Wishful Thinking

From [Marc Abrams (2005.02.0835)]

I suppose it was simply to good to be true.

Bill, is our conversation over?

Yesterday you expressed interest in a potential model if I could deliver one.

Was this ‘request’ a red herring? I didn’t think so, but it seems by your lack of a response that it probably was.

You said you ‘understood’ that you and I were ‘looking’ at different things and I believe you to be both right and wrong in this matter.

We are looking at the same thing. Just from different vantage points, with different goals in mind and different ideas about what the points of saliency might be. This last point though is a straw man.

Saliency is directly related to purpose, and since each of our purposes are different, the saliency points must be as well if we are each going to be consistent in what we are attempting to do.

Bill, your work is vitally important, and I am not asking you to forsake your love and interest for mine.

I asked for your support yesterday and maybe I need to spell out exactly what my expectations of that support entails. That is, what I would hope to get from you and others through discourse on CSGnet.

You asked for a model and said god was in the details. I agreed and added that data was vitally important to any attempt at building a model and I wasn’t even sure at this point if I was asking the right questions.

Framed a different way, I was saying I am not quite sure that I know exactly what data I need yet in order to build a effective model.

‘Building’ a model is not the difficult part. Getting one that represents what it purports to represent is something entirely different.

Mathematics can be a wonderful tool, but it must be used with a great deal of caution.

Mathematical reasoning is ideal for thinking about certain kinds of problems, and a real hindrance in attempting to address some others.

In order for deductive reasoning, or ‘mathematical thinking’, to be effective, the premises of an argument must be true. In fact, in deductive reasoning the veracity of any conclusion is known by the veracity of the premise. ‘Truth’, or ‘facts’ play no part deductive logic.

An example to illustrate might be helpful here;

Premise; Celestial bodies are made out of green cheese

Premise; The moon is a celestial body

Claim; The moon is made out of green cheese.

This is a perfectly legitimate ‘mathematical’ argument. Unfortunately the ‘facts’ are no where to be found.

How does this relate to the work we are attempting to do?

Well, numbers have certain properties, and mathematical operations have certain other properties. Are you as certain about how the properties of humans match those of the numbers. That is, what these numbers purport to represent in human processes.

I’m not at all certain. I think mathematical models provide extremely useful insights IF, and I reiterate here in big bold caps, IF the numbers are representative of the phenomenon of interest. And even then they are only gross simplifications of actual physiological processes.

I know you don’t disagree with me on this point.

Mathematical, or deductive thinking is NOT very useful for new discovery. It is very useful for ‘proving’ things that can be traced back to certain truths. I don’t believe we have many ‘certain truths’ in physiology yet. For discovery inference is needed, and inference implies both uncertainty and probability, not mathematical certainty.

Inference also ‘requires’ valid arguments. No less so then deductive reasoning, but the structure is a bit different and so are the techniques

Making a ‘mathematical’ model does not elevate something into the realm of reality. Relevant data might.

So, by ‘support’, one of the things I am hoping to get from any forum I participate in is some purposeful, constructive, and productive inferential dialogue going, so the right questions might be developed, data gathered, and models built.

I don’t need, nor do I want you or anyone else to build my model. What I would like from you and anyone else who has some interest in this area, is to provide the arguments and with the claims and evidence that supports those claims, in a manner that keeps the pile moving in one direction, and that is in a direction to better clarity and understanding of the issues involved.

If I am asking too much from you, or you have no real interest in where I am going please be forthright enough to let me know. Throwing mud balls at me will not deter me and makes you look rather small.

A lack of a response to this post will deliver a message of indifference to me.

I sincerely hope you find this worth your efforts.

Marc

I am, and what I am not, asking for here from you and others on CSGnet and what I would hope to get from you or any forum I am involved in, and as a member of

[From Bill Powers (2005.02.07.0855 MST)]

Marc Abrams (2005.02.0835)–

I suppose it was simply to good
to be true.

Bill, is our conversation over?

Yes, I think so. You’re so much smarter than everyone else, there really
isn’t any point in my exposing my ignorance any further.

If I am asking too much from
you, or you have no real interest in where I am going please be
forthright enough to let me know. Throwing mud balls at me will not deter
me and makes you look rather small.

Since I haven’t thrown any mud-balls, you should not feel deterred. You
are asking too much of me. I’m simply not equipped to deal with
you.

Bill P.

From [Marc Abrams (2005.02.07.1114)]

In a message dated 2/7/2005 11:05:19 A.M. Eastern Standard Time, powers_w@FRONTIER.NET writes:

I suppose it was simply to good to be true.

Bill, is our conversation over?
[From Bill Powers (2005.02.07.0855 MST)]

Marc Abrams (2005.02.0835)–

Yes, I think so. You’re so much smarter than everyone else, there really isn’t any point in my exposing my ignorance any further.
Yes, exposing one’s ignorance is a bit painful. But if you were man enough you might take that not as a slight but as some motivation to improve your knowledge and understanding of the issues involved.

Ignorance is bliss and you are in a most blissful state, and that is unfortunate for PCT and for those who depend on you for their information. People like Bjorn, who think your hierarchy is something chiseled in stone. Ninety-six and counting down on CSGnet Bill. You may not believe it Bill but there is a reason for the lack of popularity in your work, and with this list, and it’s not my posts

Looking the mirror is often painful but sometimes necessary, but I understand why you have no stomach for it.

If I am asking too much from you, or you have no real interest in where I am going please be forthright enough to let me know. Throwing mud balls at me will not deter me and makes you look rather small.

Since I haven’t thrown any mud-balls,
What do you call the preceding comment? A ‘love-note’? You can’t even see the contradictions from sentence to sentence in your own posts.

Save me from your sanctimonious horse-shit. You are a phony of the first degree. Oh, not an engineering phony. In that you are superb.

I’m talking about as a human being. You have no class, and no guts.

Bill, the real big difference between you and I is that I really understand how ignorant I really am. You really think you know something

you should not feel deterred.
You bet your sweet ass I don’t. I actually feel a whole lot more energized, thank you.

You are asking too much of me. I’m simply not equipped to deal with you.
THIS being the only true statement you have been able to come up with and address, and thanks for the belated honesty. You should have said this yesterday, before you asked me for my model, and saved us both a bit of time.

Marc

Here is wishing these post were not so personal or so mean.

I the words of Rodney King “Can we alllllllll just get along”

Cheers

MARK

Mean? How about TRUTHFUL???

You think his remark about my being ‘smart’ was intended as a complement?

Look Mark, I don’t have to take that kind of crap from anyone. INCLUDING a windbag like that. He can kiss my ass.

Just remember, I was the one who reached out to HIM, and I got back a bag of shit.

Why did he ask me for a ‘model’ yesterday when he had no freakin’ intention of even looking at it even if I produced one.

He ‘asked’ me for it to bait me, because asking for a model is Powers’ way of saying “FUCK YOU buddy, produce a model and then we can talk”

Here in Brooklyn when we want to say that we just come out and say it.

He has no guts, and no spine.

In a message dated 2/7/2005 5:31:22 P.M. Eastern Standard Time, DTSDTO@AOL.COM writes:

···

Here is wishing these post were not so personal or so mean.

I the words of Rodney King “Can we alllllllll just get along”

Cheers

MARK

[From Rick Marken (2005.02.07.1620)]

Marc Abrams asks:

Why did he [Bill Powers] ask me for a 'model' yesterday when he
had _no_ freakin' intention of even looking at it even if I
produced one.

Bill asked you for a _computer_ model because he (like me) would like to get
a better understanding of what you are talking about. Why not test rather
than just assume a person's intentions. In this case, the test is rather
simple: just produce a computer model and see if Bill looks at it.

I can assure you (with great confidence) that Bill (and I) will look very
carefully at any computer model you produce.

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

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From [Marc Abrams (2005.02.07.1935)

first, the post Rick responded to was not intended for public consumption. I thought it was a private post. But be that as it may I will not apologize because in it I expressed my true concerns and feelings. Sorry if I offended anyone with the language though.

In a message dated 2/7/2005 7:20:40 P.M. Eastern Standard Time, marken@MINDREADINGS.COM writes:

[From Rick Marken (2005.02.07.1620)]

Marc Abrams asks:

Why did he [Bill Powers] ask me for a ‘model’ yesterday when he
had no freakin’ intention of even looking at it even if I
produced one.

Bill asked you for a computer model because he (like me) would like to get
a better understanding of what you are talking about.
You can do that with dialogue and by asking questions as well. You think a mathematical model is the end-all and it isn’t. There are other ways of thinking about things and other ways of doing things.

ESPECIALLY when I stated quite clearly that my intent was to develop a model, but that I felt that getting reliable DATA for the model was my primary concern. That means developing a way of asking the right questions and developing a model that might actually relate to the way people actually do things.

I asked for his support in my effort and explained in detail what I wanted and why, and he came back real lame.

All I asked for was his verbal support. Nothing more, and he simply could not find it in his heart to provide it because of his immense inflated ego.

If what you were saying were true, AND IT ISN’T. You or Bill could have VERY easily asked me to either clarify a point or further explain a position I stated. But that seems to be something foreign to you and Bill.

Please tell me what a ‘model’ would have shown you that a question could not have answered? I’m all ears.

Why not test ratherthan just assume a person’s intentions.
What a WONDERFUL idea. Maybe one day you might even to actually attempt trying to do this but i doubt it. That would raise the possibility that you might be ‘wrong’.

Let me try and explain something to you. The reason you and Bill ask for the model and the ‘reason’ Bill turned against me was because of what I said about deductive reasoning. That my friend is the ‘logic’ and reasoning you do in your ‘modeling’. there is only one small TEENY WEENY problem with mathematical logic, and that is the logic is _NOT_necessarily CONNECTED to any FACTS.

For your review, I presented the argument;

Premise: All celestial bodies are made of green cheese.

Premise: The moon is a celestial body

Claim: The moon is made of green cheese

Premise: A living systems are control systems

Premise: A human is a living system

Claim: A human is a control system

BOTH are VALID mathematical ‘models’ and BOTH could be represented numerically. Is either claim actually TRUE?

THAT my dear friend requires a TOTALY DIFFERENT ARGUMENT and set of facts & data, and apparently in the court of public opinion you have not done a very good job of convincing people of your claim.

Maybe your claim is a weak one? If not, what is preventing people from accepting it and adopting it? Especially when they have been exposed to it.

You have NO clue as to why people feel whatever it is they prefer instead, and they prefer theory (x) because of …, and you don’t have a chance in hell of ever finding out, because you just don’t care enough about what someone else thinks and why they think the way they do.

A very strange position for a supposed Psychologist to take.

You are as smug as a bug in a rug. More power to you.

In this case, the test is rathersimple: just produce a computer model and see if Bill looks at it.
KISS MY ASS

I can assure you (with great confidence) that Bill (and I) will look very
carefully at any computer model you produce.
When you show enough concern AND respect to actually ask me some important questions I might think about responding to them.