[From Bruce Abbott (2009.09.24.1315 EDT)]
Bill Powers and Rick Marken have (re)started work on
developing a PCT-based model of the economy, in which are represented
individuals who control various perceptions via their economic activity
(purchasing goods and services, earning a wage, saving and investing, and so
on). I was surprised to discover that there are others who are engaged in
a similar activity, which has been labeled Agent-based computational economics.
A good place to start learning about this activity is the Wikipedia entry entitled
Agent (Economics): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent_(economics)
. This provides a general introduction to the concept of an agent as used in
economics, a description of the different categories of economic models, and a
number of useful links including one to the brief Wikipedia entry on
agent-based computational economics, which itself provides links to
researchers, books, journals, and groups involved in this effort. You can also
find software that can be used to generate these models.
Agent-based computational economic modelers probably don’t
model their agents as purposive perceptual controllers; more likely they are
modeled as rational decision-makers who have an unlimited desire for more of
what they want. (I haven’t read the sources provided, so this is just a
guess.) Even so, their efforts might suggest what entities need to be included
in any good economic model and how they should be interconnected, so those
models might be worth exploring.
Bruce
[From Bill Powers (2009.09.25.1719 MDT)]
Bruce Abbott (2009.09.24.1315 EDT)]
BA: I was surprised to discover that there are others who are engaged in
a similar activity, which has been labeled Agent-based computational
economics.
BP: I’ve referred to this a few times in posts. Six or eight years ago I
got in touch with Charlotte Bruun (in Denmark, I think) who had written
some Pascal programs about economic stuff. I found that it was called
agent-based economics, and it looked promising. Unfortunately most of it
was about simulating the way traders behave in the stock or commodities
market and didn’t have much in it about consumers or producers. Also,
they use a rather esoteric high-level programming language and I didn’t
want to take the time to learn it. I don’t think she was very interested
in my ideas, anyway.
BA: Agent-based computational
economic modelers probably dont model their agents as purposive
perceptual controllers; more likely they are modeled as rational
decision-makers who have an unlimited desire for more of what they want.
(I havent read the sources provided, so this is just a guess.) Even so,
their efforts might suggest what entities need to be included in any good
economic model and how they should be interconnected, so those models
might be worth exploring.
BP: I looked at some of the web pages Bruun suggested, and you’re right
about their models (though I didn’t get much detail about them). You
might want to look further, but my impression was that the entities they
wew most concerned with were pretty abstract rather than being observable
variables that we could pick up and use in our models. It seemed to me
that we already know what most of the observable entities are; what we
don’t have are things like price-earnings ratios and utility or utility
maximization, interest rates and dividend or bond yields, risk
assessment, etc. With my bottom-up approach it will be quite a while
before I even think about those things. I don’t know how much time I will
actually devote to this; it’s not a top priority except on some
days.
Best,
Bill P.