Bill Powers (2001.05.23.1030 MDT) --
Bruce Abbott (2001.05.23.1030 EST)
I think the next step may be to generate a list of
implications of the model, together with a description of the tests that
have been conducted to examine these implications and the results obtained.
Excellent. Some discussion of the tests with me and others really ought to
precede the conclusions, however. For example, I don't think we agree
completely on the outcome of the attempts to model the rat experiments.
It's too bad there are so few of us -- a meaningful consensus is hard to get.
Yes, discussion would be good. My tentative plan is to begin by talking
about what I would call "proofs of principle," which mainly take the form of
computer simulations -- the "Little Man" demo, for example. I don't think
we would find too much disagreement there about conclusions.
I may not be aware of all the relevant studies, so perhaps we could start by
developing a list . . .
The biggest problem we had (or at least that bothered me), as I recall, was
that the rats didn't seem to increase their rate of eating in the
experimental cage when the food available in the living cage was decreased.
This implies that there was NO variable controlled by the rats' varying the
amount of food they ate in different places. That would make no sense in a
natural environment -- if the food runs out in one place, why would a rat
not seek and eat more food in another place? Did we do something to prevent
this obvious strategy from being learned? Did the fact that the rat did not
propel itself into the experimental cage in search of more food have
something to do with it? I can see how we might have done the experiment
differently -- now.
An additional possibility: At first the food given to the rats in the home
cage (after the initial total deprivation period) was artificially varied
to maintain their weight at a low level, so the experimenter was strongly
controlling the rats' weight in conflict with any control the rats may have
tried to exert. This may have had a profound effect on the young rats'
ability to control their own weights. Eating more in the experimental cage
would only result in less food being available in the living cage. Did the
rats learn that right away? But that's just speculation. I would really
like to see a "clean" PCT experiment done.
In my view, there were two main problems with that experiment. The first
problem is that the rats had a "back-door" method for controlling body
weight that I was not equipped to monitor directly: adjustment of metabolic
rate. Thus it was possible that when food amount in the home cage was
restricted, the rat could simply reduce its metabolism and get by on less.
(I found a nice study showing that such a change does "kick in" when the
rat's body weight exceeds about a 10% reduction below normal values.)
The second and probably more important problem may have been the existence
of a short-term satiety mechanism (filling of the gut etc.) that probably
brought eating in the operant chamber to a halt before enought food had been
consumed to keep body weight near a reference value. By the time the gut
emptied enough to permit further consumption, the session was over and the
rat had no further opportunity to make up the deficit.
I did run a short test of this hypothesis toward the end of the study. This
involved placing the rat back into the operant chamber for a second operant
session in the afternoon (i.e., two operant sessions/day rather than one).
As I recall, the rats did return to the lever during the second session each
day and consume more food, which is consistent with the hypothesis. I don't
recall whether this led to better control over body weight, but I still have
the data so it shouldn't be much of a problem to find out.
Also, when we started the experiment, I don't think either of us realized
that female rats increase their body weight fairly steadily during their
lives. Assuming a constant reference level for a weight control system
therefore was a mistake. I now think we should have _deduced_ the reference
signal from the data. Of course this would have assured a perfect fit, but
the question then would have been whether the changes in the model's
variables that resulted were clearly systematic.
Yes -- in fact, I found data from one of the suppliers showing the
time-course of average weight over the lifespan. If the short-term satiety
problem did occur, as I believe it did, this would have made inferring the
reference body-weight from the data a bit problematic. However, we did have
three rats in that study that were kept in the metabolic cages (no operant
sessions) and given food ad libitum. Even there we had some problems
fitting model to data. A prime suspect there was the female estrus cycle.
I guess that episode left me pretty frustrated.
Me too, but I think that some good may have come from it -- we learned that
the system in question is more complicated than our simple model allowed
for, and have a better idea of what additional variables we need to be
measuring or taking account of in the experimental design. Moreover,
although the performance of the simulation was below the usual standards, it
actually did a fair job of accounting for much of the change in body weight
over the different conditions imposed.
Best wishes,
Bruce A.