Math Mistakes

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.14.14.07]

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.14.0845)]

I don't know what Alex is implying, but since I have demonstrated in

ways you ought to be able to understand that your so-called
“explanation” is no explanation at all, I don’t think “rhetoric”
applies. I would call your “explanation” non-existent.

No you haven't. You have produced a model that makes a cursor track

a target moving in two dimensions. You have not produced a model
that traces a reference trajectory, let alone one that does so while
moving its “cursor” at some velocity that has some relation to the
local curvature of the trajectory; you have not produced a model
that generates a trajectory in any of the situations faced by Alex’s
odour-seeking maggots. A model that tracks a moving target
inherently cannot “account for” a law that relates cursor velocity
to trajectory curvature.

I guess that all mathematics is "rhetoric", then, and therefore

irrelevant to serious analysis of problems of perceptual control.
Over the years, you have frequently implied that this is so, and I
guess you believe it. Most scientists don’t, whatever their research
interest.

It really DOES matter that your math is wrong in the same way that

the math of the “divided by zero” error is wrong. I see the below
your signature you quoted all of my kindergarten level explanation
of why it matters, but you have never said anything that would
suggest you understood even that. Bruce offered YAWTLAI (yet another
way to look at it). Your response to him continues the error without
attempting to show why he is wrong in saying (as I also show in my
“Sunday” exposition on the “divided by zero” error) that while the
“V” in Gribble and Ostry’s equation 9 CAN BE the same as the X in
equation 8, the only reason it would be is the pure convenience of
being able to use the same measures of time derivatives in both
equations. You cannot use equation 9 in ANY further use of the “V”
variable.

In the divide by zero syllogism

x/0 = infinity

3/0 = infinity

Therefore x = 3

x might actually BE 3 in some situation, but you can't use that

faint possibility to substitute 3 for x in further equations. That
is just what you are doing (falling prey to the mathematical error)
when you say [From Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1125)]

  RM: These data -- the variables measured per

equations 8 and 9 – are then analyzed, using linear regression
analysis

Back to the immediate message.

Why do you say that? It is unlike anything I remember seeing in any

of the curvature threads. What HAS been said is that when we observe
action, the PCT presumption is that some variable is being
controlled. What has also been said is that we see some consistency
in the observed action, that consistency might offer a clue as to
what variable is being controlled by the observed action.

According to a different contributor to CSGnet, also called Rick

Marken, the very first thing one should do in answering how PCT
applies to a specified situation is to seek the controlled
variable(s). I guess you really ought to set up a thread in which
you would argue the point with him.

...law, there's not much point in your continuing the pretence that

in the last two months you have said anything relevant to it. You
could stop the nonsense and begin contributing to answering Alex’s
original problem if you wanted, but I guess that isn’t something for
which you are controlling.

They have been posted and reposted and re-reposted on CSGnet ad

nauseam. Why do you want them posted elsewhere as well?

I'm leaving the "Sunday" kindergarten explanation below, so you

don’t have to look back to find it. If you find even something at
that elementary level incomprehensible, maybe you could point out
the specific place that you don’t understand, and perhaps we could
clear it up. Or you could do the same with Bruce’s post, which
illustrates the same problem from a different angle. Or you could
tell us if you have found anything wrong with any of the myriad
other explanations, dating back to Alex’s post within an hour of
your first mention of the so-called “behavioural illusion”.

Martin
···

On Wed, Sep 14, 2016 at 1:52 AM, Alex
Gomez-Marin agomezmarin@gmail.com
wrote:

                AGM: In other words, join

me in the efforts of these newly created and much
needed ONG:

www.pleaseStopRCP.org

              (RCP

= Rhetoric Control Theory)

          RM: I presume you are implying that my PCT explanation

of the power law is all “rhetoric”.

          That strikes me as odd since I have produced a PCT

model, tested it against data and showed how it accounts
for the power law;

          reference trajectory all the "non-rhetorical" PCT side

has produced is, well, rhetoric

(mainly having to do with how my math is wrong

          and that the power law "suggests" the existence of some

unspecified controlled variable).

          Until I see your PCT model that accounts for the

existence of the power

          I think all that needs to be posted at the StopRCP

site is the arguments of the ostensibly non-rhetorical PCT
side of the discussion.

Best

Rick

                  On Wed, Sep 14, 2016 at

8:38 AM, Alex Gomez-Marin agomezmarin@gmail.com
wrote:

                    martin, the csgNet is

now a hybrid of a basic math accademy with an
entertainment program for writing and joking
with those who write back. stay tuned!

                        On Wednesday, 14 September 2016, Martin

Taylor <mmt-csg@mmtaylor.net >
wrote:

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.13.22.49]

                                [From Rick Marken

(2016.09.13.1610)]

                            If you actually read and thought about

what you quote, I cannot read your
question as anything other than a not
too subtle joke, so I have to assume
that you either did not read it or the
maths, which I tried to explain at the
most basic level O could manage without
seeming to insult you (which I was
afraid I was doing anyway), was a bit
too deep for you.

                             Isuggest you try again, concentrating

on figuring out why this DOES explain
why you have been making the same kind
of mistake as the “divide by zero”
error. Perhaps I should repeat the last
lines: " When
we put all this together, we come to
the way this is a variant of the
“divide by zero” error. That error
depends on the fact that you can put
any variable at all in for “x” in “x/0
= infinity”. The – shall we call it
– the “curvature error” depends on
the fact that you can use anything at
all for V (including the measured
values), provided only that V is
defined as ds/dz where z is some
variable for which ds/dz exists
everywhere. You therefore cannot use
the curvature equation in any way to
determine V."

                              I emphasize "IN ANY WAY". Since I may

be a little too subtle when I say
this, it simply says that your
equation V = D1/3*C1/3 means nothing
at all, because it is true when V is
any variable at all that satisfies a
very loose condition. If it is a
velocity it can be any velocity at
all, or it can be any value of any
variable (and here I will repeat
myself) that depends on any other
variable “z” whatever for which ds/dz
is everywhere calculable.

                            G+O showed the correct formulas, and I

said so. You did the correct FORMAL
algebra. Your math error was and
apparently continues to be the
equivalent of the “divide by zero”
error, which also depends on doing the
algebra correctly. The “divide by zero”
or its “curvature error” equivalent is a
math error if ever there was one. It
could be and should be easily
correctable, but apparently it isn’t. I
don’t know why.

                            Martin
                                        RM: Oh, I see. It's

contained in this:

                                            MT:

Now we have to see how
they came to equation
(9). That’s a bit more
complicated, so please
bear with me.

                                                                                          MT:

They presumably either
used someone else’s
derivation or made their
own, starting from one
of several equivalent
measures of curvature,
one of which is C = 1/R
where R is the radius of
the osculating circle at
the point of concern.
Another one is developed
using vector calculus,
which I have no
intention of introducing
into this discussion. It
is C = dx/dsd2y/ds2 -
dy/ds * d2x/ds2 ,
where s is distance
along the curve from
some arbitrary starting
point.
For
G+O this formula was not
very convenient, because
they would have had to
measure these first and
second derivatives of x
and y with respect to
distance along the curve
fairly accurately. But
they had a trick
available, in the “chain
rule” of
differentiation:
dx/dy
dy/dz = dx/dz. The
"dy"s cancel out just
like ordinary variables.
Using the chain rule on
the first derivative
gives you the rule for
the second derivative,
and so on. For the
second derivative the
rule is (d2x/dy2)(dy/dz)2 =
d2x/dz2.
Using
the chain rule, G+O
could multiply the
formula for C by (ds/dz}3/(ds/dz)3 =
1, for any variable z
that allowed the
differentiation, to get
C = ((dx/ds)
(ds/dz)(d2y/ds2)(ds/dz)2)(ds/dz)3 -
(dy/ds)
(ds/dz)(d2x/ds2)__(ds/dz)__3)/(ds/dz)3 .
This formula is true
(allowing for typos) for
variable “z” whatever
(as with the divide by
zero example), but it
wouldn’t have helped G+O
very much, had it not
been that for one
particular variable they
already had measures
they could use. Those
measures were the ds/dt
velocity and the derived
d2s/dt2 values
they had obtained from
their observations of
movement. Using those
measures, they could
set “z” = t (time),
making dx/dt =
dx/ds*ds/dt. They could
then take advantage of
their measured
velocities to substitute
for ds/dt, and write

                                                                                          C

= (dx/dtd2y/dt2)/V3 -
(dy/dt
d2y/dt2)/V3

                                                                                          Oh

goody! We don’t have to
measure anything new to
get our curvatures. We
can use the values of
dx/dt and dy/dt that we
got before! Very handy.
… But also very
confusing, because it
made the published
equations look as though
the V3/V3 multiplier
was special to the
velocities they
measured, whereas it was
simply a convenient
choice from a literally
infinite variety of
choices they could have
made. G+O made it even
more confusing in the
publication by using the
Newton dotty notation,
which made it look as
though there was
something necessary
about the time
differentiation in the
curvature equation.

                                                                                          When

we put all this
together, we come to the
way this is a variant of
the “divide by zero”
error. That error
depends on the fact that
you can put any variable
at all in for “x” in
“x/0 = infinity”. The –
shall we call it – the
“curvature error”
depends on the fact that
you can use anything at
all for V (including the
measured values),
provided only that V is
defined as ds/dz where z
is some variable for
which ds/dz exists
everywhere. You
therefore cannot use the
curvature equation in
any way to determine V.

                                                                                          Does

this "Sunday "
explanation help?

                                          RM: Not really. Are you

saying that G+O used the
wrong formulas for V and
R? Or that the formulas
they published are not
actually the ones they
used to compute V and R?
Or that there is no way to
compute R since we can’t
measure ds? Either way,
you can’t say I made a
math error since I did the
math correctly on the
formulas I was given.
(And, as I mentioned, the
results came out exactly
right).

                                                  MT:

but the critical
point of my
suggestion that
you read my
earlier message is
contained in this:

                                                RM: Contained in

what?

                                          RM: Rather than saying

that I was making a math
error, it would have
helped if you had just
said: “these are the
correct formulas for
computing V and R” and
showed me the formulas.

                                          That would have saved

a lot of trouble. So how
about it; what are the
correct formulas for
computing V and R?

Best

Rick


Richard
S. Marken

                                                      "The

childhood of
the human race
is far from
over. We have
a long way to
go before most
people will
understand
that what they
do for others
is just as
important to
their
well-being as
what they do
for
themselves."
– William T.
Powers


Richard
S. Marken

                                                      "The

childhood of
the human race
is far from
over. We have
a long way to
go before most
people will
understand
that what they
do for others
is just as
important to
their
well-being as
what they do
for
themselves."
– William T.
Powers

Richard S. Marken

                                    "The childhood of the human

race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before
most people will understand that
what they do for
others is just as important to
their well-being as what they do
for
themselves." – William T.
Powers

rhetoric = “language designed to have a persuasive or impressive effect, but which is often regarded as lacking in sincerity or meaningful content”

···

On Wed, Sep 14, 2016 at 8:49 PM, Martin Taylor mmt-csg@mmtaylor.net wrote:

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.14.14.07]

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.14.0845)]

I don't know what Alex is implying, but since I have demonstrated in

ways you ought to be able to understand that your so-called
“explanation” is no explanation at all, I don’t think “rhetoric”
applies. I would call your “explanation” non-existent.

No you haven't. You have produced a model that makes a cursor track

a target moving in two dimensions. You have not produced a model
that traces a reference trajectory, let alone one that does so while
moving its “cursor” at some velocity that has some relation to the
local curvature of the trajectory; you have not produced a model
that generates a trajectory in any of the situations faced by Alex’s
odour-seeking maggots. A model that tracks a moving target
inherently cannot “account for” a law that relates cursor velocity
to trajectory curvature.

I guess that all mathematics is "rhetoric", then, and therefore

irrelevant to serious analysis of problems of perceptual control.
Over the years, you have frequently implied that this is so, and I
guess you believe it. Most scientists don’t, whatever their research
interest.

  RM: These data -- the variables measured per

equations 8 and 9 – are then analyzed, using linear regression
analysis

It really DOES matter that your math is wrong in the same way that

the math of the “divided by zero” error is wrong. I see the below
your signature you quoted all of my kindergarten level explanation
of why it matters, but you have never said anything that would
suggest you understood even that. Bruce offered YAWTLAI (yet another
way to look at it). Your response to him continues the error without
attempting to show why he is wrong in saying (as I also show in my
“Sunday” exposition on the “divided by zero” error) that while the
“V” in Gribble and Ostry’s equation 9 CAN BE the same as the X in
equation 8, the only reason it would be is the pure convenience of
being able to use the same measures of time derivatives in both
equations. You cannot use equation 9 in ANY further use of the “V”
variable.

In the divide by zero syllogism



x/0 = infinity

3/0 = infinity

Therefore x = 3



x might actually BE 3 in some situation, but you can't use that

faint possibility to substitute 3 for x in further equations. That
is just what you are doing (falling prey to the mathematical error)
when you say [From Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1125)]

Back to the immediate message.
Why do you say that? It is unlike anything I remember seeing in any

of the curvature threads. What HAS been said is that when we observe
action, the PCT presumption is that some variable is being
controlled. What has also been said is that we see some consistency
in the observed action, that consistency might offer a clue as to
what variable is being controlled by the observed action.

According to a different contributor to CSGnet, also called Rick

Marken, the very first thing one should do in answering how PCT
applies to a specified situation is to seek the controlled
variable(s). I guess you really ought to set up a thread in which
you would argue the point with him.

...law, there's not much point in your continuing the pretence that

in the last two months you have said anything relevant to it. You
could stop the nonsense and begin contributing to answering Alex’s
original problem if you wanted, but I guess that isn’t something for
which you are controlling.

They have been posted and reposted and re-reposted on CSGnet ad

nauseam. Why do you want them posted elsewhere as well?

I'm leaving the "Sunday" kindergarten explanation below, so you

don’t have to look back to find it. If you find even something at
that elementary level incomprehensible, maybe you could point out
the specific place that you don’t understand, and perhaps we could
clear it up. Or you could do the same with Bruce’s post, which
illustrates the same problem from a different angle. Or you could
tell us if you have found anything wrong with any of the myriad
other explanations, dating back to Alex’s post within an hour of
your first mention of the so-called “behavioural illusion”.

Martin
        On Wed, Sep 14, 2016 at 1:52 AM, Alex

Gomez-Marin agomezmarin@gmail.com
wrote:

                AGM: In other words, join

me in the efforts of these newly created and much
needed ONG:

www.pleaseStopRCP.org

              (RCP

= Rhetoric Control Theory)

          RM: I presume you are implying that my PCT explanation

of the power law is all “rhetoric”.

          That strikes me as odd since I have produced a PCT

model, tested it against data and showed how it accounts
for the power law;

          reference trajectory all the "non-rhetorical" PCT side

has produced is, well, rhetoric

(mainly having to do with how my math is wrong

          and that the power law "suggests" the existence of some

unspecified controlled variable).

          Until I see your PCT model that accounts for the

existence of the power

          I think all that needs to be posted at the StopRCP

site is the arguments of the ostensibly non-rhetorical PCT
side of the discussion.

Best

Rick


Richard S. Marken

                                    "The childhood of the human

race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before
most people will understand that
what they do for
others is just as important to
their well-being as what they do
for
themselves." – William T.
Powers

                  On Wed, Sep 14, 2016 at

8:38 AM, Alex Gomez-Marin agomezmarin@gmail.com
wrote:

                    martin, the csgNet is

now a hybrid of a basic math accademy with an
entertainment program for writing and joking
with those who write back. stay tuned!

                        On Wednesday, 14 September 2016, Martin

Taylor <mmt-csg@mmtaylor.net >
wrote:

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.13.22.49]

                                [From Rick Marken

(2016.09.13.1610)]

                            If you actually read and thought about

what you quote, I cannot read your
question as anything other than a not
too subtle joke, so I have to assume
that you either did not read it or the
maths, which I tried to explain at the
most basic level O could manage without
seeming to insult you (which I was
afraid I was doing anyway), was a bit
too deep for you.

                             Isuggest you try again, concentrating

on figuring out why this DOES explain
why you have been making the same kind
of mistake as the “divide by zero”
error. Perhaps I should repeat the last
lines: " When
we put all this together, we come to
the way this is a variant of the
“divide by zero” error. That error
depends on the fact that you can put
any variable at all in for “x” in “x/0
= infinity”. The – shall we call it
– the “curvature error” depends on
the fact that you can use anything at
all for V (including the measured
values), provided only that V is
defined as ds/dz where z is some
variable for which ds/dz exists
everywhere. You therefore cannot use
the curvature equation in any way to
determine V."

                              I emphasize "IN ANY WAY". Since I may

be a little too subtle when I say
this, it simply says that your
equation V = D1/3*C1/3 means nothing
at all, because it is true when V is
any variable at all that satisfies a
very loose condition. If it is a
velocity it can be any velocity at
all, or it can be any value of any
variable (and here I will repeat
myself) that depends on any other
variable “z” whatever for which ds/dz
is everywhere calculable.

                            G+O showed the correct formulas, and I

said so. You did the correct FORMAL
algebra. Your math error was and
apparently continues to be the
equivalent of the “divide by zero”
error, which also depends on doing the
algebra correctly. The “divide by zero”
or its “curvature error” equivalent is a
math error if ever there was one. It
could be and should be easily
correctable, but apparently it isn’t. I
don’t know why.

                            Martin
                                        RM: Oh, I see. It's

contained in this:

                                            MT:

Now we have to see how
they came to equation
(9). That’s a bit more
complicated, so please
bear with me.

                                                                                          MT:

They presumably either
used someone else’s
derivation or made their
own, starting from one
of several equivalent
measures of curvature,
one of which is C = 1/R
where R is the radius of
the osculating circle at
the point of concern.
Another one is developed
using vector calculus,
which I have no
intention of introducing
into this discussion. It
is C = dx/dsd2y/ds2 -
dy/ds * d2x/ds2 ,
where s is distance
along the curve from
some arbitrary starting
point.
For
G+O this formula was not
very convenient, because
they would have had to
measure these first and
second derivatives of x
and y with respect to
distance along the curve
fairly accurately. But
they had a trick
available, in the “chain
rule” of
differentiation:
dx/dy
dy/dz = dx/dz. The
"dy"s cancel out just
like ordinary variables.
Using the chain rule on
the first derivative
gives you the rule for
the second derivative,
and so on. For the
second derivative the
rule is (d2x/dy2)(dy/dz)2 =
d2x/dz2.
Using
the chain rule, G+O
could multiply the
formula for C by (ds/dz}3/(ds/dz)3 =
1, for any variable z
that allowed the
differentiation, to get
C = ((dx/ds)
(ds/dz)(d2y/ds2)(ds/dz)2)(ds/dz)3 -
(dy/ds)
(ds/dz)(d2x/ds2)__(ds/dz)__3)/(ds/dz)3 .
This formula is true
(allowing for typos) for
variable “z” whatever
(as with the divide by
zero example), but it
wouldn’t have helped G+O
very much, had it not
been that for one
particular variable they
already had measures
they could use. Those
measures were the ds/dt
velocity and the derived
d2s/dt2 values
they had obtained from
their observations of
movement. Using those
measures, they could
set “z” = t (time),
making dx/dt =
dx/ds*ds/dt. They could
then take advantage of
their measured
velocities to substitute
for ds/dt, and write

                                                                                          C

= (dx/dtd2y/dt2)/V3 -
(dy/dt
d2y/dt2)/V3

                                                                                          Oh

goody! We don’t have to
measure anything new to
get our curvatures. We
can use the values of
dx/dt and dy/dt that we
got before! Very handy.
… But also very
confusing, because it
made the published
equations look as though
the V3/V3 multiplier
was special to the
velocities they
measured, whereas it was
simply a convenient
choice from a literally
infinite variety of
choices they could have
made. G+O made it even
more confusing in the
publication by using the
Newton dotty notation,
which made it look as
though there was
something necessary
about the time
differentiation in the
curvature equation.

                                                                                          When

we put all this
together, we come to the
way this is a variant of
the “divide by zero”
error. That error
depends on the fact that
you can put any variable
at all in for “x” in
“x/0 = infinity”. The –
shall we call it – the
“curvature error”
depends on the fact that
you can use anything at
all for V (including the
measured values),
provided only that V is
defined as ds/dz where z
is some variable for
which ds/dz exists
everywhere. You
therefore cannot use the
curvature equation in
any way to determine V.

                                                                                          Does

this "Sunday "
explanation help?

                                          RM: Not really. Are you

saying that G+O used the
wrong formulas for V and
R? Or that the formulas
they published are not
actually the ones they
used to compute V and R?
Or that there is no way to
compute R since we can’t
measure ds? Either way,
you can’t say I made a
math error since I did the
math correctly on the
formulas I was given.
(And, as I mentioned, the
results came out exactly
right).

                                                  MT:

but the critical
point of my
suggestion that
you read my
earlier message is
contained in this:

                                                RM: Contained in

what?

                                          RM: Rather than saying

that I was making a math
error, it would have
helped if you had just
said: “these are the
correct formulas for
computing V and R” and
showed me the formulas.

                                          That would have saved

a lot of trouble. So how
about it; what are the
correct formulas for
computing V and R?

Best

Rick


Richard
S. Marken

                                                      "The

childhood of
the human race
is far from
over. We have
a long way to
go before most
people will
understand
that what they
do for others
is just as
important to
their
well-being as
what they do
for
themselves."
– William T.
Powers


Richard
S. Marken

                                                      "The

childhood of
the human race
is far from
over. We have
a long way to
go before most
people will
understand
that what they
do for others
is just as
important to
their
well-being as
what they do
for
themselves."
– William T.
Powers

[From Bruce Abbott (2016.09.14.1605 EDT)]

Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1125)

Bruce Abbott (2016.09.14.1105 EDT)

Rick Marken (2016.09.13.1610) –

BA: I would disagree with Martin a little by saying that the error you are making is not a math error (solving for V in the formula for R does follow the rules of algebra). It is a logical or conceptual error.

RM: Thanks. Now I’ll explain why the “conceptual error” you point out is irrelevant.

<Rick’s explanation deleted as nonresponsive to my request.>

BA:  Before I am willing to discuss your explanation, I still need proof that you read and understood mine.  Even if you think that it is “irrelevant.� Once again, here is the final paragraph of my post:

BA: Like Martin, I have reluctantly come to believe that you are not really interested in understanding all this. Apparently, the idea that you have discovered a new form of the “behavioral illusion� is just too seductive an idea to give up, and being a good control system, you have been using all the methods at your disposal to resist having to admit that your analysis is just an embarrassing mistake. Prove me wrong: show me that you understand the above, even if you do not agree with it. Restate it in your own words.

BA:  I’m still waiting. Stop dodging – please!

<

Bruce

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1710)]

···

Vyv Huddy (1938.14.09.2016)

VH: Hi Rick, would your model predict the mixture of power laws shown in Figure 7 of the paper previously circulated? See

http://www.pnas.org/content/112/29/E3950.full.pdf

Not their model i mean the behavioural data.

RM: Wow, I never saw that one. It’s super. Yes, my model should predict exactly the mixture of laws(coefficients) observed for the different movement patterns; indeed, it should be able to predict exactly what the power coefficient will be for each of the patterns. By the way, notice that they are finding negative values of the power coefficient. That’s because they are using C (= 1/R) rather than R as the predictor variable.

VH: Sounds like you’re saying there would be a limited number of relationships? Maybe I’ve misunderstood.

RM: I’m saying that the observed power coefficient, when regressing log (R) on log (V), will deviate from 1/3 in inverse proportion to the variance in log (R) and in direct proportion to the covariance between log(R) and the missing predictor variable, log (D). This is because there is only one true relationship between V and R, which is simply V = D^1/3 *R^1/3.

Best

Rick

Thanks.

On 14 Sep 2016, at 19:27, Richard Marken rsmarken@gmail.com wrote:

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1125)]


Richard S. Marken

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for
others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for
themselves.” – William T. Powers

Bruce Abbott (2016.09.14.1105 EDT)

Rick Marken (2016.09.13.1610) –

BA: I would disagree with Martin a little by saying that the error you are making is not a math error (solving for V in the formula for R does follow the rules of algebra). It
is a logical or conceptual error.

RM: Thanks. Now I’ll explain why the “conceptual error” you point out is irrelevant.

BA: Now here is the important part, the part you have been missing. Velocity in terms of distance/time is only a convenient way to get a distance along the arc.

RM: The reason this is irrelevant is because my analysis doesn’t depend on what V or R actually measure. Here’s why it doesn’t matter: In power law research, movement trajectories are recorded as a series of X,Y coordinate values. The time variations
in the values of X and X are converted into measures that are called tangential velocity (V) and radius of curvature (R) by the following formulas:

<image.png>

RM: So a movement trajectory is converted into a series of V and R values that vary over time
using these formulas! This is the data used in power law studies; values of V and R computed according to equations 8 and 9. Calling these variables “velocity” and “radius of curvature” really just confuses things. It’s probably better to call them Victor and Roger. ** What matters is not what they are called or what
they are presumed to measure but how they are computed!**

RM: These data – the variables measured per equations 8 and 9 – are then analyzed, using linear regression analysis, to see if there is a power relationship between the variables, Victor and Roger. This is done by regressing the log of the R values on
the log of the V values. So power law research uses linear regression analysis to determine whether there is a power relationship between two variables, V and R, measured using equations 8 and 9. The regression analysis uses the following regression equation:

log (V) = a + b*log(R) (1)

RM: The result of this analysis is an estimated value for b, the power coefficient, and an R^2 value that measures the goodness of fit of this power law to the data. The result is often that b is approximately .33 and R^2 > .9.

RM: What I found is that there is a linear dependence between what equation 8 measures (the variable called V) and what equation 9 measures (the variable called R). The linear dependence can be expressed as:

log (V) = 1/3 * log(D) + 1/3*log (R) (2)

RM: Again, it doesn’t matter what V and R actually measure or how the physical variables they are presumed to represent are related (or not related) in physical reality.
**Equation 2 shows how variables measured according to equations 8 and 9 will be related!This is why your analysis of what V and R actually represent or how they are actually related is irrelevant to my analysis. ** If researchers use equations 8 and 9 to compute the variables V and R then equation 2 describes the linear relationship that exists
between these variables.
And power law researchers do use equations 8 and 9 to compute the variables V and R.

RM: What this means is that, when power law researchers look for a power law relationship between the variables V and R using equation 1, where only variable R is included in the regression, they will find a 1/3 power coefficient to the extent that the
“missing” predictor variable, log (D), doesn’t covary along with the predictor actually included in the regression, log (R). It also shows that the results of a power law analysis using variables computed according to equations 8 and 9 will depend completely
on the characteristics of the movement trajectory being analyzed. Trajectories where the covariation between log(D) and log(R) is small will result in an estimate of the power coefficient, b, close to 1/3 and a high R^2. Trajectories where the covariation
between log(D) and log(R) is large with result in an estimate of the power coefficient, b, that is not close to 1/3 and a low R^2.

RM: The same applies to an analyses using the variables C and A, which are derived from the variables computed using equations 8 and 9, since C = 1/R and A = V/R, so that the true linear relationship between C and A is:

log (A) = 1/3 * log(D) + 2/3*log (C)

RM: So the observed power relationship between the variables called R and V (or C and A) is an artifact of the way these variables are computed (using equations 8 and 9). Because of the way the variables are computed, there is a linear relationship between
them. So when linear regression is used to analyze the relationship between these variable (as it is in power law research) the result of this analysis will depend on which variables are included in the analysis. The results obtained in power law research
are what they are due to the fact that they consistently leave one predictor variable out of the regression, log(D). If they included that variable in their analyses they would always find that R is related to V by a power of 1/3 and C to A by a power of 2/3.
That’s just the way those variables are related.

Best

Rick


Richard S. Marken

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for themselves.” – William T. Powers

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1810)]

···

Bruce Abbott (2016.09.14.1605 EDT)–

Â

Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1125)

Â

RM: Thanks. Now I’ll explain why the “conceptual error” you point out is irrelevant.

Â

<Rick’s explanation deleted as nonresponsive to my request.>Â

Â

BA:Â Â Before I am willing to discuss your explanation, I still need proof that you read and understood mine. Â

RM: What proof canst thou have tonight?

Â

BA: Even if you think that it is “irrelevant.â€?Â

RM: OK, I’l give it a try. I have now read it (very clear, as usual) and this seems to be your bottom line point:Â

BA: The fact that, at a given point, V is a certain value when R was computed, does not imply that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to the next. The idea that they must be is the fallacy you commit in your analysis.

RM: So your complaint is that my analysis assumes that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to another. But that’s precisely what my analysis doesn’t assume. My analysis is completely blind to the moment to moment relation between V and R values.Â

RM: The equation relating V to R – V = D^1/3*R^1/3 – doesn’t say anything about when the paired values of V and R occur. It just describes the relationship between the pairs of values of V and R (as measured by equations 8 and 9 in G+O) that occur at the same time. (The same is true of the regression analysis that is used to determine the power law).Â

RM: To make this clear, suppose the following is the sequence of V and R values that are measured at equally spaced time samples of a movement:Â

t     V     R


0 Â Â Â .01 Â Â Â 3

1 Â Â Â Â 03 Â Â Â 10

2 Â Â Â .04 Â Â Â 30

3 Â Â Â .02 Â Â Â Â 5Â

4 Â Â Â .01 Â Â Â Â 1

.

.

.

RM: My analysis (as well as the regression analysis used by power law researchers) is blind to the order in which the V,R pairs actually occur; it takes no account of the moment to moment relationship between the V,R pairs (or between V and earlier or later values of V or between R and earlier or later values of R). Time is not involved in the analysis.Â

RM: When the V,R pairs are used in a regression analysis, the results of the analysis will be the same whether the pairs are listed in their true temporal order, like the one above, or in a temporally scrambled order, like this:

t     V     R


3 Â Â Â .02 Â Â Â Â 5Â

0 Â Â Â .01 Â Â Â 3

1 Â Â Â Â 03 Â Â Â 10

4 Â Â Â .01 Â Â Â Â 1

2 Â Â Â .04 Â Â Â 30

.

.

.

RM: I hope I have “proved” to your satisfaction that I have read and understood the license agreement --er. your criticism of my analysis. Now how about you “proving to me” that you have read and understood my analysis. Actually, I haven’t seen any sign that you have done that. And look how nice I’ve about it;-)

BestÂ

Rick

Â

Once again, here is the final paragraph of my post:

Â

BA: Like Martin, I have reluctantly come to believe that you are not really interested in understanding all this. Apparently, the idea that you have discovered a new form of the “behavioral illusion� is just too seductive an idea to give up, and being a good control system, you have been using all the methods at your disposal to resist having to admit that your analysis is just an embarrassing mistake. Prove me wrong: show me that you understand the above, even if you do not agree with it. Restate it in your own words.

Â

BA:  I’m still waiting. Stop dodging – please!

Â

Bruce

Â

Â


Richard S. MarkenÂ

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for
others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for
themselves.” – William T. Powers

yes, your model should predict it all but it will not. what you mean by your model, again, is to inject ad hoc reference trajectories and do a leaky integration. so you will have to choose every time the reference, this is, you will need to plug in the result every time so that you can say you derived it. honestly, i still can’t understand why, with the simplest spreadsheet and recently grasping the difference between R and C, you say aloud “yes, sure, my model can predict this, that, and whatever paper you send me, even before I read it”. enough RCT, please!

···

Bruce Abbott (2016.09.14.1605 EDT)–

Â

Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1125)

Â

RM: Thanks. Now I’ll explain why the “conceptual error” you point out is irrelevant.

Â

<Rick’s explanation deleted as nonresponsive to my request.>Â

Â

BA:Â Â Before I am willing to discuss your explanation, I still need proof that you read and understood mine. Â

RM: What proof canst thou have tonight?

Â

BA: Even if you think that it is “irrelevant.â€?Â

RM: OK, I’l give it a try. I have now read it (very clear, as usual) and this seems to be your bottom line point:Â

BA: The fact that, at a given point, V is a certain value when R was computed, does not imply that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to the next. The idea that they must be is the fallacy you commit in your analysis.

RM: So your complaint is that my analysis assumes that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to another. But that’s precisely what my analysis doesn’t assume. My analysis is completely blind to the moment to moment relation between V and R values.Â

RM: The equation relating V to R – V = D^1/3*R^1/3 – doesn’t say anything about when the paired values of V and R occur. It just describes the relationship between the pairs of values of V and R (as measured by equations 8 and 9 in G+O) that occur at the same time. (The same is true of the regression analysis that is used to determine the power law).Â

RM: To make this clear, suppose the following is the sequence of V and R values that are measured at equally spaced time samples of a movement:Â

t     V     R


0 Â Â Â .01 Â Â Â 3

1 Â Â Â Â 03 Â Â Â 10

2 Â Â Â .04 Â Â Â 30

3 Â Â Â .02 Â Â Â Â 5Â

4 Â Â Â .01 Â Â Â Â 1

.

.

.

RM: My analysis (as well as the regression analysis used by power law researchers) is blind to the order in which the V,R pairs actually occur; it takes no account of the moment to moment relationship between the V,R pairs (or between V and earlier or later values of V or between R and earlier or later values of R). Time is not involved in the analysis.Â

RM: When the V,R pairs are used in a regression analysis, the results of the analysis will be the same whether the pairs are listed in their true temporal order, like the one above, or in a temporally scrambled order, like this:

t     V     R


3 Â Â Â .02 Â Â Â Â 5Â

0 Â Â Â .01 Â Â Â 3

1 Â Â Â Â 03 Â Â Â 10

4 Â Â Â .01 Â Â Â Â 1

2 Â Â Â .04 Â Â Â 30

.

.

.

RM: I hope I have “proved” to your satisfaction that I have read and understood the license agreement --er. your criticism of my analysis. Now how about you “proving to me” that you have read and understood my analysis. Actually, I haven’t seen any sign that you have done that. And look how nice I’ve about it;-)

BestÂ

Rick

Â

Once again, here is the final paragraph of my post:

Â

BA: Like Martin, I have reluctantly come to believe that you are not really interested in understanding all this. Apparently, the idea that you have discovered a new form of the “behavioral illusion� is just too seductive an idea to give up, and being a good control system, you have been using all the methods at your disposal to resist having to admit that your analysis is just an embarrassing mistake. Prove me wrong: show me that you understand the above, even if you do not agree with it. Restate it in your own words.

Â

BA:  I’m still waiting. Stop dodging – please!

Â

Bruce

Â

Â


Richard S. MarkenÂ

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for
others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for
themselves.” – William T. Powers

[From Bruce Abbott (2016.09.15.0800 EDT)]

Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1810) –

Bruce Abbott (2016.09.14.1605 EDT)–

Rick Marken (2016.09.14.1125)

BA: Before I am willing to discuss your explanation, I still need proof that you read and understood mine. BA: Even if you think that it is “irrelevant.�

RM: OK, I’l give it a try. I have now read it (very clear, as usual) and this seems to be your bottom line point:

BA: The fact that, at a given point, V is a certain value when R was computed, does not imply that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to the next. The idea that they must be is the fallacy you commit in your analysis.

RM: So your complaint is that my analysis assumes that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to another. But that’s precisely what my analysis doesn’t assume. My analysis is completely blind to the moment to moment relation between V and R values.

BA: No, that’s not my complaint! But before we get into this, how about complying with my request? I asked you to restate my explanation why your analysis is based on a conceptual error. We do seem to be making progress – you say tthat you read it. That’s a good start. All that’s left is for you to restate my explanation.

BA: That explanation began by showing the geometrical basis of the formula for determining the radius of curvature at a given point P along a curved path. How does it do that? Please explain in terms of what changes take place in the variables as we move along the curve a tiny distance from point P.  How do these changes give us the curvature of the line at point P? Why is it that we could get the same result by relating the change in distance ds to the change in the angle of the tangent line da , without involving time in the computations at all? Why do power-law researchers use time-based changes in the computation of R when they could have used ds/da (rate of change in distance along the arc per unit change in tangent angle) instead and left time out entirely?

BA:  Having done that (correctly, I hope), you should explain why, according to this analysis, it is a conceptual error to solve for V in the formula for R and think you’ve said anything rational about how V and R might be related in real data – ssuccessive pairs of V and R observed during a movement.

BA:Â Come on, Rick, I know you can do it!

Bruce

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.15.1030)]

image328.png

···

Bruce Abbott (2016.09.15.0800 EDT)–

RM: So your complaint is that my analysis assumes that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to another. But that’s precisely what my analysis doesn’t assume. My analysis is completely blind to the moment to moment relation between V and R values.Â

Â

BA: No, that’s not my complaint! But before we get into this, how about complying with my request? I asked you to restate my explanation why your analysis is based on a conceptual error. We do seem to be making progress – you say that you read it… That’s a good start. All that’s left is for you to restate my explanation.

RM: Actually, I think it’s about time for you to start restating my explanation of the power law. All you have done throughout this discussion is repeat that I have made a “conceptual error” and that if I would just understand that error then I would finally see the light and know that my analysis is invalid. This doesn’t cut it with me anymore.Â

RM: If, indeed, I am making a conceptual error that invalidates my analysis then show me how it does that in terms of my analysis. In order to do this you have to know what my analysis is. And I have seen no sign that you do. So I suggest that you prove to me that you understand my analysis before you start telling me what’s wrong with it. Â

RM: A good way to prove that you understand my analysis is to explain exactly how my “conceptual error” invalidates it. That is, describe what you think if my analysis and then show me exactly how my “conceptual error” invalidates it. Here’s a quick summary of my analysis, in case you’ve forgotten (most important steps are bolded):

  1. Power law researchers measure the instantaneous velocity (V) and curvature (R) that occur throughout a movement using the following formulas:

  2. The power law is determined using linear regression analysis with the logarithms of these measures of curvature and velocity as the predictor and criterion variables, respectively. The regression equation is:Â

log (V) = a + b* log (R) Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â (1)

  1. There is a linear relationship between the logs of V and R when V and R are computed using equations 8 and 9, as follows:

log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) + 1/3*log(R) Â Â (2)

4. So power law researchers are using linear regression to determine whether there is a linear relationship between variables that are mathematically linearly related, per equation 2

5. However, they are using equation 1 to determine the relationship that is actually defined by equation 2. So there is a “missing variable” (V^3/R, also known as D) in their prediction equation

**6. Because of this missing variable, a linear regression analysis using equation 1 will find a value of b (the coefficient of log(R), known as the power coefficient) that is “biased” relative to its true value of 1/3.**Â

  1. The degree to which b is a biased estimate of the true coefficient of log(R) is proportional to the ratio of the covariance of R and D to the variance of R: cov(R,D)/var(R).Â

  2. This means that, for any movement trajectory, it is possible to predict exactly what power coefficient will be found relating R to V from the folllowing equation:Â

b = b* + a  * cov(R,D)/var(R).Â

where b = observed power coefficient, b* = true power coefficient, a = true coefficient of D

That is, you can predict exactly what the power coefficient will be without analyzing (using log-log regression) the relationship between R and V. I have confirmed this fact using many movement trajectories, some made by humans, some by helicopters.Â

  1. The conclusion of my analysis is that the power law coefficient that is found for different movements depends completely on characteristics of the movement trajectory itself and has nothing to do with how it was produced.Â

RM: Now please restate my analysis and tell me how my “conceptual error” invalidates this analysis. Â Â

Best regards

Rick


Richard S. MarkenÂ

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for
others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for
themselves.” – William T. Powers

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.15.13.05]

Having read Bruce's request for Rick to restate Bruce's

explanationof the mathematical error at the heart of Rick’s problem,
to show understanding, I would like to modify my request to Rick. I
originally asked Rick to point out where in the material quoted
below he had difficulty understanding, but since he hasn’t chosen to
do that, I offer an easier alternative instead.

Now I ask Rick just to provide a paraphrase of the argument. It

should only take four or five lines to paraphrase enough to show
whether he does understand. The first of those lines might be
something like this: “A basic equation for curvature is stated”.
That would be enough to cover the first paragraph of the
explanation.

With Rick's paraphrases of these two explanations of the problem by

Bruce and me we would have a basis for understanding why he thinks
that the error either isn’t an error or is irrelevant to his claim
to have demonstrated (proved?) something about the curvature
power-law observations.

Martin

--------material to be paraphrased, from [Martin Taylor

2016.09.13.14.55] (“they” are Gribble and Ostry)-----

  Now we have to see how they came to equation (9). That's a bit

more complicated, so please bear with me.

  They presumably either used someone else's derivation or made

their own, starting from one of several equivalent measures of
curvature, one of which is C = 1/R where R is the radius of the
osculating circle at the point of concern. Another one is
developed using vector calculus, which I have no intention of
introducing into this discussion. It is C = dx/ds*d2y/ds2
- dy/ds * d2x/ds2 , where s is distance along
the curve from some arbitrary starting point.

  For G+O this formula was not very convenient, because they would

have had to measure these first and second derivatives of x and y
with respect to distance along the curve fairly accurately. But
they had a trick available, in the “chain rule” of
differentiation: dx/dydy/dz = dx/dz. The "dy"s cancel out just
like ordinary variables. Using the chain rule on the first
derivative gives you the rule for the second derivative, and so
on. For the second derivative the rule is (d2x/dy2)
(dy/dz)2
= d2x/dz2.

  Using the chain rule, G+O could multiply the formula for C by

(ds/dz}3/(ds/dz)3 = 1, for any variable z
that allowed the differentiation, to get C = ((dx/ds)(ds/dz)(d2y/ds2)(ds/dz)2)(ds/dz)3
- (dy/ds)(ds/dz)(d2x/ds2)*(ds/dz)3)/(ds/dz)3 .
This formula is true (allowing for typos) for variable “z”
whatever (as with the divide by zero example), but it wouldn’t
have helped G+O very much, had it not been that for one particular
variable they already had measures they could use. Those measures
were the ds/dt velocity and the derived d2s/dt2
values they had obtained from their observations of movement.
Using those measures, they could set “z” = t (time), making dx/dt
= dx/ds*ds/dt. They could then take advantage of their measured
velocities to substitute for ds/dt, and write

  C = (dx/dt*d<sup>2</sup>y/dt<sup>2</sup>)/V<sup>3</sup> - (dy/dt*d<sup>2</sup>y/dt<sup>2</sup>)/V<sup>3</sup>



  Oh goody! We don't have to measure anything new to get our

curvatures. We can use the values of dx/dt and dy/dt that we got
before! Very handy. … But also very confusing, because it made
the published equations look as though the V3/V3
multiplier was special to the velocities they measured, whereas it
was simply a convenient choice from a literally infinite variety
of choices they could have made. G+O made it even more confusing
in the publication by using the Newton dotty notation, which made
it look as though there was something necessary about the time
differentiation in the curvature equation.

  When we put all this together, we come to the way this is a

variant of the “divide by zero” error. That error depends on the
fact that you can put any variable at all in for “x” in “x/0 =
infinity”. The – shall we call it – the “curvature error”
depends on the fact that you can use anything at all for V
(including the measured values), provided only that V is defined
as ds/dz where z is some variable for which ds/dz exists
everywhere. You therefore cannot use the curvature equation in any
way to determine V.
---------end material for paraphrase-------

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.15.1100)]

···

Martin Taylor (2016.09.15.13.05) –

MT: Having read Bruce's request for Rick to restate Bruce's

explanation of the mathematical error at the heart of Rick’s problem,
to show understanding, I would like to modify my request to Rick. I
originally asked Rick to point out where in the material quoted
below he had difficulty understanding, but since he hasn’t chosen to
do that, I offer an easier alternative instead.

MT: Now I ask Rick just to provide a paraphrase of the argument.

RM: No thanks. The proper way to show that there is a problem with my analysis is to explain in in terms of my analysis. So show me how what Bruce calls my “conceptual error” and what you call my “mathematical error” affects the validity or correctness of my analysis. IN order to do this you have to know what my analysis is. As I told Bruce, you and Bruce have shown no evidence of understanding my analysis. So how about showing showing that you do understand my analysis by restating it and then explaiking exactly how my “conceptual” or “mathematical” error invalidates it.

Thanks.

Rick

It

should only take four or five lines to paraphrase enough to show
whether he does understand. The first of those lines might be
something like this: “A basic equation for curvature is stated”.
That would be enough to cover the first paragraph of the
explanation.

With Rick's paraphrases of these two explanations of the problem by

Bruce and me we would have a basis for understanding why he thinks
that the error either isn’t an error or is irrelevant to his claim
to have demonstrated (proved?) something about the curvature
power-law observations.

RM: No we wouldn’t. It’s your turn to shop that you understand my analysis.

Martin



--------material to be paraphrased, from [Martin Taylor

2016.09.13.14.55] (“they” are Gribble and Ostry)-----

  Now we have to see how they came to equation (9). That's a bit

more complicated, so please bear with me.

  They presumably either used someone else's derivation or made

their own, starting from one of several equivalent measures of
curvature, one of which is C = 1/R where R is the radius of the
osculating circle at the point of concern. Another one is
developed using vector calculus, which I have no intention of
introducing into this discussion. It is C = dx/ds*d2y/ds2
- dy/ds * d2x/ds2 , where s is distance along
the curve from some arbitrary starting point.

  For G+O this formula was not very convenient, because they would

have had to measure these first and second derivatives of x and y
with respect to distance along the curve fairly accurately. But
they had a trick available, in the “chain rule” of
differentiation: dx/dydy/dz = dx/dz. The "dy"s cancel out just
like ordinary variables. Using the chain rule on the first
derivative gives you the rule for the second derivative, and so
on. For the second derivative the rule is (d2x/dy2)
(dy/dz)2
= d2x/dz2.

  Using the chain rule, G+O could multiply the formula for C by

(ds/dz}3/(ds/dz)3 = 1, for any variable z
that allowed the differentiation, to get C = ((dx/ds)(ds/dz)(d2y/ds2)(ds/dz)2)(ds/dz)3
- (dy/ds)(ds/dz)(d2x/ds2)*(ds/dz)3)/(ds/dz)3 .
This formula is true (allowing for typos) for variable “z”
whatever (as with the divide by zero example), but it wouldn’t
have helped G+O very much, had it not been that for one particular
variable they already had measures they could use. Those measures
were the ds/dt velocity and the derived d2s/dt2
values they had obtained from their observations of movement.
Using those measures, they could set “z” = t (time), making dx/dt
= dx/ds*ds/dt. They could then take advantage of their measured
velocities to substitute for ds/dt, and write

  C = (dx/dt*d<sup>2</sup>y/dt<sup>2</sup>)/V<sup>3</sup> - (dy/dt*d<sup>2</sup>y/dt<sup>2</sup>)/V<sup>3</sup>



  Oh goody! We don't have to measure anything new to get our

curvatures. We can use the values of dx/dt and dy/dt that we got
before! Very handy. … But also very confusing, because it made
the published equations look as though the V3/V3
multiplier was special to the velocities they measured, whereas it
was simply a convenient choice from a literally infinite variety
of choices they could have made. G+O made it even more confusing
in the publication by using the Newton dotty notation, which made
it look as though there was something necessary about the time
differentiation in the curvature equation.

  When we put all this together, we come to the way this is a

variant of the “divide by zero” error. That error depends on the
fact that you can put any variable at all in for “x” in “x/0 =
infinity”. The – shall we call it – the “curvature error”
depends on the fact that you can use anything at all for V
(including the measured values), provided only that V is defined
as ds/dz where z is some variable for which ds/dz exists
everywhere. You therefore cannot use the curvature equation in any
way to determine V.
---------end material for paraphrase-------


Richard S. Marken

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for
others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for
themselves.” – William T. Powers

[From Bruce Abbott (2016.09.15.1415 EDT)]

Rick Marken (2016.09.15.1030)]

Bruce Abbott (2016.09.15.0800 EDT)–

RM: So your complaint is that my analysis assumes that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to another. But that’s precisely what my analysis doesn’t assume. My analysis is completely blind to the moment to moment relation between V and R values.

BA: No, that’s not my complaint! But before we get into this, how about complying with my request? I asked you to restate my explanation why your analysis is based on a conceptual error. We do seem to be making progress – you say that you reead it. That’s a good start. All that’s left is for you to restate my explanation.

RM: Actually, I think it’s about time for you to start restating my explanation of the power law. All you have done throughout this discussion is repeat that I have made a “conceptual error” and that if I would just understand that error then I would finally see the light and know that my analysis is invalid. This doesn’t cut it with me anymore.

BA: All that I have done? All that I have done?  Not so! I’ve given you a complete explanation of your conceptual error; at this point all I am asking of you it to prove to me that you have understood it.

BA: Let me state what I am doing from a PCT perspective. My reference is for you to understand my argument showing why your analysis is incorrect. My current perception is that you do not understand it. This is an error that has generated output from me in the form of an explanation why your analysis is incorrect, based on a geometry-based analysis of how the curvature measure actually works, i.e., the geometrical basis of the measure. To determine whether I have been successful in getting you to understand the argument, I have asked you to restate it in your own words. In other words, I have asked you to CLOSE THE LOOP! It is more than passing strange that a control theorist would refuse to honor this simple request. I hope that you will reconsider.

BA: I will be more than happy to address your request after you have satisfied mine. It’s not that hard to do.

BA: This is now the third time you have dodged my request. Please don’t make your next reply the fourth.

Bruce

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.15.13.41]

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.15.1030)]

The fact that you see no sign, despite the flaw having been  pointed

out (to quote myself) “six ways from Sunday” and two more ways since
then, is the problem. I don’t know how Bruce will respond, but I’ll
just state it without further explanation. (I see you asked me to do
the same, so I no longer feel I am pre-empting Bruce).

You've had the explanation may times, starting less than an hour

after you first proposed your analysis. But here goes again.

So far, so good.

So there is, but that V isn't necessarily the same V. It's any

variable AT ALL. And that possibility includes that it could be the
same. If x/0 = infinity and 3/0 = infinity, x COULD BE 3, but you
can’t use x = 3 in any further computations. Likewise, since V could
be just about anything at all (the limits of that statement have
been stated previously) you can’t use that V as being the observed
values of V as a function of x and y in any further analysis.

Nope. They are using linear regression to find whether there is a

linear relationship between variables that are NOT mathematically
linearly related.

Nope.

Nope.

Nope.

Nope.

No you haven't, not in what you have presented on CSGnet.

OK,

-----Restatement-------

1.1 Researchers observe the velocity of something that moves in

space. They quantify this movement in Cartesian coordinates.

1.2. Researchers determine the trajectory of the moving object and

quantify it as a curve in the same Cartesian space.

1.3. Researchers use the measurements in Cartesian space to

determine the curvature of the trajectory at each point along it.
For convenience they use the measures they already took in 1 and 2.

2. Researchers note that their observed velocities have a

relationship with the curvature they measure.

3. Rick notices that the curvature equation looks as though it can

be transposed so as to show a variable “V” as if it could be
determined from the right-hand side of the equation. He does this by
hiding the identical “V” in a newly defined variable on the right
side, though he seems to be unaware that this is what he is doing.
Then he asserts that this “V” MUST BE the velocity measured in 1.1.
The grounds for this assertion are unclear, but perhaps it is made
because researchers took the convenient approach of using it to make
their curvature measurement. However that may be, the assertion is
false, because the equation actually is V = V*(R/R)1/3 , a
tautology that is true for any “V” whatever, and that allows for no
inferences at all with respect to V.

4. Rick uses his assertion in 3 to state that V and curvature are

mathematically related, which they are not. The rest of the analysis
therefore fails and need not be considered further.

-------end restatement--------

Actually one does not have to use mathematics to see the falsity of

Rick’s point 4. As has been pointed out many times, curvature has no
relation to time, whereas velocity does. At the risk of inducing
boredom by repetition, curvature has the dimension (1/length), while
velocity has a dimension (length/time). Although they may be related
in experimental observations, they are not, and could not be,
mathematically related.

That fact alone should have led Rick to question his quaint notion

that equation 2 (presumably Gribble and Ostry’s equation 9) shows a
relationship between V and R. He could have seen immediately that V3
occurs in the numerator and denominator of that equation, and
cancels out. Having seen that, he would never have posted his
analysis in the first place, and would have saved everyone two
months of uncomprehending nonsense.

Martin

image328.png

···
                Bruce

Abbott (2016.09.15.0800 EDT)–

                      RM: So your complaint is

that my analysis assumes that V and R must be
in the same fixed relation from one moment to
another. But that’s precisely what my analysis
doesn’t assume. My analysis is completely
blind to the moment to moment relation between
V and R values.Â

Â

                      BA:Â 

No, that’s not my complaint! But
before we get into this, how about complying
with my request? I asked you to restate my
explanation why your analysis is based on a
conceptual error. We do seem to be making
progress – you say that you read it. That’s a
good start. All that’s left is for you to
restate my explanation.

          RM: Actually, I think it's about time for you to start

restating my explanation of the power law. All you have
done throughout this discussion is repeat that I have made
a “conceptual error” and that if I would just understand
that error then I would finally see the light and know
that my analysis is invalid. This doesn’t cut it with me
anymore.Â

          RM: If, indeed, I am making a conceptual error that

invalidates my analysis then show me how it does that * in
terms of my analysis* . In order to do this you have
to know what my analysis is. And I have seen no sign that
you do.

          So I suggest that you prove to me that you understand

my analysis before you start telling me what’s wrong with
it. Â

          RM: A good way to prove that you understand my analysis

is to explain exactly how my “conceptual error”
invalidates it. That is, describe what you think if my
analysis and then show me exactly how my “conceptual
error” invalidates it. Here’s a quick summary of my
analysis, in case you’ve forgotten (most important steps
are bolded):

          1. Power law researchers measure the instantaneous

velocity (V) and curvature (R) that occur throughout a
movement using the following formulas:

        2. The power law is determined using linear regression

analysis with the logarithms of these measures of curvature
and velocity as the predictor and criterion variables,
respectively. The regression equation is:Â

log (V) = a + b* log (R) Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â (1)

        3. There is a linear relationship between the logs of V

and R when V and R are computed using equations 8 and 9, as
follows:

log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) + 1/3*log(R) Â Â (2)

4. ** So power law researchers are using linear
regression to determine whether there is a linear
relationship between variables that are mathematically
linearly related, per equation 2**.

** 5. However, they are using equation 1 to determine the
relationship that is actually defined by equation 2. So
there is a “missing variable” (V^3/R, also known as D) in
their prediction equation**.

** 6. Because of this missing variable, a linear
regression analysis using equation 1 will find a value of
b (the coefficient of log(R), known as the power
coefficient) that is “biased” relative to its true value
of 1/3.**

        6. The degree to which b is a biased estimate of the true

coefficient of log(R) is proportional to the ratio of the
covariance of R and D to the variance of R: cov(R,D)/var(R).

        7. This means that, for any movement trajectory, it is

possible to predict exactly what power coefficient will be
found relating R to V from the folllowing equation:Â

b = b* + a  * cov(R,D)/var(R).Â

        where b = observed power coefficient, b* = true power

coefficient, a = true coefficient of D

        That is, you can predict exactly what the power

coefficient will be without analyzing (using log-log
regression) the relationship between R and V. I have
confirmed this fact using many movement trajectories, some
made by humans, some by helicopters.

        8. The conclusion of my analysis is that the power law

coefficient that is found for different movements depends
completely on characteristics of the movement trajectory
itself and has nothing to do with how it was produced.Â

        RM: Now please restate my analysis and tell me how my

“conceptual error” invalidates this analysis. Â

[From Fred Nickols (2016.09.15.1450 ET)]

I’m not trying to derail this conversation or muck it up but there is something in Martin’s restatement down below that really puzzles me. Here’s the snippet:

MT: 1.3. Researchers use the measurements in Cartesian space to determine the curvature of the trajectory at each point along it. For convenience they use the measures they already took in 1 and 2.

Here’s what I don’t understand: How can you determine curvature at a point on a trajectory? It seems to me you need two points on a trajectory to determine if there is any curvature or how much curvature.

Fred Nickols

image00266.png

···

From: Martin Taylor [mailto:mmt-csg@mmtaylor.net]
Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2016 2:25 PM
To: csgnet@lists.illinois.edu
Subject: Re: Math Mistakes

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.15.13.41]

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.15.1030)]

Bruce Abbott (2016.09.15.0800 EDT)–

RM: So your complaint is that my analysis assumes that V and R must be in the same fixed relation from one moment to another. But that’s precisely what my analysis doesn’t assume. My analysis is completely blind to the moment to moment relation between V and R values.

BA: No, that’s not my complaint! But before we get into this, how about complying with my request? I asked you to restate my explanation why your analysis is based on a conceptual error. We do seem to be making progress – you sayy that you read it. That’s a good start. All that’s left is for you to restate my explanation.

RM: Actually, I think it’s about time for you to start restating my explanation of the power law. All you have done throughout this discussion is repeat that I have made a “conceptual error” and that if I would just understand that error then I would finally see the light and know that my analysis is invalid. This doesn’t cut it with me anymore.

RM: If, indeed, I am making a conceptual error that invalidates my analysis then show me how it does that in terms of my analysis. In order to do this you have to know what my analysis is. And I have seen no sign that you do.

The fact that you see no sign, despite the flaw having been pointed out (to quote myself) “six ways from Sunday” and two more ways since then, is the problem. I don’t know how Bruce will respond, but I’ll just state it without further explanation. (I see you asked me to do the same, so I no longer feel I am pre-empting Bruce).

You’ve had the explanation may times, starting less than an hour after you first proposed your analysis. But here goes again.

So I suggest that you prove to me that you understand my analysis before you start telling me what’s wrong with it.

RM: A good way to prove that you understand my analysis is to explain exactly how my “conceptual error” invalidates it. That is, describe what you think if my analysis and then show me exactly how my “conceptual error” invalidates it. Here’s a quick summary of my analysis, in case you’ve forgotten (most important steps are bolded):

  1. Power law researchers measure the instantaneous velocity (V) and curvature (R) that occur throughout a movement using the following formulas:

Inline image 1

  1. The power law is determined using linear regression analysis with the logarithms of these measures of curvature and velocity as the predictor and criterion variables, respectively. The regression equation is:

log (V) = a + b* log (R) (1)

So far, so good.

  1. There is a linear relationship between the logs of V and R when V and R are computed using equations 8 and 9, as follows:

log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) + 1/3*log(R) (2)

So there is, but that V isn’t necessarily the same V. It’s any variable AT ALL. And that possibility includes that it could be the same. If x/0 = infinity and 3/0 = infinity, x COULD BE 3, but you can’t use x = 3 in any further computations. Likewise, since V could be just about anything at all (the limits of that statement have been stated previously) you can’t use that V as being the observed values of V as a function of x and y in any further analysis.

4. So power law researchers are using linear regression to determine whether there is a linear relationship between variables that are mathematically linearly related, per equation 2.

Nope. They are using linear regression to find whether there is a linear relationship between variables that are NOT mathematically linearly related.

5. However, they are using equation 1 to determine the relationship that is actually defined by equation 2. So there is a “missing variable” (V^3/R, also known as D) in their prediction equation.

Nope.

6. Because of this missing variable, a linear regression analysis using equation 1 will find a value of b (the coefficient of log(R), known as the power coefficient) that is “biased” relative to its true value of 1/3.

Nope.

  1. The degree to which b is a biased estimate of the true coefficient of log(R) is proportional to the ratio of the covariance of R and D to the variance of R: cov(R,D)/var(R).

Nope.

  1. This means that, for any movement trajectory, it is possible to predict exactly what power coefficient will be found relating R to V from the folllowing equation:

b = b* + a * cov(R,D)/var(R).

where b = observed power coefficient, b* = true power coefficient, a = true coefficient of D

Nope.

That is, you can predict exactly what the power coefficient will be without analyzing (using log-log regression) the relationship between R and V. I have confirmed this fact using many movement trajectories, some made by humans, some by helicopters.

No you haven’t, not in what you have presented on CSGnet.

  1. The conclusion of my analysis is that the power law coefficient that is found for different movements depends completely on characteristics of the movement trajectory itself and has nothing to do with how it was produced.

RM: Now please restate my analysis and tell me how my “conceptual error” invalidates this analysis.

OK,

-----Restatement-------

1.1 Researchers observe the velocity of something that moves in space. They quantify this movement in Cartesian coordinates.

1.2. Researchers determine the trajectory of the moving object and quantify it as a curve in the same Cartesian space.

1.3. Researchers use the measurements in Cartesian space to determine the curvature of the trajectory at each point along it. For convenience they use the measures they already took in 1 and 2.

  1. Researchers note that their observed velocities have a relationship with the curvature they measure.

  2. Rick notices that the curvature equation looks as though it can be transposed so as to show a variable “V” as if it could be determined from the right-hand side of the equation. He does this by hiding the identical “V” in a newly defined variable on the right side, though he seems to be unaware that this is what he is doing. Then he asserts that this “V” MUST BE the velocity measured in 1.1. The grounds for this assertion are unclear, but perhaps it is made because researchers took the convenient approach of using it to make their curvature measurement. However that may be, the assertion is false, because the equation actually is V = V*(R/R)1/3, a tautology that is true for any “V” whatever, and that allows for no inferences at all with respect to V.

  3. Rick uses his assertion in 3 to state that V and curvature are mathematically related, which they are not. The rest of the analysis therefore fails and need not be considered further.

-------end restatement--------

Actually one does not have to use mathematics to see the falsity of Rick’s point 4. As has been pointed out many times, curvature has no relation to time, whereas velocity does. At the risk of inducing boredom by repetition, curvature has the dimension (1/length), while velocity has a dimension (length/time). Although they may be related in experimental observations, they are not, and could not be, mathematically related.

That fact alone should have led Rick to question his quaint notion that equation 2 (presumably Gribble and Ostry’s equation 9) shows a relationship between V and R. He could have seen immediately that V3 occurs in the numerator and denominator of that equation, and cancels out. Having seen that, he would never have posted his analysis in the first place, and would have saved everyone two months of uncomprehending nonsense.

Martin

[From
Fred Nickols (2016.09.15.1450 ET)]

Â

        I’m

not trying to derail this conversation or muck it up but
there is something in Martin’s restatement down below that
really puzzles me. Here’s the snippet:

Â

      MT:
      1.3. Researchers use the measurements in Cartesian

space to determine the curvature of the trajectory at each
point along it. For convenience they use the measures they
already took in 1 and 2.

Â

        Here’s

what I don’t understand: How can you determine curvature at
a point on a trajectory? It seems to me you need two points
on a trajectory to determine if there is any curvature or
how much curvature.

image00266.png

···

From:
Martin Taylor [mailto:mmt-csg@mmtaylor.net]
Sent: Thursday, September 15, 2016 2:25 PM
To: csgnet@lists.illinois.edu
Subject: Re: Math Mistakes

Â

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.15.13.41]

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.15.1030)]

Â

                    Bruce

Abbott (2016.09.15.0800 EDT)–

Â

                        RM:

So your complaint is that my analysis
assumes that V and R must be in the same
fixed relation from one moment to another.
But that’s precisely what my analysis
doesn’t assume. My analysis is completely
blind to the moment to moment relation
between V and R values.Â

Â

                          BA:Â 

No, that’s not my complaint! But
before we get into this, how about
complying with my request? I asked you to
restate my explanation why your analysis
is based on a conceptual error. We do
seem to be making progress – you say that
you read it. That’s a good start. All
that’s left is for you to restate my
explanation.

Â

                RM: Actually, I think it's about

time for you to start restating my explanation of
the power law. All you have done throughout this
discussion is repeat that I have made a “conceptual
error” and that if I would just understand that
error then I would finally see the light and know
that my analysis is invalid. This doesn’t cut it
with me anymore.Â

Â

                RM: If, indeed, I am making a

conceptual error that invalidates my analysis then
show me how it does that in terms of my analysis .
In order to do this you have to know what my
analysis is. And I have seen no sign that you do.

        The fact that you see no sign, despite the flaw having been 

pointed out (to quote myself) “six ways from Sunday” and two
more ways since then, is the problem. I don’t know how Bruce
will respond, but I’ll just state it without further
explanation. (I see you asked me to do the same, so I no
longer feel I am pre-empting Bruce).

        You've had the explanation may times, starting less than an

hour after you first proposed your analysis. But here goes
again.

                So I suggest that you prove to me

that you understand my analysis before you start
telling me what’s wrong with it. Â

Â

                RM: A good way to prove that you

understand my analysis is to explain exactly how my
“conceptual error” invalidates it. That is, describe
what you think if my analysis and then show me
exactly how my “conceptual error” invalidates it.
Here’s a quick summary of my analysis, in case
you’ve forgotten (most important steps are bolded):

Â

                1. Power law researchers measure

the instantaneous velocity (V) and curvature (R)
that occur throughout a movement using the following
formulas:

Â

Â

Â

              2. The power law is determined

using linear regression analysis with the logarithms
of these measures of curvature and velocity as the
predictor and criterion variables, respectively. The
regression equation is:Â

Â

              log (V) = a + b* log (R) Â  Â  Â  Â  Â 

          (1)

Â

        So far, so good.

              3. There is a linear relationship

between the logs of V and R when V and R are computed
using equations 8 and 9, as follows:

Â

              log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) +

1/3*log(R) Â Â (2)

        So there is, but that V isn't necessarily the same V. It's

any variable AT ALL. And that possibility includes that it
could be the same. If x/0 = infinity and 3/0 = infinity, x
COULD BE 3, but you can’t use x = 3 in any further
computations. Likewise, since V could be just about anything
at all (the limits of that statement have been stated
previously) you can’t use that V as being the observed
values of V as a function of x and y in any further
analysis.

Â

4. ** So power law
researchers are using linear regression to determine
whether there is a linear relationship between
variables that are mathematically linearly related,
per equation 2**.

        Nope. They are using linear regression to find whether there

is a linear relationship between variables that are NOT
mathematically linearly related.

Â

** 5. However, they are using
equation 1 to determine the relationship that is
actually defined by equation 2. So there is a
“missing variable” (V^3/R, also known as D) in their
prediction equation**.

        Nope.

Â

** 6. Because of this missing
variable, a linear regression analysis using
equation 1 will find a value of b (the coefficient
of log(R), known as the power coefficient) that is
“biased” relative to its true value of 1/3.**

        Nope.

Â

              6. The degree to which b is a

biased estimate of the true coefficient of log(R) is
proportional to the ratio of the covariance of R and D
to the variance of R: cov(R,D)/var(R).

        Nope.

Â

              7. This means that, for any

movement trajectory, it is possible to predict exactly
what power coefficient will be found relating R to V
from the folllowing equation:Â

Â

b = b* + a  * cov(R,D)/var(R).Â

Â

              where b = observed power

coefficient, b* = true power coefficient, a = true
coefficient of D

        Nope.

Â

              That is, you can predict exactly

what the power coefficient will be without analyzing
(using log-log regression) the relationship between R
and V. I have confirmed this fact using many movement
trajectories, some made by humans, some by
helicopters.

        No you haven't, not in what you have presented on CSGnet.

Â

              8. The conclusion of my analysis is

that the power law coefficient that is found for
different movements depends completely on
characteristics of the movement trajectory itself and
has nothing to do with how it was produced.Â

Â

              RM: Now please restate my analysis

and tell me how my “conceptual error” invalidates this
analysis. Â

        OK,

        -----Restatement-------

        1.1 Researchers observe the velocity of something that moves

in space. They quantify this movement in Cartesian
coordinates.

        1.2. Researchers determine the trajectory of the moving

object and quantify it as a curve in the same Cartesian
space.

        1.3. Researchers use the measurements in Cartesian space to

determine the curvature of the trajectory at each point
along it. For convenience they use the measures they already
took in 1 and 2.

        2. Researchers note that their observed velocities have a

relationship with the curvature they measure.

        3. Rick notices that the curvature equation looks as though

it can be transposed so as to show a variable “V” as if it
could be determined from the right-hand side of the
equation. He does this by hiding the identical “V” in a
newly defined variable on the right side, though he seems to
be unaware that this is what he is doing. Then he asserts
that this “V” MUST BE the velocity measured in 1.1. The
grounds for this assertion are unclear, but perhaps it is
made because researchers took the convenient approach of
using it to make their curvature measurement. However that
may be, the assertion is false, because the equation
actually is V = V*(R/R)1/3 , a tautology that is
true for any “V” whatever, and that allows for no inferences
at all with respect to V.

        4. Rick uses his assertion in 3 to state that V and

curvature are mathematically related, which they are not.
The rest of the analysis therefore fails and need not be
considered further.

        -------end restatement--------

        Actually one does not have to use mathematics to see the

falsity of Rick’s point 4. As has been pointed out many
times, curvature has no relation to time, whereas velocity
does. At the risk of inducing boredom by repetition,
curvature has the dimension (1/length), while velocity has a
dimension (length/time). Although they may be related in
experimental observations, they are not, and could not be,
mathematically related.

        That fact alone should have led Rick to question his quaint

notion that equation 2 (presumably Gribble and Ostry’s
equation 9) shows a relationship between V and R. He could
have seen immediately that V3 occurs in the
numerator and denominator of that equation, and cancels out.
Having seen that, he would never have posted his analysis in
the first place, and would have saved everyone two months of
uncomprehending nonsense.

        Martin

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.15.1540)]

image328.png

···

Martin Taylor (2016.09.15.13.41)–

MT: You've had the explanation may times, starting less than an hour

after you first proposed your analysis. But here goes again.

RM: Thank you, Martin, for this point by point critique of my analysis.

MT: So far, so good.

MT: So there is, but that V isn't necessarily the same V. It's any

variable AT ALL.

RM: No, V is the variable computed according to equation 8.

MT: And that possibility includes that it could be the

same. If x/0 = infinity and 3/0 = infinity, x COULD BE 3, but you
can’t use x = 3 in any further computations. Likewise, since V could
be just about anything at all (the limits of that statement have
been stated previously) you can’t use that V as being the observed
values of V as a function of x and y in any further analysis.

RM: Again, V is the variable defined in equation 8. We are talking about actual, measured data here. Equation (2) describes how variables measured per equations 8 and 9 are related. V can’t be anything other than the value computed from the X,Y positions of a movement trajectory per equation 8.

MT: Nope. They are using linear regression to find whether there is a

linear relationship between variables that are NOT mathematically
linearly related.

RM: Equation (2) above shows that there is unquestionably a mathematical relationship between V and R when these variables are measured as per equations 8 and 9. And I have shown with my spreadsheet analysis of many different movement trajectories that log(V) is exactly the linear function of log(V^3/R) and log(R) described by equation 2.

MT: Nope.

RM: Re-nope (equivalent to the re-double in bridge).

MT: Nope.

RM: Re-nope.

MT: Nope.

RM: Re-nope.

MT: Nope.

RM: Re-nope.

MT: No you haven’t, not in what you have presented on CSGnet.

RM: I didn’t send the helicopter tracks but I did send the spreadsheet with the omitted variable bias (OVB) calculations, which shows that you can predict exactly what the power coefficient will be when only log (R) is used as a predictor of log (V) by knowing only cov(R,D)/var(R) (actually, cov(log(R),log(D))/var(log(R)). It made no impression, possibly because it was not easy to understand. So I’ve decided not to post stuff until it’s in a form that seems more user friendly.

RM: So with that I leave you to the dead end that is your approach to the power law.

Best regards

Rick

OK,



-----Restatement-------



1.1 Researchers observe the velocity of something that moves in

space. They quantify this movement in Cartesian coordinates.

1.2. Researchers determine the trajectory of the moving object and

quantify it as a curve in the same Cartesian space.

1.3. Researchers use the measurements in Cartesian space to

determine the curvature of the trajectory at each point along it.
For convenience they use the measures they already took in 1 and 2.

2. Researchers note that their observed velocities have a

relationship with the curvature they measure.

3. Rick notices that the curvature equation looks as though it can

be transposed so as to show a variable “V” as if it could be
determined from the right-hand side of the equation. He does this by
hiding the identical “V” in a newly defined variable on the right
side, though he seems to be unaware that this is what he is doing.
Then he asserts that this “V” MUST BE the velocity measured in 1.1.
The grounds for this assertion are unclear, but perhaps it is made
because researchers took the convenient approach of using it to make
their curvature measurement. However that may be, the assertion is
false, because the equation actually is V = V*(R/R)1/3 , a
tautology that is true for any “V” whatever, and that allows for no
inferences at all with respect to V.

4. Rick uses his assertion in 3 to state that V and curvature are

mathematically related, which they are not. The rest of the analysis
therefore fails and need not be considered further.

-------end restatement--------



Actually one does not have to use mathematics to see the falsity of

Rick’s point 4. As has been pointed out many times, curvature has no
relation to time, whereas velocity does. At the risk of inducing
boredom by repetition, curvature has the dimension (1/length), while
velocity has a dimension (length/time). Although they may be related
in experimental observations, they are not, and could not be,
mathematically related.

That fact alone should have led Rick to question his quaint notion

that equation 2 (presumably Gribble and Ostry’s equation 9) shows a
relationship between V and R. He could have seen immediately that V3
occurs in the numerator and denominator of that equation, and
cancels out. Having seen that, he would never have posted his
analysis in the first place, and would have saved everyone two
months of uncomprehending nonsense.

Martin


Richard S. Marken

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for
others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for
themselves.” – William T. Powers

          RM: If, indeed, I am making a conceptual error that

invalidates my analysis then show me how it does that * in
terms of my analysis* . In order to do this you have
to know what my analysis is. And I have seen no sign that
you do.

          RM: 1. Power law researchers measure the instantaneous

velocity (V) and curvature (R) that occur throughout a
movement using the following formulas:

        2. The power law is determined using linear regression

analysis with the logarithms of these measures of curvature
and velocity as the predictor and criterion variables,
respectively. The regression equation is:

log (V) = a + b* log (R) (1)

        RM: 3. There is a linear relationship between the logs of V

and R when V and R are computed using equations 8 and 9, as
follows:

log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) + 1/3*log(R) (2)

4. ** So power law researchers are using linear
regression to determine whether there is a linear
relationship between variables that are mathematically
linearly related, per equation 2**.

RM: ** 5. However, they are using equation 1 to determine the
relationship that is actually defined by equation 2. So
there is a “missing variable” (V^3/R, also known as D) in
their prediction equation**.

** 6. Because of this missing variable, a linear
regression analysis using equation 1 will find a value of
b (the coefficient of log(R), known as the power
coefficient) that is “biased” relative to its true value
of 1/3.**

        6. The degree to which b is a biased estimate of the true

coefficient of log(R) is proportional to the ratio of the
covariance of R and D to the variance of R: cov(R,D)/var(R).

        7. This means that, for any movement trajectory, it is

possible to predict exactly what power coefficient will be
found relating R to V from the folllowing equation:

b = b* + a * cov(R,D)/var(R).

        where b = observed power coefficient, b* = true power

coefficient, a = true coefficient of D

        RM: That is, you can predict exactly what the power

coefficient will be without analyzing (using log-log
regression) the relationship between R and V. I have
confirmed this fact using many movement trajectories, some
made by humans, some by helicopters.

        8. The conclusion of my analysis is that the power law

coefficient that is found for different movements depends
completely on characteristics of the movement trajectory
itself and has nothing to do with how it was produced.

        RM: Now please restate my analysis and tell me how my

“conceptual error” invalidates this analysis.

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.15.23.25]

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.15.1540)]

It could be if you wanted it to be, but it could be anything else as

well. It’s a separate issue from the determination of V from
equation 8. So if you want to use this other V as if it had the same
value as the measured V, be aware that the rest of the development
rests totally on your personal preference, nothing else.

Martin

image328.png

···

Martin Taylor (2016.09.15.13.41)–

            MT: You've had the explanation may times,

starting less than an hour after you first proposed your
analysis. But here goes again.

          RM: Thank you, Martin, for this point by point critique

of my analysis.

            MT: So far, so good.
            MT: So there is, but that V isn't necessarily the

same V. It’s any variable AT ALL.

          RM: No, V is the variable computed according to

equation 8.

                        RM: If, indeed, I am making a conceptual

error that invalidates my analysis then show
me how it does that * in terms of my
analysis* . In order to do this you have
to know what my analysis is. And I have seen
no sign that you do.

                        RM: 1. Power law researchers measure the

instantaneous velocity (V) and curvature (R)
that occur throughout a movement using the
following formulas:

                      2. The power law is determined using linear

regression analysis with the logarithms of
these measures of curvature and velocity as
the predictor and criterion variables,
respectively. The regression equation is:

                      log (V) = a + b* log (R)                  
       (1)

                      RM: 3. There is a linear relationship

between the logs of V and R when V and R are
computed using equations 8 and 9, as follows:

                      log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) + 1/3*log(R)    

(2)

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.16.0815)]

···

Martin Taylor (2016.09.15.23.25)

MT: It could be if you wanted it to be, but it could be anything else as

well.

RM: It’s a datum, not a choice;-)

Best

Rick

            MT: So there is, but that V isn't necessarily the

same V. It’s any variable AT ALL.

          RM: No, V is the variable computed according to

equation 8.

                      log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) + 1/3*log(R)    

(2)

Richard S. Marken

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for
others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for
themselves.” – William T. Powers

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.16.11.37]

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.16.0815)]

When you first posted this same mistake back in July, I thought

“That’s an easy mistake to make, but it’s easily corrected and soon
forgotten.” Indeed, Alex corrected it within the hour. And yet, here
you are two months later, after several people have pointed out in a
variety of different ways just why it is a mistake, and you
are still asserting that your private opinion carries more weight
than mathematics or logic. I wonder why?

Enough on this topic. I'm going to follow Roger, and think about

what really may lie behind the power law.

Martin
···

Martin Taylor (2016.09.15.23.25)

            MT: It could be if you wanted it to be, but it

could be anything else as well.

RM: It’s a datum, not a choice;-)

                          MT: So there is, but that V isn't

necessarily the same V. It’s any variable
AT ALL.

                        RM: No, V is the variable computed

according to equation 8.

                                    log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) +

1/3*log(R) (2)

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.16.0855)]

···

Martin Taylor (2016.09.16.11.37)–

MT: Enough on this topic. I'm going to follow Roger, and think about

what really may lie behind the power law.

RM: I think that’s a super idea!

Best

Rick

Richard S. Marken

“The childhood of the human race is far from over. We
have a long way to go before most people will understand that what they do for
others is just as important to their well-being as what they do for
themselves.” – William T. Powers

[Chad Green (2016.09.16.1242)]

“Proposition 4: The greater the power, the less the rationality

Kant said, ‘The possession of power unavoidably spoils the free use of reason.’ On the basis of the Aalborg study, we may expand on Kant by observing that the
possession of more power appears to spoil reason even more.

One of the privileges of power, and an integral part of its rationality, is the freedom to define reality. The greater the power, the greater the freedom in this
respect, and the less need for power to understand how reality is ‘really’ constructed. The absence of rational arguments and factual documentation in support of certain actions may be more important indicators of power than arguments and documentation produced.
Power knows that which Nietzsche calls ‘the doctrine of Hamlet,’ that is, the fact that often ‘[k]nowledge kills action; action requires the veils of illusion.’ A party’s unwillingness to present rational argument or documentation may quite simply indicate
its freedom to act, and its freedom to define reality.â€? – Bent Flyvbjerg (Rationality and Power)

Source:
http://flyvbjerg.plan.aau.dk/ratpowexcerpt.php

Best,

Chad

···

Chad T. Green, PMP

Research Office

Loudoun County Public Schools

21000 Education Court

Ashburn, VA 20148

Voice: 571-252-1486

Fax: 571-252-1575

“We are not what we know but what we are willing to learn.� - Mary Catherine Bateson

From: Martin Taylor [mailto:mmt-csg@mmtaylor.net]
Sent: Friday, September 16, 2016 11:48 AM
To: csgnet@lists.illinois.edu
Subject: Re: Math Mistakes

[Martin Taylor 2016.09.16.11.37]

[From Rick Marken (2016.09.16.0815)]

Martin Taylor (2016.09.15.23.25)

log (V) = 1/3 * log(V^3/R) + 1/3*log(R) (2)

MT: So there is, but that V isn’t necessarily the same V. It’s any variable AT ALL.

RM: No, V is the variable computed according to equation 8.

MT: It could be if you wanted it to be, but it could be anything else as well.

RM: It’s a datum, not a choice;-)

When you first posted this same mistake back in July, I thought “That’s an easy mistake to make, but it’s easily corrected and soon forgotten.” Indeed, Alex corrected it within the hour. And yet, here you are
two months later, after several people have pointed out in a variety of different ways just why it
is a mistake, and you are still asserting that your private opinion carries more weight than mathematics or logic. I wonder why?

Enough on this topic. I’m going to follow Roger, and think about what really may lie behind the power law.

Martin