for the lower system, the lower system will be turned off
(no negative neural signals), or otherwise will do what it must do to
achieve zero error when the reference signal is zero.

What the parties to the negotiation must discover are not just _some_
higher-level goals that can be satisfied, but the particular ones that
formerly required the conflicting lower-level reference signal to be
satisfied. Then, by reorganizing _that_ higher-level system, the person can
choose different lower-level goals that will (a) satisfy the same
higher-level goal, and (b) not conflict with what the other person wants at
the lower level. One or both higher-order systems may have to be
reorganized (in the sense of correcting the same higher-order error by
using different lower-order means). When this is done successfully, the
higher-order systems in both parties can achieve zero error, which was
formerly prevented by the conflict between lower-order systems. Correcting
the errors in the higher-order systems is what "win-win" means, by my
interpretation.

That seems to be the lesson of the King
Solomon example. Both mothers "win" the negotiation because they
keep the child alive. But to achieve this higher level goal (desired
by only one party to the negotiation, incidentally), the true mother
(were it not for Solomon's intervention) would be compromising on
what I presume is a very important lower level goal to her: raising
her own child.

Yes, I almost commented that the biblical story didn't teach a clear
lesson. The principle here would have been clearer if _neither_ mother were
the true mother, but merely a concerned person who wanted the child to be
protected and raised properly. If that had been the case, dividing the
child would have been rejected by both women; both would have preferred for
the other to get the child. Note that the biblical story makes the
assumption that the non-mother wants possession of the child more than the
child's welfare -- otherwise that woman, too, would have opted for the
other one to get the child. But when you make up scenarios, you adjust them
so your point is (sreemingly) made.

So is the following a correct interpretation of a "no compromise
win-win negotiation": it's "no comprormise, win-win" if all parties
to the negotiation achieve a common higher level goal, even if some
or all parties have to compromise significantly on lower level
goals?

The higher goals already exist, and explain why the lower goals were
chosen: they were chosen as a means of achieving the higher goals. Because
of the conflict between the means of control, however, neither higher goal
can be met as well as possible. By reorganizing the higher systems so they
employ different means (assuming that such a solution exists), the
negotiators find a way for each to achieve the same higher goals as before
but without conflict. Thus the errors in both higher systems can be much
closer to zero.

If so, then I would certainly agree that the negotiation
between the IA and Tom is another example of "no comprormise, win-
win" and we can write off this disagreement to my simple inability
to understand the English language.

I don't think that understanding the English language is the problem.
Perhaps the problem was mainly forgetting that the lower goals were being
set by higher systems, and that because of the conflict, the higher systems
as well as the lower must have contained uncorrected error.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bill Powers (2000.10.29.1617 MST)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1440)]

By the way, was anyone able to figure out the no compromise
solution to Bill's ice cream conflict?

Buy another ice cream cone.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1720)]

Bill Powers (2000.10.29.1543 MST)--

When the adjuster switches from desiring to pay a specific
amount of money to desiring to pay whatever amount is the fair
replacement value of the car, there is no "compromise."

If this is what the IA actually did then, indeed, there is
no compromise. The IA suddenly changes from wanting to give
only a certain amount (an amount that conflicts with what
Tom wants) to wanting to replace Tom's car, giving Tom whatever
it takes.

This kind of solution strikes me as being possible only when
it is permitted by the goals of all parties and by existing
environmental constraints. It's like the solution to your ice cream
problem ("Buy another ice cream cone") and Marie Antoinette's
apocryphal solution to the peasant's bread problem ("Let them eat
cake"). It's a solution to a problem that was created by ignorance
rather than conflict. The IA/Tom problem is solved because the IA
learns that he can give Tom whatever Tom can demonstrate to be "fair
replacement value". The kids problem is solved because the kids
learn that they can instantly get an equivalent ice cream cone;
the peasants problem is solved because they learn that there are
warehouses filled with free cake right next to the empty bread
warehouses.

The higher system has dropped the initial lower goal entirely,
because the higher goal has changed.

Yes. If that's what really happened, then the initial lower
level goal (of giving a certain amount of money only to Tom) will
be varied, as necessary, to achieve the higher level goal (giving
Tom fair market value).

But it seems to me that what actually happened in the little
role play beteen the IA and Tom had nothing to do with changing
higher level goals. I think Tom's threat of a lawsuit was not
a minor part of the negotiation. I think the IA, always controlling
for paying as little as possible and, possibly, for protecting the
public reputation of the insurance company, would probably take
the possible costs and embarassment of a lawsuit into account. The
IA's apparent "up a level" experience (suddenly wanting to pay
Tom "fair replacement value") is more likely the IA's attempt to
find a compromise that eliminates the cost and embarassment of
a lawsuit while not giving away the insurance company store.

The negotiation between the IA and Tom looked to me just like
the negotation between my insurance company and my lawyer (several
years ago when my car was stolen);. The insurance company offered
me a fixed (small) amount as settlement. But as soon as they got a
letter from my attorney they instantly went "up a level" and started
offering "fair compensation". I can tell you for a fact that this
did not happen because my lawyer knows anything about PCT or "win-
win" negotiation. He knows what insurance companies are controlling
for: paying out as little as possible and avoiding lawsuits. He
knows that insurance companies will compromise and pay more if it
will remove the threat of lawsuit.

At least, that's what it seemed like to me.

Best

Rick

···

--

Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: marken@mindreadings.com
mindreadings.com

[From Bruce Gregory (2000.1029.2037)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1720)

The negotiation between the IA and Tom looked to me just like
the negotation between my insurance company and my lawyer (several
years ago when my car was stolen);. The insurance company offered
me a fixed (small) amount as settlement. But as soon as they got a
letter from my attorney they instantly went "up a level" and started
offering "fair compensation". I can tell you for a fact that this
did not happen because my lawyer knows anything about PCT or "win-
win" negotiation. He knows what insurance companies are controlling
for: paying out as little as possible and avoiding lawsuits. He
knows that insurance companies will compromise and pay more if it
will remove the threat of lawsuit.

At least, that's what it seemed like to me.

Sounds reasonable to me. Also sounds like it might be a win-win situation,
if it was most important to the adjuster to pay as little money as he had
to. (You might have gotten more by suing.)

BG

[From Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1120)]
Were the true mother's lower level goals satisfied when she
satisfied her higher level goal of keeping her child alive by
giving it to the false mother?

I agree with you that the story of Solomon and the contested infant does not represent a win-win solution for the two women. I disagree with Bill Powers (2000.10.27.1528 MDT) if he proposed that it was (it's not clear that he did):

That's because you are not considering the possibility that a higher goal
is more important to the negotiating parties than either of the original
lower-level positions. King Solomon's solution of the conflict between two
women each of whom claimed the same infant as her child is a perfect example.
By proposing that the child be cut in two and shared between the women,
Solomon reminded everyone of the higher goals involved, beyond mere
possession of the child.

Going to a higher level does not guarantee resolution of a conflict. It may be a necessary condition, but it is not a sufficient one. And in a win-win solution, one party who stays stuck at the lower level prevents resolution. ("Stays stuck" means continues controlling their original higher-level variable by means of a conflict-producing value of the lower-level variable.) As I recall the story, the false mother accepted Solomon's proposal to divide the child with a sword. Doesn't seem like she controlled the same higher-level variable that the mother did. She stayed stuck at the lower level. The conflict was over possession of the baby. The point of the story was that Solomon figured out who the real mother was by putting himself in conflict with her control of a different variable (live vs. dead baby).

         Bruce Nevin

···

At 12:18 PM 10/29/2000 -0800, Rick Marken wrote:

[From Bruce Nevin (2000.10.29.2112 EST)]

Bill Powers (2000.10.29.1543 MST)

I must add that like all role-playing situations in which one has control
of all the imaginary players involved, negotiations like this probably work
a lot better in books than in real life.

In the story I quoted they are not imaginary players. Or at least I believed Fisher and Ury when they said that their examples are fairly faithful transcripts of actual events. If believing them is an issue, there is a substantial case history since then, where there is no question about imaginary players.

I can't speak to the hard-core adjuster you encountered, other than the truism that individuals do vary, on both sides of the conflict. Tom's best alternative was Small Claims Court. Maybe you felt you had none.

Here's another example from Fisher & Ury. I scanned this and then decided it wasn't needed. I hope I don't violate copyright by quoting so extensively.

Getting them to play: The case of Jones Realty and Frank Turnbull

The following real-life example of a negotiation between a landlord and tenant should give you a feel for how you might deal with a party who is reluctant to engage in principled negotiation. It illustrates what it means to change the game by starting to play a new one.

The case in brief. Frank Turnbull rented an apartment in March from Jones Realty for $300 a month. In July, when he and his roommate, Paul, wanted to move out, Turnbull learned that the apartment was under rent control. The maximum legal rent was $233 a month - $67 less than he had been paying.

Disturbed that he had been overcharged, Turnbull called on Mrs. Jones of Jones Realty to discuss the problem. At first, Mrs. Jones was unreceptive and hostile. She claimed to be right and accused Turnbull of ingratitude and blackmail. After several long negotiating sessions, however, Mrs. Jones agreed to reimburse Turnbull and his roommate. Her tone in the end became friendlier and apologetic.

Throughout, Turnbull used the method of principled negotiation. Presented below is a selection of the exchanges that took place during the negotiation. Each exchange is headed by a stock phrase that a principled negotiator might use in any similar situation. Following each exchange is an analysis of the theory that lies behind it and its impact.

"Please correct me if I'm wrong"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: Mrs. Jones, I've just learned-please correct me if I'm wrong - that our apartment's under rent control. We've been told that the legal maximum rent is $233 a month. Have we been misinformed?
.................................................................

Analysis. The essence of principled negotiation lies in remaining open to persuasion by objective facts and principles. By cautiously treating the objective facts as possibly inaccurate and asking Mrs. Jones to correct them, Turnbull establishes a dialogue based on reason. He invites her to participate by either agreeing with the facts as presented or setting them right. This game makes them two colleagues trying to establish the facts. The confrontation is defused. If Turnbull simply asserted the facts as facts, Mrs. Jones would feel threatened and defensive. She might deny the facts. The negotiation would not start off constructively.

If Turnbull is genuinely mistaken, asking for corrections beforehand will make them easier to accept. To tell Mrs. Jones that these are the facts, only to learn he is wrong, would make him lose face. Worse yet, she would then doubt all the more anything else he says, making it difficult to negotiate.

Making yourself open to correction and persuasion is a pillar in the strategy of principled negotiation. You can convince the other side to be open to the principles and objective facts you suggest only if you show yourself open to the ones they suggest.

"We appreciate what you've done for us"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: Paul and I understand you were doing us a personal favor by renting us this apartment. You were very kind to put in the time and effort, and we appreciate it.
.................................................................

Analysis. Giving personal support to the person on the other side is crucial to separating the people from the problem - separating relationship issues from the substantive merits. By expressing his appreciation of Mrs. Jones's good deeds, Turnbull in effect says, "We have nothing against you personally. We think you're a generous person." He puts himself on her side. He defuses any threat she may feel to her self-image.

Praise and support, moreover, imply that the person will continue to deserve them. After being praised, Mrs. Jones now has a slight emotional investment in Turnbull's approval of her. She has something to lose and as a result may act more conciliatory.

"Our concern is fairness"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: We want to know that we didn't pay any more than we should have. When we're persuaded that the rent paid measures up fairly to the time spent in the apartment, we'll call it even and move out.
.................................................................

Analysis. Turnbull takes a basic stand on principle and announces his intention to stick to it; he must be persuaded on the basis of principle. At the same time, he lets Mrs. Jones know he is open to persuasion along the lines of this principle. She is thus left with little choice but to reason with him in pursuit of her interests.

Turnbull does not take a righteous stand on principle backed up with whatever power he possesses. Not only are his ends principled but also the means he contemplates. His ends, he claims, are a fair balance between rent paid and time spent. If convinced the rent paid is just right for the time spent, he will move out. If the rent paid is excessive, it is only fair that he remain in the apartment until the rent and the time spent are in balance.

"We would like to settle this on the basis not of selfish interest and power but of principle"
.................................................................
MRS. JONES: It's funny you should mention fairness, because what you're really saying is that you and Paul just want money, and that you're going to take advantage of your still being in the apartment to try and get it from us. That really makes me angry. If I had my way, you and Paul would be out of the apartment today.

TURNBULL (barely controlling his anger): I must not be making myself clear. Of course it would be nice if Paul and I got some money. Of course, we could try and stay here in the apartment until you got us evicted. But that's not the point, Mrs. Jones.

More important to us than making a few dollars here or there is the feeling of being fairly treated. No one likes to feel cheated. And if we made this a matter of who's got the power and refused to move, we'd have to go to court, waste a lot of time and money, and end up with a big headache. You would too. Who wants that?

No, Mrs. Jones, we want to handle this problem fairly on the basis of some fair standard, rather than of power and selfish interest.
.................................................................

Analysis. Mrs. Jones challenges the idea of negotiating on r, the basis of principle, calling it a charade. It's a matter of will and her will is to throw out Turnbull and his roommate today.

At this Turnbull almost loses his temper - and with it his a control over the negotiation. He feels like counterattacking: "I'd like to see you try to get us out. We'll go to court. We'll 3 get your license revoked." The negotiation would then break off, and Turnbull would lose a lot of time, effort, and peace of mind. But instead of reacting, Turnbull keeps his temper and brings the negotiation back to the merits. This is a good example of negotiation jujitsu. He deflects Mrs. Jones's attack by taking responsibility for her mistaken perceptions, and he tries to persuade her of his sincere interest in principle. He does not hide either his selfish interests or his leverage over her; on the contrary, he makes both explicit. Once they are acknowledged, he can separate them from the merits and they can cease being an issue.

Turnbull also tries to give the game of principled negotiation some weight by telling Mrs. Jones this is his basic code -the way he always plays. He attributes this not to highminded motives - which are always suspect - but to simple self-interest.

"Trust is a separate issue"
.................................................................
MRS. JONES: You don't trust me? After all I've done for you?

TURNBULL: Mrs. Jones, we appreciate all you've done for us. But trust isn't the issue here. The issue is the principle: Did we 1 pay more than we should have? What considerations do you think we should take into account in deciding this?
.................................................................

Analysis. Mrs. Jones tries to manipulate Turnbull into a corner. Either he pursues the point and looks untrusting or he looks trusting and gives in. Turnbull slips out of the corner, however, by expressing his gratitude once more and then defining the question of trust as irrelevant. Turnbull at once reaffirms his appreciation of Mrs. Jones while he remains firm on the principle. Moreover, Turnbull does not just shunt aside the question of trust but actively directs the discussion back to principle by asking Mrs. Jones what considerations she thinks are relevant.

Turnbull sticks to principle without blaming Mrs. Jones. He never calls her dishonest. He does not ask, "Did you take advantage of us?" but inquires more impersonally, "Did we pay more than we should have?" Even if he does not trust her, it would be a poor strategy to tell her so. She would probably become defensive and angry and might either withdraw into a rigid position or break off the negotiation altogether.

It helps to have stock phrases like "It's not a question of trust" to turn aside ploys like Mrs. Jones's plea for trust.

"Could I ask you a few questions to see whether my facts are right?"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: Could I ask you a few questions to see whether the facts I've been given are right?

Is the apartment really under rent control?

Is the legal maximum rent really $233?

Paul asked me whether this makes us parties to a violation of law.

Did someone inform Paul at the time he signed the lease that the apartment was under rent control, and that the legal maximum was $67 lower than the rent he agreed to?
.................................................................

Analysis. Statements of fact can be threatening. Whenever you can, ask a question instead.

Turnbull might have declared, "The legal rent is $233. You broke the law. What's worse, you involved us in breaking the law without telling us so." Mrs. Jones would probably have reacted strongly to these statements, dismissing them as verbal attacks intended to score points.

Phrasing each piece of information as a question allows Mrs. Jones to participate, listen to the information, evaluate it, and either accept or correct it. Turnbull communicates the same information to her but in a less threatening manner. He reduces the threat still further by attributing a particularly pointed question to his absent roommate.

In effect, Turnbull induces Mrs. Jones to help lay a foundation of agreed-upon facts upon which a principled solution can be built.

"What's the principle behind your action?"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: I'm not clear why you charged us $300 a month. What were your reasons for charging that much?
.................................................................

Analysis. A principled negotiator neither accepts nor rejects the other side's positions. To keep the dialogue focused on the merits, Turnbull questions Mrs. Jones about the reasons for her position. He does not ask whether there were any reasons. He assumes there are good reasons. This flattering assumption leads the other side to search for reasons even if there are none, thus keeping the negotiation on the basis of principle.

"Let me see if I understand what you're saying"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: Let me see if I understand what you're saying, Mrs. Jones. If I've understood you correctly, you think the rent we paid is fair because you made a lot of repairs and improvements to the apartment since the last rent control evaluation. It wasn't worth your while to ask the Rent Control Board for an increase for the few months you rented the place to us.
In fact, you rented it only as a favor to Paul. And now you're concerned that we may take unfair advantage of you and try to get money from you as the price for moving out. Is there something I've missed or misunderstood?
.................................................................

Analysis. Principled negotiation requires good communication. Before responding to Mrs. Jones's arguments, Turnbull restates to her in positive terms what he has heard to make sure he has indeed understood her.

Once she feels understood, she can relax and discuss the problem constructively. She can't dismiss his arguments on the grounds that they do not take into account what she knows. She is likely to listen now. and be more receptive. In trying to sum up her point of view, Turnbull establishes a cooperative game in which both are making sure he understands the facts.

"Let me get back to you"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: Now that I think I understand your point of view, let me talk with my roommate and explain it to him. Can I get back to you tomorrow sometime?
.................................................................

Analysis. A good negotiator rarely makes an important decision on the spot. The psychological pressure to be nice and to give in is too great. A little time and distance help separate the people from the problem.

A good negotiator comes to the table with a credible reason in his pocket for leaving when he wants. Such a reason should not indicate passivity or inability to make a decision. Here, Turnbull sounds as if he knows exactly what he is doing, and he arranges to resume the negotiation at a given time. He shows not only decisiveness but also control over the course of the negotiation.

Once away from the table, Turnbull can check on points of information and consult his "constituency," Paul. He can think about the decision and make sure he has not lost perspective.

Too much time at the table may wear down one's commitment to principled negotiation. Returning to the table with renewed resolve, Turnbull can be soft on the person without being soft on the problem.

"Let me show you where I have trouble following some of your reasoning"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: Let me show you where I have trouble following some of your reasons for the extra $67 a month. One reason was the repairs and improvements on the apartment. The Rent Control Examiner said it would take about $10,000 in improvements to justify an increase of $67 a month. How much money was spent on improvements?

I must admit it didn't seem like $10,000 worth to Paul and me. The hole in the linoleum you promised to repair was never fixed; neither was the hole in the living room floor. The toilet broke down repeatedly. These are just some of the defects and malfunctions we found.
.................................................................

Analysis. In principled negotiation you should present all your reasons first before offering a proposal. If principles come afterwards, they appear not as the objective criteria which any proposal should satisfy but as mere justifications for an arbitrary position.

For Turnbull to explain his reasons first shows his openness to persuasion and his awareness of the need to convince Mrs. Jones. If he announced his proposal first, Mrs. Jones probably would not bother to listen to the reasons that followed. Her mind would be elsewhere, considering what objections and counterproposals she could make.'

"One fair solution might be . . . ."
.................................................................
TURNBULL: Given all the considerations we've discussed, one solution seems to be for Paul and me to be reimbursed for the amount of rent we paid in excess of the legal maximum. Does that sound fair to you?
.................................................................

Analysis. Turnbull presents a proposal not as his, but as a fair option which deserves their joint consideration. He does not claim it is the only fair solution, but _one_ fair solution. He is specific without digging himself into a position and inviting rejection.

"If we agree . . . . If we disagree . . . ."
.................................................................
TURNBULL: If you and I could reach agreement now, Paul and would move out immediately. If we can't reach an agreement, the hearing examiner at the Rent Control Board suggested that stay in the apartment and withhold rent and/or sue you for reimbursement, treble damages, and legal fees. Paul and I are extremely reluctant to take either of these courses. We feel confident we can settle this matter fairly with you to your satisfaction and ours.
.................................................................

Analysis. Turnbull is trying to make it easy for Mrs. Jones to say yes to his proposal. So he starts by making it clear that all it takes for the problem to go away is Mrs. Jones's agreement.

The trickiest part of the message to communicate is the alternative if no agreement is reached. How can Turnbull get this across - he wants her to take it into account in her decision - without upsetting the negotiations? He bases the alternative on objective principle by attributing it to a legal authority - the hearing examiner. He distances himself personally from the suggestion. Nor does he say he will definitely take action. Instead, he leaves it as a possibility and emphasizes his reluctance to do anything drastic. Finally, he closes by affirming his confidence that a mutually satisfactory agreement will be reached.

Turnbull's BATNA - his best alternative to a negotiated agreement - is probably neither staying in the apartment nor going to court. He and Paul have already rented another apartment and would greatly prefer to move out now. A lawsuit would be difficult, given their busy schedules, and even if they won, they might never be able to collect. Turnbull's BATNA is probably just to move out and stop worrying about the $335 overpayment. Since his BATNA is probably less attractive than Mrs. Jones thinks, Turnbull does not disclose it

"We'd be happy to see if we can leave when it's most convenient for you"
.................................................................
MRS. JONES: When do you plan to move out?

TURNBULL: As long as we've agreed on the appropriate rent for our time in the apartment, we'd be happy to see if we can leave when it's most convenient for you. When would you prefer?
.................................................................

Analysis. Sensing the possibility of a joint gain, Turnbull indicates his willingness to discuss ways of meeting Mrs. Jones's interest. As it turns out, Turnbull and Mrs. Jones have a shared interest in Turnbull moving out as soon as possible.

Incorporating her interests into the agreement not only gives her more of a stake in it but also allows Mrs. Jones to save face. On the one hand, she can feel good about agreeing to a fair solution even though it costs her money. On the other, she can say that she got the tenants out of the apartment early.

"It's been a pleasure dealing with you"
.................................................................
TURNBULL: Paul and I do appreciate, Mrs. Jones, all that you've done for us, and I'm pleased that we've settled this last probIem fairly and amicably.

MRS. JONES: Thank you, Mr. Turnbull. Have a nice summer.
.................................................................

Analysis. Turnbull ends the negotiation on a final conciliatory note toward Mrs. Jones. Because they successfully dealt with the problem independently of the relationship, neither party feels cheated or angry, and neither is likely to try to sabotage or ignore their agreement. A working relationship is maintained for the future.

Whether you use principled negotiation and negotiation jujitsu, as Frank Turnbull did, or a third party with the one-text procedure, the conclusion remains the same: you _can_ usually get the other side to play the game of principled negotiation with you, even if at first they appear unwilling.

         Bruce Nevin

···

At 04:03 PM 10/29/2000 -0700, Bill Powers wrote:

[From Bruce Nevin (2000.10.29.2245 EST)]

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1720)--

It's a solution to a problem that was created by ignorance
rather than conflict.

I don't know whether conflict is always created by ignorance, but when conflict continues IMO its longevity is due to ignorance. Specifically, attention is drawn to the control of the variable that the two systems want to perceive at two different values, and other possibilities are ignored, hence, ignorance. The more intense the conflict, the greater the gain, the greater the error, the less attention is permitted to expand to other possibilities. This ignorance is the reason alternatives to conflict are not noticed, other than the most primitive fight/flight alternative (avoidance).

But it seems to me that what actually happened in the little
role play beteen the IA and Tom had nothing to do with changing
higher level goals. I think Tom's threat of a lawsuit was not
a minor part of the negotiation. I think the IA, always controlling
for paying as little as possible and, possibly, for protecting the
public reputation of the insurance company, would probably take
the possible costs and embarassment of a lawsuit into account. The
IA's apparent "up a level" experience (suddenly wanting to pay
Tom "fair replacement value") is more likely the IA's attempt to
find a compromise that eliminates the cost and embarassment of
a lawsuit while not giving away the insurance company store.

Then all he had to do was to keep offering more money until Tom said OK. Why would he talk about anything except the money? Instead, he went out and found an ad for a car, and then he adjusted upward for mileage, radio, air conditioning, etc.

If Tom loses the court case, it's Tom's cost and no embarrassment to the company. The adjuster evidently is convinced that he would be unable to demonstrate to the judge in Small Claims Court (where insurance companies are frequently represented, by the way) that his monetary offer would be enough to replace Tom's car.

The negotiation between the IA and Tom looked to me just like
the negotation between my insurance company and my lawyer (several
years ago when my car was stolen);. The insurance company offered
me a fixed (small) amount as settlement. But as soon as they got a
letter from my attorney they instantly went "up a level" and started
offering "fair compensation".

You paid a lawyer. Tom didn't have to. You probably didn't have to either. But you didn't know that you had a choice.

I can tell you for a fact that this
did not happen because my lawyer knows anything about PCT or "win-
win" negotiation. He knows what insurance companies are controlling
for: paying out as little as possible and avoiding lawsuits. He
knows that insurance companies will compromise and pay more if it
will remove the threat of lawsuit.

The judge could include the lawyer's fee in court costs charged to the company if it were found that they were out of line.

Again, that example is not a scenario for role playing, it is claimed that it actually took place. If you have any friends in the insurance business, ask them what they think of it (in a neutral way, of course).

I did a little asking. Claimants frequently, perhaps typically inflate their losses, in the hope of haggling to a higher compromise figure. Most are ignorant of actual replacement costs, have not done their homework, and may be rather fuzzy about what exactly they have lost. I was told that an adjuster would be glad to settle a claim in this way, with the client providing detailed information and helping to determine the actual characteristics of the lost property and accepting book value. But that it might indeed take a bit of effort to jolt a jaded insurance adjuster out of his expectation of being met with exaggerated claims and aggravated haggling.

         Bruce Nevin

···

At 05:22 PM 10/29/2000 -0800, Rick Marken wrote:

[From Bill Powers (2000.10.30.0245 MST)]
Thanks a lot, Mr. Gates. I just spend a happy hour reinstalling Windows 98
after something happened to Winsock32x.dll and no amount of copying from
other computers fixed the problem.

Rick Marken (2000.10.29.1720)\

If this is what the IA actually did then, indeed, there is
no compromise. The IA suddenly changes from wanting to give
only a certain amount (an amount that conflicts with what
Tom wants) to wanting to replace Tom's car, giving Tom whatever
it takes.

Glad we're finally straight about that. Note the "If." _If_ the IA
reorganized in just the right way, there's no compromise. So at least we
can see a way for the story to work out as the author wants it to.

This kind of solution strikes me as being possible only when
it is permitted by the goals of all parties and by existing
environmental constraints.

Yes. But when you're making up thought examples, everyone is very cooperative.

But it seems to me that what actually happened in the little
role play beteen the IA and Tom had nothing to do with changing
higher level goals. I think Tom's threat of a lawsuit was not
a minor part of the negotiation.

I agree. That part sort of gets left out of the discussion. I haven't
actually read the whole story, so I ignored it too.

I think the IA, always controlling
for paying as little as possible and, possibly, for protecting the
public reputation of the insurance company, would probably take
the possible costs and embarassment of a lawsuit into account.

Well, I guess you can make up conditions so the scenario works out the way
you want it to, too. It's easy to forget that in a fictional story, there
isn't any "probably" or "really." What goes on is whatever you want to be
going on.

The
IA's apparent "up a level" experience (suddenly wanting to pay
Tom "fair replacement value") is more likely the IA's attempt to
find a compromise that eliminates the cost and embarassment of
a lawsuit while not giving away the insurance company store.

There isn't any "more likely," either. You can imagine anything you want,
and that's what happened.

Best,

Bill P.