Control of reinforcement

[From Bruce Gregory (981016.1606 EDT)]

Rick Marken (981016.1250)]

1. Do you agree that controlled variables (PCT sense) are
real (observable) phenomena?

2.If so, then what are these variables called in conventional
psychology? In particular, what are these variables called
in textbooks on behavioral research (such as yours)?

Rick, you seem to be having a lot of trouble with this concept. I suggest
you read Bill's post of earlier today explaining what a cv is. It should
clear up some of your confusion. A cv isn't a "something", it is perceptual
entity that only gets this label by virtue of one individual controlling his
perception and a second individual with a similar perceptual organization
noticing that a perception is behaving in an unexpected way (being
stabilized against disturbances). Why don't you see if you can figure out
what this might correspond to in "conventional psychology" or "behavioral
research." It might be difficult, but you have a Ph.D. and I have every
confidence that you will make progress.

Bruce Gregory

[From Bruce Abbott (981016.1625 EST)]

Rick Marken (981016.1250) --

Bruce Abbott (981016.1055 EST)

I think it more likely that there is simply not sufficient reward
for lever-pressing at the higher ratios, given the animal's state
of hunger, and so responding collapses.

Is responding always being maintained by reward or is it only
when the animal is in a partcular state of hunger?

The animal responds for the reward to the extent that it is hungry and
doesn't have other pressing things to do (no pun intended) that would
conflict with lever-pressing and eating.

Why do you ask?

Any progress on getting those answers to my questions, by
the way:

1. Do you agree that controlled variables (PCT sense) are
real (observable) phenomena?

I don't know what you mean.

2.If so, then what are these variables called in conventional
psychology? In particular, what are these variables called
in textbooks on behavioral research (such as yours)?

Dependent variables.

Regards,

Bruce

[From Rick Marken (981016.1600)]

Marc Abrams (981916.1422)--

_Perspectives on Personality_ 3rd Edition. Carver and
Scheier Allyn and Bacon This is a _text book_.
...
Yep Rick, these conventional Psychologists don't have a
_CLUE_. Do you think "output" means behavior? But since CV
is not _specifically_ mentioned they are full of cow plop,
right? Pleeez.

Well, believe what you like. But the fact is that Carver and
Scheier talk a good game but they don't seem to know how to study
control. Sorry.

Me:

CVs are virtually _never_ the target of coventional
>psychological research.

Marc:

Well I guess the quote from Carver and Scheier turns this
into a bit of mush.

No it doesn't. Read their book. There is no research on
control described in it.

You _really_ should look at this text and look at the
_context_ in which this is all handled.

I _excitely_ read Carver and Scheier's 1981 book when it came
out. It was then that I learned that it is possible to give a
pretty darn good description of the control model and have no
idea what control is. It was quite a depressing experience.

Me:

He [Bruce Abbott] talks about CVs on CSGNet. But he talks
about them as though they were _theoretical constructs_.

Marc:

They are.

No they are not. See Bill Powers (981016.0952 MDT):

CV stands for "controlled variable." It is the variable that
an external observer would see being controlled.

A CV is an observation that _can_ be made by one who knows how
to make it. Try my "Test for the Controlled Variable" demo at
http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken/demos.html. If you have
a friend do this demo then you can observe the variables your
friend is controlling. When the large square gets darkened, for
example, then the movements of the large square are under control;
so when you observe these movements you are observing a controlled
variable. Notice how "real" this controlled variable looks. I bet
it doesn't seem any more theoretical than, say, the distance from
your hand above the floor (another observable variable that probably
is _not_ controlled).

Me:

He [Bruce Abbott again] doesn't talk about them as observable
variables, in the same class as independent and dependent
variables.

Marc:

CV's are _combinations_ annd could contain both independent
and dependent variables, they also could have imaginary
components.

The position of the controlled variable in the "Test..." demo
is a combination of _at least_ two variables; x position and
y position of the square. That doesn't make it any less observable,
does it?

The independent and dependent variables in conventional
psychological experiments are themselves typically complex
combinations of lower order sensory inputs. Think of all
the sensory inputs that go into making a perception of
"reinforcement schedule", the independent variable in many
operant conditioning tasks, for example.

Me:

he [Bruce Abbott} doesn't talk about them in his textbook on
how to study behavior.

Marc:

So what? Does that make him any less valuable to us on the
net?, or lessen his potential contribution.

Maybe the motivation for my current freak out was my discovery
that after 4 or so years on CSGNet Bruce Abbott's big contribution
to PCT is a new edition of his textbook containing _nothing_
about controlled variables or the Test. In other words, his
contribution to PCT is _less than nothing_. Does that make
him less valuable to us. You make the call.

Me:

Like all psychologists, he acts as though controlled
variables don't exist or as though they exist only in the
PCT model.

Marc:

Yes, Just like Carver and Scheier.

Yes. Just like Carver and Scheier.

Mind Readings is terrific. It's also 10 years old. B:CP is
terrific, thats 26 years old. Again, Besides Cziko's
addition to the hierarchy what _new_ insights have been
added, modified, In the last several years?

Cziko's addition to the hierarchy is not an insight; it's
just a thought. Now someone has to do the research to test
this idea. We don't need new insights; the big insight
has already been made by Bill Powers: behavior is the control
of perception. Now we need research and competent applications
of the model to real situations.

What difference does it make what conventional psycologists
think, if _we_ don't have a clue as to _what_ kind of
experiments should be done. or what kind of data, in what
kind of context is actually needed.

What conventinoal psychologists think matters becuase if they
don't think in terms of control they won't help us do the
research we need to develop a science of purpose. We (some of
us) _do_ have a clue what kind of experiments to do; what we
don't have is the time and resources. I'm not working at a
university. My job isn't to do research on PCT; I do that in
my spare time and I have other things to do in my spare time
besides research. I was hoping that people like Bruce Abbott
would lend a hand; Bruce Abbott's job _is_ to do the kind of
research we need. Yet in four years, Bruce has contributed _nothing_
to the database or literature on PCT. In that same time I have
developed a bunch of Java demos, some involving completely new
experiments, and put them out on the internet; I have published
a paper on PCT methodology and I am working on another paper on
controlled variables. And I've had to do this mainly in my spare
time. I think we would have made a lot more of the progress that
both of us would like to see if a few conventional psychologists
were working on PCT.

Me:

The goal of research on behavior is to discover what the
qi's >are in various behavioral situations.

Marc:

Simple, they would be various qo's and d's. Am I getting the
hang of it?

No. They would be things like "food arrival rates" or
"degree of symmetry" or "sweetness" or...

Me:

You can't learn about the behavior of living systems just
by tinkering with models.

Marc:

Really?

Me:

Really.

Marc:

How about answering the _rest_ of the paragraph?

Really, Is that how you account for your fundamental
understanding of qi? What about your cherished CV's? What
are they comprised of? How did you get your understanding
of coercion? What data do you have to support your claims of
your coercion model? What experiments have you devised to
get them? Talk the talk, walk the walk.

The coercion discussion could not be resolved by observation.
It was about whather the word "coercion" applied to a certain
kind of control and whether that control was involved in a
certain circumstance. Whether or not "coercion"was really
involved in a particular situation could not be tested; what
could be tested was whether certain aspects of behavior were
under control.

What about all the _other_ stuff thats going on? How do you
know _if_ the person would even be controlling for the
doorbell?

Gotta test it.

What about my other questions

All good ones. Why don't you work on answering them. I've got
to go out dancing with my honey (another thing that _happily_
keeps me from doing all the research you would like to see
done; yes, folks, I _do_ have a life;-))

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: rmarken@earthlink.net
http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken

From [Marc Abrams (981016.1934) ]

[From Rick Marken (981016.1600)]
Well, believe what you like. But the fact is that Carver

and

Scheier talk a good game but they don't seem to know how
to study control. Sorry.

Rick, my point was your _overstatements_ about this. There
is no doubt that they talk about the conrtol of behavior ala
Glasser. But to say they don't have a clue is not true.

Me:

CVs are virtually _never_ the target of coventional
>psychological research.

Marc:

Well I guess the quote from Carver and Scheier turns this
into a bit of mush.

No it doesn't. Read their book. There is no research on
control described in it.

Outside of the tracking experiments what other kind of
research has been done. I think it's unfair and fruitless to
blame others for things we can't do ourselves. .

You _really_ should look at this text and look at the
_context_ in which this is all handled.

I _excitely_ read Carver and Scheier's 1981 book when it
came out. It was then that I learned that it is possible to

give >a pretty darn good description of the control model
and have >noidea what control is. It was quite a depressing
experience.

Are there obvious experiments that current Psychologists are
doing now that could be made into PCT experiments? If so
what are they?

Me:

He [Bruce Abbott] talks about CVs on CSGNet. But he
talks about them as though they were _theoretical
constructs_.

Marc:

They are.

No they are not. See Bill Powers (981016.0952 MDT):

You mean this part?

"The CV is therefore an imagined aspect of the common
reality. It is (theoretically) known to observer and
controller only in the form of a perceptual signal, p...".

CV stands for "controlled variable." It is the variable

that

an external observer would see being controlled.

A CV is an observation that _can_ be made by one who >knows

how to make it. Try my "Test for the Controlled >Variable"
demo at

http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken/demos.html. If you have
a friend do this demo then you can observe the variables
your friend is controlling. When the large square gets
darkened, for example, then the movements of the large
square are under control; so when you observe these
movements you are observing a controlled
variable. Notice how "real" this controlled variable looks.

I >bet it doesn't seem any more theoretical than, say, the

distance from your hand above the floor (another observable
variable that probably is _not_ controlled).

I think you need to re-read Bill's post

Me:

He [Bruce Abbott again] doesn't talk about them as
observable variables, in the same class as independent
and dependent variables.

Marc:

CV's are _combinations_ and could contain both
independent and dependent variables, they also could
have imaginary components.

The position of the controlled variable in the "Test..."

demo

is a combination of _at least_ two variables; x position

and

y position of the square. That doesn't make it any less
observable, does it?

How do you observe someone's imagination?

The independent and dependent variables in conventional
psychological experiments are themselves typically complex
combinations of lower order sensory inputs. Think of all
the sensory inputs that go into making a perception of
"reinforcement schedule", the independent variable in many
operant conditioning tasks, for example.

Me:

he [Bruce Abbott} doesn't talk about them in his textbook
on how to study behavior.

Marc:

So what? Does that make him any less valuable to us on
the net?, or lessen his potential contribution.

Maybe the motivation for my current freak out was my
discovery that after 4 or so years on CSGNet Bruce Abbott's
big contribution to PCT is a new edition of his textbook
containing _nothing_ about controlled variables or the

Test.

Again, So what? I think most people are scared off by the
research that seems impossible to do. I'm thankful that
Bruce is willing to stick it out and try to make some sense
of ir. It would be real simple for him to say "Screw this. I
don't need it" I think we are all lookung to be able to
contrivute to the advancement of PCT. I don't think that
happens by bashing people. People give what they want to
give. Be thankfull he's willing to stay and try to figure
out a way to utilize his talents rather then bash him for
what you perceive to be under achievement

In other words, his

contribution to PCT is _less than nothing_. Does that make
him less valuable to us. You make the call.

He's here isn't he? So many others have just left.

Me:

Like all psychologists, he acts as though controlled
variables don't exist or as though they exist only in the
PCT model.

Marc:

Yes, Just like Carver and Scheier.

Yes. Just like Carver and Scheier.

I guess it's just something we will all have to learn to
live with.

Mind Readings is terrific. It's also 10 years old. B:CP

is

terrific, thats 26 years old. Again, Besides Cziko's
addition to the hierarchy what _new_ insights have been
added, modified, In the last several years?

Cziko's addition to the hierarchy is not an insight; it's
just a thought. Now someone has to do the research to test
this idea. We don't need new insights; the big insight
has already been made by Bill Powers: behavior is the
control of perception. Now we need research and competent
applications of the model to real situations.

You mean the kind of research _you_ can't define and the
applications both you and Bill are unwilling to devise. PCT
is not developed enough for any "applications" usable in the
real world, and _don't_ get me started on RTP

What difference does it make what conventional
psycologists think, if _we_ don't have a clue as to _what_
kind of experiments should be done. or what kind of data,
in what kind of context is actually needed.

What conventinoal psychologists think matters becuase if
they don't think in terms of control they won't help us do

the

research we need to develop a science of purpose.

I think your looking at the backend of the cow. I think
there is reluctance because of the difficulty in designing
and actually carrying out experiments with regard to PCT.

We (some ofus) _do_ have a clue what kind of experiments
to do; what we don't have is the time and resources. I'm

not >working at a university. My job isn't to do research on
PCT; I >do that in my spare time and I have other things to
do in my >spare time besides research. I was hoping that
people like >Bruce Abbott would lend a hand; Bruce Abbott's
job _is_ to >do the kind of research we need. Yet in four
years, Bruce >has contributed _nothing_ to the database or
literature on >PCT. In that same time I have developed a
bunch of Java >demos, some involving completely new
experiments, and put >them out on the internet; I have
published

a paper on PCT methodology and I am working on another
paper on controlled variables. And I've had to do this

mainly >in my spare time. I think we would have made a lot
more of >the progress that both of us would like to see if a
few >conventional psychologists were working on PCT.

Do you have a suggestion for Bruce or any of the other
Psychologists on the list. We got a bunch of them. I think
the question is the difficulty in devising experiments. Dick
Robertson, you have been with Bill on this adventure for a
while what's your take on this? Chris Cherpas, what are you
up to?

This list is stuck. As Bill noted, he is in a continual PCT
101 mode. Does anyone have any suggestions? The modeling is
important but that's going to take awhile.

Marc

[From Rick Marken (981016.1900)]

Marc Abrams (981016.1934) --

But to say they [Carver and Scheier] don't have a clue is
not true.

I agree. I never said it. I said they don't know about
controlled variables and, therefore, have never studied
control properly. They definitely have a clue about control;
they can _describe_ control system components pretty well,
for example.

Outside of the tracking experiments what other kind of
research has been done. I think it's unfair and fruitless to
blame others for things we can't do ourselves. .

Who is blaming others for anything? I'm just pointing out that
many others who _could_ (and who even say they _are_) are
actually _not_ studying control.

Are there obvious experiments that current Psychologists are
doing now that could be made into PCT experiments?

Possibly.

If so what are they?

You got me.

Marc:

They [controlled variables] are [theoretical constructs].

Me:

No they are not. See Bill Powers (981016.0952 MDT):

Marc:

You mean this part?

"The CV is therefore an imagined aspect of the common
reality. It is (theoretically) known to observer and
controller only in the form of a perceptual signal, p...".

Yes. of course.

Read it again. The "theoretically" refers to the _theory_
that the CV is known in the form of a perceptual signal.
Can you see the distance between your finger and the tip
of your nose? Can you control that distance? If so, you
can observe and control a controlled variable. In _theory_
what you are controlling is a perceptual signal that
represents the state of that variable.

I think you need to re-read Bill's post

I need to re-read everything Bill posts because no one else
posts anything nearly as good (with the possible exception
of me, of course;-))

How do you observe someone's imagination?

I don't.

It would be real simple for him [Bruce Abbott] to say
"Screw this [PCT research]. I don't need it"

I think he did that long ago;-)

I think your looking at the backend of the cow. I think
there is reluctance [to do PCT research] because of the
difficulty in designing and actually carrying out experiments
with regard to PCT.

Doing PCT research is no more difficult than doing regular
psychological research. Indeed, the difference between the
two involves little more than a shift of attention; instead
of attending to the relationship between independent and
dependent variables the PCT researcher attends to the
relationship between independent variables and possibly
controlled variables.

Do you have a suggestion for Bruce or any of the other
Psychologists on the list [for research].

Sure. Bill was even helping Bruce with a research project
on weight control. I don't know what became of it.

This list is stuck.

I don't think so. I've learned many helpful things from the
list and at least one published paper ("The Dancer...") is
a direct result of discussions on CSGNet. I think my current
project -- writing a paper on controlled variables -- will
benefit from my discussions on the net. I really don't think
it's the list that get's stuck;-)

Best

Rick

···

--

Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: rmarken@earthlink.net
http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken/

[From Chris Cherpas (981016.2340 PT)]

Marc Abrams (981016.1934)--

Chris Cherpas, what are you up to?

Well, Mark, like Rick, I'm not an experimental
psychologist whose 9-5 is to do basic research; I'm a
corporate research scientist who analyzes what millions
of kids are up to when they run a massive K-8 computer-based
curriculum, writes design specs for testing potential
improvements, and does a kind of modeling that gets
implemented in a probabilistic control system that runs
the curriculum program and collects the data.

I've got so many back-burner projects I'm in danger of being
investigated by the fire department; but the experiments I
officially design, have meetings about, and smuggle into
the teaching program, are directed towards figuring out what
and how to teach, like how to overcome the now-quasi-famous
probability errors that people seem to exhibit (e.g., asked if
it's more probable to go to the beach and see women or tanned
women, kids say tanned women). I do it because probability is
part of the math curriculum, and I want to improve it. PCT
is in the background of how I approach it, but the intergration
is far from complete.

I'd like to put a full range of perceptual control experiments
into the curriculum, but psychology for children isn't something
I could get approved to develop. If you really want to know,
I think kids learning about PCT, and especially how it relates
to understanding themselves, i.e., in a computer curriculum full
of experiments that gradually build up the hierarchy, would be
fantastic. I've got a 6 yr old and a 4 yr old -- they're still
young enough to not have been totally brain-washed with wrong
theories about who they are yet.

At this point, I've done zip for advancing the basic science.
I can't remember if you saw the article I published in a
behaviorist jounal saying why I was giving up on that approach
and learning PCT. I wrote it as way of reorienting myself,
though, not because I thought it was a contribution to
knowledge.

This list is stuck.

No worries, dude. A list is a bunch of individuals and
variability sleeps with one eye open.

Does anyone have any suggestions? The modeling is
important but that's going to take awhile.

See? Good suggestion already.

Best regards,
cc

From [ Marc Abrams (981017.0607) ]

Thanks for responding Chris but I was asking it more
rhetorically then I was specifically asking you for an
answer. But thanks for taking the time, You do interesting
work.

What is driving me crazy is stuff like this.

Rick makes statements like this:

"Doing PCT research is no more difficult than doing regular
psychological research. Indeed, the difference between the
two involves little more than a shift of attention; instead
of attending to the relationship between independent and
dependent variables the PCT researcher attends to the
relationship between independent variables and possibly
controlled variables."

_After_ saying things like, he say's

Me:

Are there obvious experiments that current Psychologists
are doing now that could be made into PCT experiments?

Rick:
Possibly.

Me:

If so what are they?

Rick:
You got me.

Rick para phrases me ( wrongly ) with

It would be real simple for him [Bruce Abbott] to say
"Screw this [PCT research]. I don't need it"

He put [ PCT research ]. I meant the list.

and the topper:

Cziko's addition to the hierarchy is not an insight; it's
just a thought. Now someone has to do the research to test
this idea. We don't need new insights; the big insight
has already been made by Bill Powers: behavior is the
control
of perception. Now we need research and competent
applications of the model to real situations.

So I guess this whole thing (HPCT) is just a thought until
someone can come up with the research to test the entire
hierarchy. We shouldn't talk about the hierarchy then. It's
not proven and just speculation. Like Bruce Nevin's coercion
models. Post a sign on the intro web page _NO NEW INSIGHTS
OR IDEAS WANTED ON THIS LIST. HAVEN'T FULLY TESTED AND
PROVED OLD ONES YET_

See ya folks I've graduated from PCT 101. I got a lot to
learn yet but RM bashing people all the time and the folly
of his statements make this list very aggravating. This
entire thread with Rick has taken up hours of my time and
was and is a complete waste. I'm gonna go see if i can do
some PCT modeling. If anything turns up I'll be back to ya.
You folks are terrific.

Marc

[From Bruce Gregory (981017.0825 EDT)]

Chris Cherpas (981016.2340 PT)

I've got so many back-burner projects I'm in danger of being
investigated by the fire department; but the experiments I
officially design, have meetings about, and smuggle into
the teaching program, are directed towards figuring out what
and how to teach, like how to overcome the now-quasi-famous
probability errors that people seem to exhibit (e.g., asked if
it's more probable to go to the beach and see women or tanned
women, kids say tanned women). I do it because probability is
part of the math curriculum, and I want to improve it. PCT
is in the background of how I approach it, but the integration
is far from complete.

My experience is that the mistake is often ours and not the students. We
assume that if we present the students with an abstract representation that
they can manipulate and repeat back to us, we have done our part and they
will do their part by "internalizing" the model and "applying" it to new and
unfamiliar situations. Great idea, but we have a mountain of evidence that
it never happens. In the example you give, the boys at least _will_ see more
tanned women when they go to the beach. Some people even go to the beach to
see tanned women. Very few go to the beach to statistically sample the
population and determine the percentages of various kinds of people are
present. If you want kids to be able to do this, you have to give them
_lots_ of practice, and not just _any_ practice, but practice at the task
you want them to master. I'm sure you know this, but I never fail to be
amazed at how often we ignore this fundamental principle in our practice.
I'm sure my students (who are being certified as new teachers) grow tired of
my questions, "What do you want your students to be able to _do_? What ways
have you arranged for them practice this skill?"

Bruce Gregory

[From Bill Powers (981017.0717 MDT)]

Marc Abrams (981916.1422)--

_Perspectives on Personality_ 3rd Edition. Carver and
Scheier Allyn and Bacon This is a _text book_.

Pg. 503
..."What makes a feedback loop special is that the
proccesses in it permit self regulation. As indicated in the
main text, the loops _input function_ ( they italized it )
iis it's _perception_ of the way things are. The
_comparater_ checks this perception against a _reference
value_ , assessing whether the perception and reference
level are the same. If they're not the same , the result is
an _output_ ( or a change in output ). The output is aimed
at reducing the discrepency between perception and reference
value.
   The system is called a "loop" because, when the change
in output occurs, it leads to another perception, which is
then compared against the reference value...."

Yep Rick, these conventional Psychologists don't have a
_CLUE_. Do you think "output" means behavior? But since CV
is not _specifically_ mentioned they are full of cow plop,
right? Pleeez.

Mark, this passage is simply a regurgitation of what Carver and Sheier got
from me, in part by reading my book and the rest through direct
communications during the writing of their first book. If they don't
mention controlled variables, it's because they really don't understand
that they're important. Also, you will note that they still persist in
explaining the operation of a control loop in terms of a sequence of
either-or events, despite my frequent advice to them that it would be
better to show the simultaneous and continuous nature of control processes.

Carver and Scheier are not "uncontaminated" conventional psychologists. But
they're not control theorists, either.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bruce Abbott (981017.1330 EST)]

Rick Marken (981017.0950), using his patented "MarkenLogic":

Apparently Bruce
Abbott (981016.1625 EST) has come to a different conclusion. He
says that controlled variables are the _dependent variables_ in
behavioral research. This suggests that things like rating
responses, response rates, reaction times, etc are controlled
variables.

Now Ricky, I'm going to say this v-e-r-y s-l-o-w-l-y, so you can understand it:

(1) I said that controlled variables are dependent variables.

(2) I did _not_ say that all dependent variables are controlled variables.

See the difference? I _thought_ you could! You're getting to be such a big
boy! I'm sooo proud of you!

Love,

Unca Bruce

[From Rick Marken (981017.0950)]

Bruce Gregory (981016.1606 EDT)--

Rick, you seem to be having a lot of trouble with this concept
[of cv]. I suggest you read Bill's post of earlier today
explaining what a cv is.

I did. It was, indeed, excellent.

A cv isn't a "something", it is perceptual entity

Right. That makes controlled variables just as real as mass,
acceleration, voltage, responses rate, reinforcement rate or
any other variable that we can observe (directly or as a meter
reading) because, like all these variables, cv's are perceptions.
It's _all_ perception. That doesn't mean that it's all make-
believe or all arbitrary. It means that it's all perception.
Science is about trying to explain why our perceptions
(observations) behave as they do. Those explanations are called
models (which are perceptions themselves).

that only gets this label [cv] by virtue of one individual
controlling his [or "its"; note the thermostat example -- RM]
perception and a second individual with a similar perceptual
organization noticing that a perception is behaving in an
unexpected way (being stabilized against disturbances).

That's correct. A controlled variable is a perceptual variable
(ie. a variable that can be _observed_) that is controlled by
some agent (a natural or artifactual control system).

Why don't you see if you can figure out what this might
correspond to in "conventional psychology" or "behavioral
research."

I already have. My conclusion is that controlled variables
correspond to _nothing_ that is typically measured in behavioral
research (see my paper "Dancer..." paper). Apparently Bruce
Abbott (981016.1625 EST) has come to a different conclusion. He
says that controlled variables are the _dependent variables_ in
behavioral research. This suggests that things like rating
responses, response rates, reaction times, etc are controlled
variables. I suppose that these variables might be controlled by
subjects. But I wonder how Bruce A. knows that these variables
are controlled. And I also wonder why, then, experimental research
in the behavioral sciences is aimed at looking for _effects_ of
independent variables on controlled variables.

Journals rarely publish experiments where there is no significant
effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable. If
dependent variables are actually controlled variables then one
would expect independent variables to have little effect on them.
Indeed, if an independent variable _doid_ have an effect on the
dependent variable then that would be evidence that the dependent
variable is _not_ controlled.

So it seems like Psychological Journal policy is just the opposite
of what it should be. Journals should only be publishing the
results of experiments where the independent variable has litle
or no effect on the dependent variable. Isn't that right, Bruce A.?
Or are the Journals just publishing data as a warning to
psychologists; articles that show which variables are _not_
controlled?

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: rmarken@earthlink.net
http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken/

[From Bruce Abbott (981017.1630 EST)]

Rick Marken (981017.1350) --

Which dependent variables are controlled variables amd which are
not?

Under what conditions, by whom? That is a matter that must be decided
empirically, is it not? I can tell you from empirical test that when
responding on ratio schedules, rats to not control the rate of
reinforcement, but do control for having food pellets available to eat, if
they've been deprived of food for a while and have not yet consumed many
pellets on the schedule. I can tell you that rats do not control rate of
reinforcement on variable interval schedules, that in fact response rates
decline with increasing average interval between food deliveries. I know
these things because I have spent the time and effort to perform the
experiments to Test whether rate of reinforcement is controlled on these
schedules. Tell me about all the empirical Tests for controlled variables
that _you've_ conducted over the past four years. We'd all like to know.
What are they, Rick? I'm sure it must be a very long list, and an
interesting one. What do we know now about controlled variables, because of
your efforts, that we didn't know four years ago?

Regards,

Bruce

[From Tim Carey (981018.-655)]

[From Chris Cherpas (981016.2340 PT)]

I'd like to put a full range of perceptual control experiments
into the curriculum, but psychology for children isn't something
I could get approved to develop. If you really want to know,
I think kids learning about PCT, and especially how it relates
to understanding themselves, i.e., in a computer curriculum full
of experiments that gradually build up the hierarchy, would be
fantastic. I've got a 6 yr old and a 4 yr old -- they're still
young enough to not have been totally brain-washed with wrong
theories about who they are yet.

Hi Chris,

I'd be really interested in hearing a bit more about this. My wife is an
RTC teacher at a school in Brisbane and her principal is really sold on RTP
and PCT. She was saying to me in a recent conversation that she thought
this stuff had more to offer than just discipline and she wanted to
investigate ways of incorporating it into the curriculum. I'd be keen to
hear where you're up to in your thinking with this.

Cheers,

Tim

[From Rick Marken (981017.1350)]

Bruce Abbott (981017.1330 EST)--

Now Ricky, I'm going to say this v-e-r-y s-l-o-w-l-y, so you can understand it:

(1) I said that controlled variables are dependent variables.

(2) I did _not_ say that all dependent variables are
controlled variables.

Which dependent variables are controlled variables amd which are
not?

Best

Rick

···

--

Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: rmarken@earthlink.net
http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken/

[From Bill Powers (981017.1708 MDT)]

Bruce Abbott (981017.1630 EST)]

I can tell you from empirical test that when
responding on ratio schedules, rats do not control the rate of
reinforcement, but do control for having food pellets available to eat, if
they've been deprived of food for a while and have not yet consumed many
pellets on the schedule.

Please pay careful attention to Bruce's words. It may be true that _rate_
of reinforcement is not controlled, but that leaves all other functions
involving reinforcement as potential controlled variables: for example,
average amount obtained per hour or per day. Bruce seems to be implying
(here less strongly than in previous posts) that if one particular function
of reinforcement, rate, is not controlled, control theory does not apply,
or is wrong. This is false. I hope that is not what he intends. PCT does
not provide hypotheses about possible controlled variables. That is up to
the analyst. The Test can only reject bad guesses.

I can tell you that rats do not control rate of
reinforcement on variable interval schedules, that in fact response rates
decline with increasing average interval between food deliveries.

Neither of these observations has anything to do with whether PCT is the
correct theory for describing and predicting what the rats do. This
description is particularly deceptive in that the mentioned decline of
response rates with reinforcement rates is actually a decline in both
response rates and reinforcement rates with increases in the interval used
in the schedule. These decreases on long-interval schedules come about
because the animals spend increasing time away from the lever. That
naturally decreases both rates, response and reinforcement, AVERAGED OVER
THE WHOLE SESSION. That average includes periods of continuous responding
and appropriately repeated reinforcement-events as well as periods of no
responding and therefore no reinforcement. There is no implication
regarding any causal relationship between reinforcement rate and response
rate. In fact, the ONLY causal relationship that can actually be observed
is the dependence of reinforcements on presses of the lever: no presses, no
reinforcements.

I would like to raise again a suggestion that I've brought up several times
before. The problem with operant experiments is that there is nothing to
compare the behavior to. What we need is a control experiment (traditional
sense) in which the only difference from the operant experiment is that the
bar-presses are emitted randomly. This is especially important in
experiments using randomly variable schedules. The inherent variability can
easily create the impression of relationships that don't exist at all, by
masking any obvious regularities. A Monte Carlo test can eliminate apparent
relationships are are functions of the apparatus and schedule alone.

Best,

Bill P.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bruce Gregory (981017.2017 EDT)]

Bill Powers (981017.1708 MDT)

Bruce Abbott (981017.1630 EST)]

>I can tell you from empirical test that when
>responding on ratio schedules, rats do not control the rate of
>reinforcement, but do control for having food pellets available
to eat, if
>they've been deprived of food for a while and have not yet consumed many
>pellets on the schedule.

Please pay careful attention to Bruce's words.

I try to, Bill, but I never succeed in reading into them the subtle attacks
on PCT that you and Rick discern. I'll have to try harder.

Bruce Gregory

[From Rick Marken (981017.1650)]

Me:

Which dependent variables are controlled variables amd which are
not?

Bruce Abbott (981017.1630 EST) --

Under what conditions, by whom? That is a matter that must be
decided empirically, is it not?

I think we're getting off course. In answer to my question about
what controlled variables are called in conventional behavioral
research you said "dependent variables". Then you said that not
all dependent variables _are_ controlled variables. So I asked how
I could tell the dependent variables that are controlled variables
from those that are not. Now you say that discriminating dependent
variables that _are_ controlled variables from those that are
_not_ is a matter that must be decided empirically, and I certainly
agree. The empirical way to determine whether or not a dependent
variable is, in fact, a controlled variable is by doing The Test
for the Controlled Variable.

So, in order to determine which dependent variables are controlled
variables, conventional psychologists must do something analogous
to The Test for Controlled Variables. But, according to you,
controlled variables are called "dependent variables" by conventional
psychologists. So the conventional analog of The Test for Controlled
Variables would have to be something like "The Test for Dependent
Variables". But that would be confusing, wouldn't it -- calling
the dependent variables that turn out to be controlled variables
"dependent variables".

So I guess what I want to know is whether, after they perform
their version of The Test for the Controlled Variable, conventional
psychologists have a special name for the dependent variables
that turn out to be controlled variables?

I can tell you that rats do not control rate of reinforcement on
variable interval schedules, that in fact response rates decline
with increasing average interval between food deliveries. I know
these things because I have spent the time and effort to perform
the experiments to Test whether rate of reinforcement is controlled
on these schedules.

Why did you go to so much trouble to find out what the rats _don't_
control? I could have given you a long list of variables rats don't
control without going to much trouble at all. Here's a start at that
list: experimenter's location in the lab, illumination level in the
lab, type and size of food pellets provided, etc...

Tell me about all the empirical Tests for controlled variables
that _you've_ conducted over the past four years. We'd all
like to know. What are they, Rick?

The "Hierarchy of Perception and Control" demo at:

http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken/ControlDemo/HP.html

is a start at studying hierarchical control using timing data;
that study needs to be refined but it does show dramatic time
differences in control of different types of variables: shape,
direction of movement and sequence. My model of catching a
baseball, combined with data I've been able to find in the
literature, suggests that people control vertical and lateral
optical _velocity_ (not acceleration or LOT) _independently_; and
it suggests new experiments that would further test this
hypothesis.

Ya know we're doin' what we ca'a'a'an.

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: rmarken@earthlink.net
http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken/

[From Bruce Abbott (981017.2155 EST)]

Bill Powers (981017.1708 MDT)]

Bruce Abbott (981017.1630 EST)]

I can tell you from empirical test that when
responding on ratio schedules, rats do not control the rate of
reinforcement, but do control for having food pellets available to eat, if
they've been deprived of food for a while and have not yet consumed many
pellets on the schedule.

Please pay careful attention to Bruce's words.

Yes, please do.

It may be true that _rate_
of reinforcement is not controlled, but that leaves all other functions
involving reinforcement as potential controlled variables: for example,
average amount obtained per hour or per day. Bruce seems to be implying
(here less strongly than in previous posts) that if one particular function
of reinforcement, rate, is not controlled, control theory does not apply,
or is wrong. This is false. I hope that is not what he intends.

What a strange thing to say, after I have proposed that availability of food
in the chamber is controlled, rather than its rate of occurrence. From this
you get that I am implying that control theory does not apply? It is, I
think, rather easy to see that this is not what I intend. (You weren't
taking your own advice to pay careful attention to my words, were you?) It
is also obvious that ruling out one CV does not rule out the possibility
that the rat's actions may be controlling some other CV. It's not the sort
of logical error I'm likely to commit.

I can tell you that rats do not control rate of
reinforcement on variable interval schedules, that in fact response rates
decline with increasing average interval between food deliveries.

Neither of these observations has anything to do with whether PCT is the
correct theory for describing and predicting what the rats do.

True, but they have plenty to do with whether your prediction, based on a
particular control-system model of operant behavior of your devising, is
supported by the evidence. In that model, decreasing the reinforcement rate
(by lengthening the average interreinforcement interval of the VI schedule)
was supposed produce an increased rate of lever-pressing as the rat
attempted to offset the reduced reinforcement rate. In fact the opposite
happened. The model is incorrect.

Not so long ago Rick was holding this prediction up as a crucial test of PCT
vs reinforcement theory -- PCT predicted that response rates would go up
when the interval size was increased, reinforcement theory clearly predicted
the opposite. If rates _had_ gone up I'm absolutely certain that it would
have been hailed as a clear victory for PCT. My, what a difference a datum
makes.

This
description is particularly deceptive

There I go again, trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes. How
fiendishly clever of me.

in that the mentioned decline of
response rates with reinforcement rates is actually a decline in both
response rates and reinforcement rates with increases in the interval used
in the schedule.

_Of course_ reinforcement rates decline with increases in the interval used
in the schedule -- changing the interval sizes is how we experimentally vary
the reinforcement rate.

These decreases on long-interval schedules come about
because the animals spend increasing time away from the lever. That
naturally decreases both rates, response and reinforcement, AVERAGED OVER
THE WHOLE SESSION.

Actually, because of the nature of variable-interval schedules, the observed
decline in response rates had little or no effect on reinforcement rates
until the response rates had fallen to extremely low levels. Furthermore,
the data in question are not whole-session averages, but the slopes of the
cumulative records, which indicate the rates of responding. On VI
schedules, this slope tends to remain rather fairly constant throughout a
session.

That average includes periods of continuous responding
and appropriately repeated reinforcement-events as well as periods of no
responding and therefore no reinforcement.

True. But on high VI schedules, most programmed interreinforcement
intervals are long enough that (a) reinforcement-events would not have
occurred during most pauses and (b) most pauses will end relatively soon
after a programmed interval has elapsed and the next reinforcement
opportunity set up. Reinforcement rate consequently is little affected.
And don't forget that the data consist of the times at which each and every
response occurred, not session averages. However, it is convenient to
report the result in terms of session averages, because those averages
reflect the typical rates observed at any time within a session.

There is no implication
regarding any causal relationship between reinforcement rate and response
rate.

But we can state with certainty that increasing X, the programmed interval
size (which is independent of the rat's behavior), reliably results in a
lowered response rate, Y. That is, the value of X largely determines the
value of Y under the conditions of the study. X is certainly having a
strong influence on Y, if not a "causal" one as you define the term. At the
same time, Y (response rate) is having very little influence on X', the
observed rate of reinforcement, at all but the highest VI values, when
response rate finally falls low enough to strongly affect the obtained
reinforcement rate.

Regards,

Bruce

[From Rick Marken (981018.0900)]

Yesterday [Rick Marken (981017.1650)] I asked Bruce Abbott
the following:

what I want to know is whether, after they perform their
version of The Test for the Controlled Variable, conventional
psychologists have a special name for the dependent variables
that turn out to be controlled variables?

I don't know if Bruce will help me out on this or not; he seems
to be a bit cranky towards me these days. So I just want to say
that I would really appreciate help on this from any of the
psychologists (or sociologists, etc) on CSGNet who might know
something about how behavioral scientists have delt with
controlled variables.

Let me give some context again. I am planning to write a paper
on _controlled variables_ (indeed, the current working title
is "Controlled Variables") which I want to try to publish in a
major psychological journal (the curernt target is Psychological
Review). The thesis of the paper will be that psychologists have,
by and large, ignored or been completely unaware of the existence
of controlled variables. The paper will explain what controlled
variables are, why they are important and how to find them.

What I need to know about are cases where psychologists _have not_
ignored or been unaware of the existence of controlled variables.
In particular, I want to find published psychological research
studies where the researchers _themselves_ did or said things that
indicate that _they_ were attentive to or aware of the fact
(or even the _possibility_) that some variables were being
_controlled by_ their subjects. I want to be able to include
references to these research studies in my paper.

I think such papers exist; I have found one or two in the baseball
catching literature. But even in these papers the evidence of
awareness of controlled variables is often fleeting -- a brief
mention of the "desired" state of a variable, for example. But if
there are other papers where the _researchers themselves_ seem to
be aware of the possibility that a variable might be _controlled by
the subject_ then I would like to get the reference.

What I _don't want_ are examples of research that can be
_interpreted_ (by you) in terms of controlled variables. I know
that virtually any research project can be explained in terms
of controlled variables. The problem with this is that such
explanations are useless until they are tested (it was easy to
explain operant behavior, for example, in terms of control of
reinforcement rate; but it turns out that what little evidence
we have on this -- since no tests have been done to determine
what variable(s) _are_ controlled in operant experiments --
suggests that rate of reinforcement is not a controlled variable).
The other problem with this is that it makes it seem like the
people who did the research _were_ aware of the possible existence
of controlled variables. I am only interested in reporting (in my
paper) examples of research where the researchers _themselves_
were _actually_ aware of the possible existence of controlled
variables.

If you do know of published psychological resarch papers in
which there is evidence that the researcher(s) knew about the
possible existence of controlled variables (it's not necessary
that the term "controlled variable" appear in the paper; just
any terminology or data collection that suggests an awareness
that the subjects were trying to get something for themselves)
please send me the reference in APA format: author (year), title,
journal, volume, pages.

Thanks

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken Phone or Fax: 310 474-0313
Life Learning Associates e-mail: rmarken@earthlink.net
http://home.earthlink.net/~rmarken/

[From Bill Powers (981018.0922 MDT)]

Bruce Abbott (981017.2155 EST)--

Please pay careful attention to Bruce's words.

Yes, please do.

Your words seem to be susceptible to various interpretations.

What a strange thing to say, after I have proposed that availability of food
in the chamber is controlled, rather than its rate of occurrence.

Granted, although I have a hard time imagining how you measure
"availability." How did you prove that "availability", rather than, say,
amount of food in the cup, was controlled?

From this
you get that I am implying that control theory does not apply? It is, I
think, rather easy to see that this is not what I intend. (You weren't
taking your own advice to pay careful attention to my words, were you?) It
is also obvious that ruling out one CV does not rule out the possibility
that the rat's actions may be controlling some other CV. It's not the sort
of logical error I'm likely to commit.

OK, I hoped not and now you say you don't make this sort of error. I can
only accept your claim until you disprove it (it doesn't take long: see
below).

Neither of these observations has anything to do with whether PCT is the
correct theory for describing and predicting what the rats do.

True, but they have plenty to do with whether your prediction, based on a
particular control-system model of operant behavior of your devising, is
supported by the evidence. In that model, decreasing the reinforcement rate
(by lengthening the average interreinforcement interval of the VI schedule)
was supposed produce an increased rate of lever-pressing as the rat
attempted to offset the reduced reinforcement rate. In fact the opposite
happened. The model is incorrect.

No, the opposite did NOT happen, because the (apparent and illusory)
decrease in the rate of pressing was not caused by a decrease in the rate
of reinforcement, but by time away from the lever that affected both the
apparent rate of pressing and the apparent rate of reinforcement. The
independent variable is time away from the lever; the two apparent rates
both depend on time away from the lever and are not causally related to
each other (based on _that_ measurement).

The problem I'm having is contained in this exerpt from your 981015:

Your recall of the data is incorrect. What the data show is that response
rate declines as the average interval length increases. That is, lower
rates of reinforcement are accompanied by lower rates of responding,
contrary to your earlier prediction, based on PCT, that the reverse would be
true.

The prediction from PCT is that a disturbance of a controlled variable and
the action that does the controlling will vary equally and oppositely. But
any application of that principle presupposes you have successfully
identified a controlled variable. PCT does not predict what variables will
prove to be controlled. PCT is not at fault for predicting that rate of
reinforcement is a controlled variable. My assumption was at fault: that if
the rate of reinforcement varied, it was because the rate of pressing
varied as well as because of the change in ratio (this was all on FR
schedules). You then proved with data that the rate of pressing was
effectively a constant, and thus was actually independent of both rate of
reinforcement and schedule.

I decided, and said a year and a half ago, that the particular model I came
up with couldn't be right because it assumed that the rate of pressing
changed with the (hypothetical) error. I acknowledged at the same time that
my fit of a control-system model to the Motheral data was spurious. Why are
you still harping on this? Do you want me to repeat once a week, or day,
that my first attempt at a specific model wasn't correct?

Or could it be -- this just occurred to me -- that while rate of food
delivery is not a controlled variable, you're assuming it might still be a
reinforcer? That, of course, is ruled out because the behavior rate is
constant and does not vary with rate of food delivery. The same data that
rule out rate of food delivery as a controlled variable rule it out as a
reinforcer. The behavior rate does not change with "reinforcement" rate.

Your VI example in which both behavior rate and reinforcement rate decline
means nothing because the actual cause of the decline is time away from the
lever; it is not the decline in reinforcement rate that causes the decline
in behavior rate.

Not so long ago Rick was holding this prediction up as a crucial test of PCT
vs reinforcement theory -- PCT predicted that response rates would go up
when the interval size was increased, reinforcement theory clearly predicted
the opposite. If rates _had_ gone up I'm absolutely certain that it would
have been hailed as a clear victory for PCT. My, what a difference a datum
makes.

When you find the correct aspect of food delivery that is the controlled
variable, I assume you will find that any independent disturbance that
makes it increase will cause behavior to decrease and vice versa, as
control theory predicts. The problem with the prediction that Rick made is
that he assumed that reinforcement rate had been established as the
controlled variable. If it had, his prediction would have been correct.
Since that proposal for a controlled variable has been ruled out (you say),
you will have to look further for a controlled variable. If you find one,
Rick's prediction will automatically be borne out, since it is part of the
Test.

Reinforcement theory also has a problem, in explaining why actual behavior
rate remains the same when the schedule is changed, thus changing the
reinforcement rate.

This
description is particularly deceptive

There I go again, trying to pull the wool over everyone's eyes. How
fiendishly clever of me.

I'm beginning to think it's your own eyes you're pulling the wool over.

in that the mentioned decline of
response rates with reinforcement rates is actually a decline in both
response rates and reinforcement rates with increases in the interval used
in the schedule.

_Of course_ reinforcement rates decline with increases in the interval used
in the schedule -- changing the interval sizes is how we experimentally vary
the reinforcement rate.

That is not what I am talking about. If time away from the lever increases
with the interval or ratio, that alone will result in a decline in behavior
rate and reinforcement rate, when both are measured as total number during
a session divided by duration of the session. You do not see any
significant change in pressing rate (corrected for collection time) until
the animal starts spending significant time away from the lever in addition
to collection time. This occurs at the higher intervals or ratios.

On ratios under which the rat works the lever continuously but for
collections, changing the schedule and thus the reinforcement rate has no
effect on behavior rate (corrected for collection time). So the food
delivery rate changes but the pressing rate does not change. This removes
food delivery rate as a potential controlled variable, and also as a
potential reinforcer. In fact, because pressing rate does not change, food
delivery itself, in any form, is ruled out as a reinforcer.

These decreases on long-interval schedules come about
because the animals spend increasing time away from the lever. That
naturally decreases both rates, response and reinforcement, AVERAGED OVER
THE WHOLE SESSION.

Actually, because of the nature of variable-interval schedules, the observed
decline in response rates had little or no effect on reinforcement rates
until the response rates had fallen to extremely low levels.

Perhaps so, but that is irrelevant. Time away from the lever increases with
increased intervals, doesn't it? That would automatically decrease both
apparent rates equally: pressing and reinforcement. If your mind-set tells
you that pressing rate depends on reinforcement rate, you will interpret
that simultaneous decline as causal, when it is not.

Furthermore,
the data in question are not whole-session averages, but the slopes of the
cumulative records, which indicate the rates of responding. On VI
schedules, this slope tends to remain rather fairly constant throughout a
session.

If you mean the slopes between the pauses, then you're saying that actual
response rate does not change. But if you mean the slopes averaged by eye
across the pauses, you're averaging periods of fast responding with periods
of no responding. Apparently, from the following, the latter is the case:

Me:

That average includes periods of continuous responding
and appropriately repeated reinforcement-events as well as periods of no
responding and therefore no reinforcement.

You:

True.

As I said.

But on high VI schedules, most programmed interreinforcement
intervals are long enough that (a) reinforcement-events would not have
occurred during most pauses and (b) most pauses will end relatively soon
after a programmed interval has elapsed and the next reinforcement
opportunity set up. Reinforcement rate consequently is little affected.

That is mathematical gibberish, Bruce. What is little affected is the
_whole-session_ reinforcement (and behavior) rate. The short-term behavior
rate is drastically affected. You are rationalizing.

And don't forget that the data consist of the times at which each and every
response occurred, not session averages. However, it is convenient to
report the result in terms of session averages, because those averages
reflect the typical rates observed at any time within a session.

More gibberish. It is convenient because you get the answer you want, not
because there is either logical or mathematical justification for this
number-juggling. The data initially consist of each and every response.
When you use session averages, you throw out most of the relevant information.

There is no implication
regarding any causal relationship between reinforcement rate and response
rate.

But we can state with certainty that increasing X, the programmed interval
size (which is independent of the rat's behavior), reliably results in a
lowered response rate, Y.

That is because it reliably decreases the fraction of the total time the
rat spends pressing the bar. You are varying both numerators (total
presses, total reinforcements) while the demonominator stays the same
(session duration). There is no causal relation between X and Y. If you
deliberately close your eyes to the obvious explanation of the decline in X
and Y, you can claim an overall effect, but in doing so you only reveal
that you want the conclusion to be true more than you want to arrive at it
by legitimate means.

That is, the value of X largely determines the
value of Y under the conditions of the study.

That is wrong.

X is certainly having a
strong influence on Y, if not a "causal" one as you define the term.

That is wrong. X is having a strong influence on time away from the bar,
and that has a strong influence on _both_ session-average rate of pressing
and rate of reinforcement, making them both decline.

At the
same time, Y (response rate) is having very little influence on X', the
observed rate of reinforcement, at all but the highest VI values, when
response rate finally falls low enough to strongly affect the obtained
reinforcement rate.

That is wrong, too. What you mean is that delta-Y has little influence on
delta-X', because the mean slope of the apparatus function has become
almost horizontal. However, Y has a very strong influence on X': it is only
because Y is nonzero that X' is nonzero, and X' is completely determined by
Y, given the apparatus function.

···

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Bruce, you need to take a long and hard look at the way you're interpreting
your data, and at the way you're reasoning. Your drive toward arriving at
particular conclusions is obvious to anyone who doesn't share your
objectives. I can't argue with you: you seem completely impervious to
mathematical or logical reasoning that doesn't support the conclusions you
want to be true.

I don't suppose that you will change your approach just because I object to
it. All I can say is that I object to it strongly enough that I wil not go
on tilting at this windmill much longer.

Best,

Bill P.