[From Richard Kennaway (20110106.2200 GMT)]
Just came across this quote:
This is how Vetinari thinks, his soul exulted. Plans can break down. You cannot plan the future. Only presumptuous fools plan. The wise man *steers*.
Terry Pratchett, "Making Money"
[From Avery Andrews (20110106.2243 GMT)]
But, my impression of successful generals is that first they plan profusely, then they steer (and expect to have to from the beginning). Maybe the planning is controlling for a perception of in the future, being able to steer.
________________________________________
From: Control Systems Group Network (CSGnet) [CSGNET@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU] On Behalf Of Kennaway Richard Dr (CMP) [R.Kennaway@UEA.AC.UK]
Sent: Friday, January 07, 2011 8:59 AM
To: CSGNET@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU
Subject: PCT on the Discworld
[From Richard Kennaway (20110106.2200 GMT)]
Just came across this quote:
This is how Vetinari thinks, his soul exulted. Plans can break down. You cannot plan the future. Only presumptuous fools plan. The wise man *steers*.
Terry Pratchett, "Making Money"
(Gavin Ritz 2011.01.07.13.00NZT)
[From Avery Andrews
(20110106.2243 GMT)]
But, my impression of successful generals is that
first they plan profusely, then they steer (and expect to have to from the
beginning). Maybe the planning is controlling for a perception of in the
future, being able to steer.
[From Richard Kennaway
(20110106.2200 GMT)]
Just came across this quote:
This is how Vetinari thinks, his
soul exulted. Plans can break down. You cannot plan the future. Only
presumptuous fools plan. The wise man steers.
I wonder what he means
by planning. This is a rather strange comment. Does he mean short term plans
(objectives), medium term plans (goals), long term plans (missions).
Of course plans can
breakdown that’s why there are contingency plans.
I think there are both heuristics
and algorithms involved in any type of futuring.
I think PCT tells us we
do a lot of stuff, the controlled variables are planning, guessing, testing,
objective setting, re-setting, etec
Reminds me of a story
about the presumptuous steersman, a man was with his wife on holiday and was
driving to some holiday place they had booked.
His wife was the
navigator, he was the driver, and she says to him,”Honey you’ve taken
the wrong turning we’re going south, we need to go north”
He replies “honey,
don’t worry were making great time”.
Terry Pratchett, "Making Money"(Gavin Ritz 2011.01.07.13.22NZT)
[From Avery Andrews
(20110106.2243 GMT)]
But, my impression of successful generals is that
first they plan profusely, then they steer (and expect to have to from the
beginning). Maybe the planning is controlling for a perception of in the
future, being able to steer.
I think you may be
correct Avery, planning is
a controlled variable. Some people have poor futuring capabilities and others
are very adept at it.
This has been the focus
of 50 years of research by Elliot Jaques on
this very aspect of the roles officers play in a military hierarchy. Elliot succeeded
in finding an actual measure of this. The size of the role and the individual is
requisitely required to be matched. Simply put his/her individual capability must
fit the size of the role.
In my earlier threads I
have said that the controlled variable is the control of Reality’s ultimately
perception and some are really proficient at futuring because their Reality is
structured in a particular way, defined by Jaques as the logical connectives at
various levels of abstractions. (Category abstractions).
If you cut out all the
fluff about PCT in a nutshell, the HPCT
is an assumption of Reality and
the (Controlled variable) PCVn to ****infinity is its
selection control.
[From Richard Kennaway
(20110106.2200 GMT)]
Just came across this quote:
This is how Vetinari thinks, his
soul exulted. Plans can break down. You cannot plan the future. Only
presumptuous fools plan. The wise man steers.
Terry Pratchett, "Making Money"