Quick question for libertarians

[Shannon Williams (2011.07.15.700 CST)]

(Gavin Ritz 2011.07.15.17.13NZT)

�Your statement is equivalent to saying that there would be no economy
if everyone were rich.

I don�t understand how you can say this; even the rich borrow money, that�s
how we make money by leverage.

You said 'In any economy', but you are not thinking of any economy.
You are thinking of the one you live in now. I described an economy
(without hoping for it) where every item in the economy is within the
means of every person. This would equate to an economy where either
there are no big structures (like skyscrapers and malls) or these
things have already been built by the generations before. I then said
all of the people in the economy are rich. I then described what
activity the economy would consist of and what would be required to
the economy flowing.

I am just saying that the economy is not constrained by physical laws
to operate the way that it operates today.

It�s not the money that matters it�s the game of making it and what one can
do with it. As I have said before it�s an energetic game, internal
concentration external accumulation.

Yes. These are your controlled variables. they are not related to
the distribution of goods and services. I propose that these
variables be satisfied on the gridiron or in the research lab or
somewhere else besides in our blood/water supply.

OK.� I agree that accumulation of resources is stopping the flow of

the economy.� But it does not need to pop the system

It always does, it�s called a bubble and it always bursts,

Yep. If we keep doing the same things we will keep getting the same results.

Shannon Williams
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

[Shannon Williams (2011.07.15.730 CST)]

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 15 0032 MDT]

No. most Americans do not have any savings. �Check out
(http://www.billshrink.com/blog/10053/how-much-do-american-save/)

Savings rates tend to go up in a recession.

That does not matter if you just do not save money. Google 'how much
money does the average American have in savings accounts'. Young
people who are more interested in sex and companionship, and people
who have children or parents or a lifestyle to support don't tend to
save money. This is over 90% of the adult population.

It is sad that double
taxation incentivises keeping that money instead of distributing it to share

Hey, do you agree that the taxed money ends up flowing through the
economy? Just checking.

Shannon Williams
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

[Shannon Williams (2011.07.15.730 CST)]

(Gavin Ritz 2011 July 15, 19.02NZT)

� If the money

is in interest bearing accounts, it wouldn't be the rich taking it out

of circulation

Yes it is. There is a huge difference between someone investing in
your company and someone lending you money. Which do you prefer?
Especially if you get to keep control in either situation.

I never understand why the rich are singled out as some weird,

Because of the gaming goals that you described in previous email.

Shannon Williams
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 15 0701 MDT]

[Shannon Williams (2011.07.15.730 CST)]

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 15 0032 MDT]

No. most Americans do not have any savings. Check out
(http://www.billshrink.com/blog/10053/how-much-do-american-save/)

Savings rates tend to go up in a recession.

That does not matter if you just do not save money. Google 'how much
money does the average American have in savings accounts'. Young
people who are more interested in sex and companionship, and people
who have children or parents or a lifestyle to support don't tend to
save money. This is over 90% of the adult population.

"The saving rate, although continuing to edge down, remains well above levels that prevailed prior to the recession (figure 8).

Martin L

···

On 7/15/2011 6:28 AM, Shannon Williams wrote:

It is sad that double
taxation incentivises keeping that money instead of distributing it to share

Hey, do you agree that the taxed money ends up flowing through the
economy? Just checking.

Shannon Williams
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 15 1332 MDT]

[Shannon Williams (2011.07.15.930 CST)]

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 15 0701 MDT]

"The saving rate, although continuing to edge down, remains well above
levels that prevailed prior to the recession (figure 8).
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20110713_mprfullreport.pdf

That chart shows 6-8% change in total savings. It does not say what
percentage of the population contributes to that number. For years
various magazines and news articles have lamented that Americans do
not save. I am just saying that if you stop 10 people at Macdonalds
or Walmart (I am picking places where EVERYONE goes), nine of them
will not have any money in savings (Or they have so little that they
have to pay for their checking accounts at the bank- if they even have
checking accounts). Also, if you hand them $500, they will thank you
profusely and spend it immediately. Based on the lottery winners'
track records, you can give them a couple million dollars and they
will spend that immediately too.

The debt financed stimulus packages have often been discovered to have been deflationary because even the miniscule amounts went to pay down debt or to savings, so there is reason to believe the poor and middle class do save some when politicians see the need for stimulus. I don't find good data on the distribution of savings, but this report on savings and frugality seems to indicate that the rich have returned to spending:

http://classic.cnbc.com/id/36941740/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/?ns=business-stocks_and_economy

-- Martin L

···

On 7/15/2011 8:24 AM, Shannon Williams wrote:

On 7/15/2011 6:28 AM, Shannon Williams wrote:

Shannon Williams
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

[Shannon Williams (2011.07.15.1600 CST)]

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 15 1332 MDT]

�I don't find good data on
the distribution of savings, but this report on savings and frugality seems
to indicate that the rich have returned to spending:

http://classic.cnbc.com/id/36941740/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/?ns=business-stocks_and_economy

Interesting. They interviewed 24 'Ordinary Americans'. They tell us
about three of them: Marjorie Feldman - a sixty-five year old retired
systems analyst whose husband works in Academia, Susan Wilson, 55- a
freelance PR specialist, Keith Flowers who works at an Information
techonology company and bought his house for $270,000. The last two
learned not to go into debt, the first one is retired and scared. As
far as saying the 'rich' are spending. If you can afford a $200,000
car and you buy one, then you are definitely spending. But if you
could afford to buy 10 of them and you only bought one, then you are
not spending very much. Every little bit helps though as long as
whoever you bought it from is now going to spend too.

Shannon Williams
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

(Gavin Ritz 2011.07.16.12.31NZT)
[Shannon Williams (2011.07.15.700 CST)]

(Gavin Ritz 2011.07.15.17.13NZT)

Your statement is equivalent to saying that there would be no economy
if everyone were rich.

I don’t understand how you can say this; even the rich borrow money, that’s
how we make money by leverage.

You said ‘In any economy’, but you are not thinking of any economy.
You are thinking of the one you live in now.
GR: That’s true, but this one is the only one we have and its been developing for 100’s of years

I described an economy
(without hoping for it) where every item in the economy is within the
means of every person. This would equate to an economy where either
there are no big structures (like skyscrapers and malls) or these
things have already been built by the generations before.

GR: what’'s the point of that, unless you have designs to totally destroy the one we have and replace it with one in your image.
I then said
all of the people in the economy are rich. I then described what
activity the economy would consist of and what would be required to
the economy flowing.

I am just saying that the economy
is not constrained by physical laws
to operate the way that it operates today.
GR: actually it is constrained by physical laws in every single sense it’s when individuals think they can bend those laws to their own ends that the system breaks. The concept of exchange is as old as the universe, when people think they can mess with the accountability structures of nature (and those created by man for equitable exchange) we run into problems.

It’s not the money that matters it’s the game of making it and what one
can
do with it. As I have said before it’s an energetic game, internal
concentration external accumulation.

GR: the whole of nature including man’s creations are subject to the same laws. There is only some much energy that can be transformed at only so much efficiency. That’s the 1st 2nd and 3rd laws of thermodynamics. As a non equilibrium entity you can only convert/transduce some much light, sound, gases, and even your thinking is limited.

Yes. These are your controlled variables. they are not related to
the distribution of goods and services.

GR: How do you know these are my controlled variables.

I propose that these
variables be satisfied on the gridiron or in the research lab or
somewhere else besides in our blood/water supply.
GR: can you state specifically your proposition so I can see if it can be verified with evidence and some tests.

OK. I agree that accumulation of resources is stopping the flow of

the economy. But it does not need to pop the system

It always does, it’s called a bubble and it always bursts,

Yep. If we keep doing the same things we will keep getting the same results.
GR: yip keep breaking the physical laws. Anybody does this rich and the not so rich.

GR:

(Gavin Ritz 2011.07.12.56NZT)
[From Rick Marken (2011.07.15.1010)]

Gavin Ritz 2011.07.15.17.38NZT)

The very basis of money
is debt creation; there is no other way money is created in our modern economic
system.

Debt creation is indeed the way new money is created. But I would not say debt creation is the basis. I would say that the basis of money is that is is a claim on goods and services. Adam Smith gives a good description of what money is and how it probably came about. And debt creation was not a big part of it.

GR: that’s true it was the Italians that created this system some 400 years ago.

Indeed, money probably started well before people saw the possibilities of using it for “futures” purchases (which is where debt creation comes in; central banks loan money – create debt for the borrower – based on the promise of future returns based on the borrower’s ability to produce goods and/or services that will allow payback of the debt). The money itself is, therefore, always a claim on existing or
future goods and services.

GR: Well it was the exchange of the gods named after Moneta the word for coin.

Because money, unlike many goods and services, can be stored for long periods of time without deteriorating (physically; it can lose “value” through inflation, of course) it can be saved for future use.

GR: not if you lived in Europe pre 1939 when the entire system was on the gold standard and totally inflated.

This is one of the many nice features of money (as compared to barter) but it also has a downside, which is that money can be more comfortably hoarded than the goods and services it represents. Hoarding is just excessive saving; what is “excessive” is something that I imagine models of the economy could answer (those models could also answer the question of what is “too much” income inequality).

GR: In NZ I think that the notes and coins in circulation make up only 1-2% of the money in the entire system. I guess it would be similar in the USA. So modern money is balances in bank accounts. When modern business pay other businesses by transactions they dont go to the bank draw out cash and pay their creditor they just transfer funds from their account to other accounts, no actual notes and coins are transacted.

Hoarding takes money out of the circular flow of the economy ( see http://www.mindreadings.com/HMod.pdf) and brings actual production below what an economy is capable of producing.
GR: this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, how can the money be hoarded when it is a balance in the bank account and the bank uses that to lend to other institutions and individuals… Which part is the hoarding part?

This results in un- (or under-) employment, which sucks. So if your idea of a healthy economy is one where everyone is able to make enough to support themselves and their families – that is, one where everyone is in control of their lives – then the main enemy of this nice result is hoarding (what T.C. Powers calls "leakage"in his book of the same name and what E.
Ray Canterbery calls “the angel’s share” in “Wall Street Capitalism”).

GR: i don’t get this hoarding argument.
Regards
Gavin

Best regards

Rick

···


Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

[Shannon Williams (2011.07.16.930 CST)]

(Gavin Ritz 2011.07.16.12.31NZT)

You said 'In any economy', but you are not thinking of any economy.
You are thinking of the one you live in now.
GR: That's true, but this one is the only one we have and its been
developing for 100's of years

Yes. But the discussion is about modeling economy. Not just modeling
the current methods used to stimulate/maintain the economy.

I described an economy
(without hoping for it) where every item in the economy is within the
means of every person. This would equate to an economy where either
there are no big structures (like skyscrapers and malls) or these
things have already been built by the generations before.

GR: what''s the point of that, unless you have designs to totally destroy
the one we have and replace it with one in your image.

I have plans to model the economy. A basic model of the economy can
be used to understand the current economy and any other possible
economy. If what you have can't do that , then it is not a model.

I am just saying that the economy is not constrained by physical laws
to operate the way that it operates today.

GR: actually it is� constrained by physical laws

Please read the whole sentence above that I wrote. Do you see what I am saying?

Shannon
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

[From Rick Marken (2011.07.16.0830)]

Gavin Ritz 2011.07.12.56NZT)–

Hoarding takes money out of the circular flow of the economy ( see http://www.mindreadings.com/HMod.pdf) and brings actual production below what an economy is capable of producing.

GR: this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, how can the money be hoarded when it is a balance in the bank account and the bank uses that to lend to other institutions and individuals… Which part is the hoarding part?

Good point. My answer is based on what I know of the US banking system. I can think of two main ways that hoarding takes money out of circulation:

  1. The Fed requires that banks with more than $58,000,000 in liabilities (deposits) maintain a cash reserve equal to 10% of those liabilities. So the more money hoarded in banks, the more money held in reserve. That reserve money is just sitting there; it’s potential demand (it would go right back into the circular flow if it were in the hands of consumers) that is just being held as insurance against withdrawals (which is good but there would be far less money being held in reserve if there weren’t so much being hoarded into banks).

  2. Banks do want to loan out all the money they can but when demand is low (for goods and services because most people don’t have enough money) there is not much demand for loans for investment in businesses that will produce goods and services for which there is little or no demand. But having the money loaned is better than having it sitting around so the banks will lower their rates so that all the money gets loaned out. And it does get loaned out. The problem is that many of those loans turn bad due to bankruptcies (for commercial loans) and defaults (for mortgages). In those cases money is simply lost; it disappears.

Based on this, I would estimate that ~20 % of the savings kept on deposit in banks is kept out of the circular flow of money (from producers to consumers, as wages and profit, and from consumers back to producers, as purchases of goods and services). 10% is just held in reserve and probably another 10% is just lost to bankruptcies and mortgage defaults. When there is great wealth disparity, so that a large portion of GDP is being hoarded in savings, the 20% loss from the circular flow is a much greater proportion of GDP than when wealth disparity is low, and far less money is hoarded.

Best

Rick

···


Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 17 0442 MDT]

[From Bill Powers (2011.07.16.1820 MDT)]

  Martin Lewitt 2011 July 1744 MDT --
      BP earlier: You're

both making
it too complicated. What takes money out of circulation is * not
spending
it* . The form of the money or where it is stashed makes
no
difference. The money has to get to the people who need
things, and it
tends to stop moving when it reaches people who already have
more than
they need.

    ML: The velocity of the money supply does slow during a

recession.
But what you are ignoring is that nearly everyone in the US has
more than
they need, so can cut back on their spending in times of
uncertainty.

  BP: No, they don't have more than they need. (One flat declaration

of a
fact without proof deserves another). Who are you to decide what
they
need?

EXACTLY!!  Take that to heart, and you too will be a libertarian.

-- Martin L
···

On 7/16/2011 7:11 PM, Bill Powers wrote:

      BP earlier: That's

how people
can get rich: they don’t have to spend all they receive, so
their bank
accounts, sugar canisters, mattresses, or other storage
methods where
burglars look first just keep getting fatter. The money is not
paid out
again as income for the people who do need the money more
urgently.

    ML: No, how they get rich has little to do with money, and more

to do
with public or private ownership of productive enterprises.
They would often take a huge paper loss, if they tried to
liquidate them
too quickly.

  BP: Nonsense (this is fun -- no facts or proofs needed: just

express
yourself in a very positive and emphatic manner). Being rich means
having
a lot of disposable income that you can spend any way you want to.
How
you are getting it is irrelevant.

    ML: The smart ones

who have
liquidated their assets, often do so in order to diversify or
seek higher
returns in hedge or venture capital funds. The ones that do let
their funds lay around getting poor returns in a bank, may be
slowing the
velocity of money during recessions, when the banks have
difficulty
finding people willing to borrow. But this doesn’t create a
lack of
money, because the Fed can just print more. But it is tough to
get
activity going once is has slowed down, but I think that can be
remedied
by a better way of printing money.

  BP: Hogwash. Show me a model that behaves that way and I might

believe
it. I’m not going to believe it just because you say it’s true.

      BP earlier: The

idea that the
rich can invest the money and thereby benefit the economy is
just a
Wall-Street myth.

    ML: Sounds like you wouldn't know how to benefit the economy if

you were
rich.

  BP: Yes, I do. I would spend my surplus income by buying things

and
paying people for their services. If all rich people did that
instead of
trying endlessly to get richer, the economy would pick right up.
Why?
Because I say it would.

      BP earlier: This

paradox is
mentioned occasionally, and the solution is always basically
“and
then a miracle occurs.” If you invest money in production
rather
than spending it to put it into the hands of consumers, with
what are the
consumers going to buy the increased production? They aren’t
making any
more money than they were before; how can they suddenly start
buying
more? Even if you start paying them for producing the added
goods and
services, they won’t get paid until the end of the day, week,
or month –
if the producer has enough left over to pay them without any
increase in
sales. Credit is one answer, but we’ve seen where that gets
us. People
who don’t have enough money now to support a mortgage on a
nicer house
shouldn’t commit to buying a nicer house. That bubble is
doomed to
collapse. It collapses every time, and not because there’s
some
mysterious “cycle.” The cycle is a consequence, not a
cause.

    ML: Yes, many think the cycle is a consequence of Fed

mismanagement.

  BP: And more don't think so. It's really a consequence of free

people
abusing their freedom by taking advantage of other people with
less power
or education, and thereby risking the freedom of all of us.

  I notice that you didn't have any answer for the paradox of people

spending money that went into investments instead of wages or
other
consumer income.

      BP earlier: Of

course people who
are driven to become continually richer as fast as possible
get richer
faster than those who just let it happen, but people who have
peace of
mind and more income than they need will also get richer
unless they
positively decide not to. I would guess that the majority of
rich people
fall in the latter category, though the ones with the greatest
money
obsession will naturally end up with most of the money unless
someone
else interferes or they see a shrink.

    ML: There is something about being motivated that aids success

in most
endeavors.

  BP: Of course. When there isn't anything you wouldn't do to get to

the
top, you’re not going to hestitate when you see an opening, no
matter
whom you have to hurt. People who have moral scruples or sympathy
for
underdogs and sentimental stuff like that work at a disadvantage.
That’s
why they get together and try to crack down on the ones who
threaten to
spoil the system. And my, how the spoilers weep and moan and
protest when
not allowed to do exactly as they please. It’s heartwarming.

      BP earlier: What

drives the
economy is not money, it’s people’s needs and desires for
goods and
services.

    ML: That is the reason they will work, if they pull back to just

appreciating family and freinds in a time of crisis, they may
not spend
as much and even want to work less, Unfortunately if a lot of
this
is correlated, less workers are needed, and that decreases
demand
involuntarily for some.

  BP: How did you reach that conclusion? I don't see any

justification for
it. Tou’re assuming that if all these unemployed people would just
go out
and hustle for a job, they could get one. So the lack of
employment is
their fault.

      BP earlier: That's

where any
model of an economy has to start. In Bill Williams’ model of
the Giffen
Effect (which is no longer a “Paradox”), a person has two
needs: one is the need for calories, the other is any other
need, want,
or preference that can also be supplied by purchasing the
items that
provide calories. Prestige is the other desired ingredient of
food that
BW used. You could use vitamin content, taste, packaging, or
anything
else less important than getting enough to eat. But it is the
need for
calories that takes precedence over any mere preference. Those
who do not
follow that priority will not be around to participate for
much longer.
This is true of every human being, so we can rely on this fact
in
building a model.

    ML: Yes, a model of a

third
world economy.

  BP: No, a model of any economy in which similar considerations

exist.
Don’t take “calories” too literally. Bill Williams had many
other examples, such as one in which jet-setters would be forced
to
travel by commercial airlines to special gatherings instead of
private
jets if the cost of commercial flights increased. All that’s
required is
that their budgets not be quite high enough to let them use
private jets
for everything.

      BP earlier: Because

of the
absolute requirement for a minimum intake of calories, when
the price of
unprestigious bread goes up and the budget is limited one is
forced to
buy less meat and substitute more bread in order to get the
required
calories without running out of money. The only alternative is
to starve.
The control-system model shows the shift happening quite
automatically,
every time, and it’s perfectly obvious why it happens.
It’s an
amentic phenomenon – a no-brainer. Once, that is, you have
understood
how negative feedback control works.

    Substitution of goods is a no-brainer, pretty standard

micro-economics.

  You don't seem to understand the Giffen Effect. It requires you to

substitute something that costs you more for for something else
that
would provide the same benefit and that you would prefer to have
for
other reasons. Standard price theory is much too simple-minded to
handle
the Giffen Effect, which is why so many economists have loudly
insisted
that it just doesn’t happen. Substitution theory assumes an
unlimited
budget to begin with, and also that one good has only one scale
for
determining value, which allows different goods to be compared as
to
value. If each good simultaneously satifies several different
kinds of
reference levels at the same time, you have to solve a large
system of
simultaneous equations to find out what the result will be. Bill
Williams
showed how this works in a simplified situation that we can
understand.
Apparently he didn’t simplify it enough. However, he did leave
behind a
model that shows how this works and with a bit of study anyone
capable of
going to college can understand it.

  Economists don't like to think about budgetary limits. Life is a

lot
simpler if everything people do is a free choice, so they can
spend more
or less just because that’s what they want to do. But that’s not
the
universe we live in.

  Best,



  Bill P.

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 17 0442 MDT]

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 17 0442 MDT]

[From Bill Powers (2011.07.16.1820 MDT)]

    Martin Lewitt 2011 July 1744 MDT --
        BP earlier:

You’re both making it too complicated. What takes money out
of circulation is * not
spending it* . The form of the money or where it is
stashed makes no difference. The money has to get to the
people who need things, and it tends to stop moving when it
reaches people who already have more than they need.

      ML: The velocity of the money supply does slow during a

recession. But what you are ignoring is that nearly everyone
in the US has more than they need, so can cut back on their
spending in times of uncertainty.

    BP: No, they don't have more than they need. (One flat

declaration of a fact without proof deserves another). Who are
you to decide what they need?

  EXACTLY!!  Take that to heart, and you too will be a libertarian.
Discussion)  If the "who are YOU to decide what THEY need" (emphasis

mine), is generalizable, you have yielded to the libertarian ethic.
In addition by taking a contrarian position on what people “need”,
you are suggesting that “need” like other values is subjective, as
assumed by the Austrian and Chicago schools of economics. And you
do this while at the same time hoping to get away with arguing that
provision of healthcare is somehow a basic need, if not for the
recipient, at least for the rest of us to be considered
compassionate and not cold and heartless. I don’t see a need
however to yield all objective meaning of words. “Need” does have
generally accepted meaning. A vibrantly reproducing third world
lives on about a quarter of our poor neighbor Mexico’s per capita
production. A US population enduring a recession reigns in
consumption, suggesting their “needs” were less than they previously
consumed.

-- Martin L
···

On 7/17/2011 4:44 AM, Martin Lewitt wrote:

  On 7/16/2011 7:11 PM, Bill Powers wrote:
  -- Martin L
        BP earlier:

That’s how people can get rich: they don’t have to spend all
they receive, so their bank accounts, sugar canisters,
mattresses, or other storage methods where burglars look
first just keep getting fatter. The money is not paid out
again as income for the people who do need the money more
urgently.

      ML: No, how they get rich has little to do with money, and

more to do with public or private ownership of productive
enterprises. They would often take a huge paper loss, if they
tried to liquidate them too quickly.

    BP: Nonsense (this is fun -- no facts or proofs needed: just

express yourself in a very positive and emphatic manner). Being
rich means having a lot of disposable income that you can spend
any way you want to. How you are getting it is irrelevant.

      ML: The smart ones

who have liquidated their assets, often do so in order to
diversify or seek higher returns in hedge or venture capital
funds. The ones that do let their funds lay around getting
poor returns in a bank, may be slowing the velocity of money
during recessions, when the banks have difficulty finding
people willing to borrow. But this doesn’t create a lack of
money, because the Fed can just print more. But it is tough
to get activity going once is has slowed down, but I think
that can be remedied by a better way of printing money.

    BP: Hogwash. Show me a model that behaves that way and I might

believe it. I’m not going to believe it just because you say
it’s true.

        BP earlier: The

idea that the rich can invest the money and thereby benefit
the economy is just a Wall-Street myth.

      ML: Sounds like you wouldn't know how to benefit the economy

if you were rich.

    BP: Yes, I do. I would spend my surplus income by buying things

and paying people for their services. If all rich people did
that instead of trying endlessly to get richer, the economy
would pick right up. Why? Because I say it would.

        BP earlier: This

paradox is mentioned occasionally, and the solution is
always basically “and then a miracle occurs.” If you invest
money in production rather than spending it to put it into
the hands of consumers, with what are the consumers going to
buy the increased production? They aren’t making any more
money than they were before; how can they suddenly start
buying more? Even if you start paying them for producing the
added goods and services, they won’t get paid until the end
of the day, week, or month – if the producer has enough
left over to pay them without any increase in sales. Credit
is one answer, but we’ve seen where that gets us. People who
don’t have enough money now to support a mortgage on a nicer
house shouldn’t commit to buying a nicer house. That bubble
is doomed to collapse. It collapses every time, and not
because there’s some mysterious “cycle.” The cycle is a
consequence, not a cause.

      ML: Yes, many think the cycle is a consequence of Fed

mismanagement.

    BP: And more don't think so. It's really a consequence of free

people abusing their freedom by taking advantage of other people
with less power or education, and thereby risking the freedom of
all of us.

    I notice that you didn't have any answer for the paradox of

people spending money that went into investments instead of
wages or other consumer income.

        BP earlier: Of

course people who are driven to become continually richer as
fast as possible get richer faster than those who just let
it happen, but people who have peace of mind and more income
than they need will also get richer unless they positively
decide not to. I would guess that the majority of rich
people fall in the latter category, though the ones with the
greatest money obsession will naturally end up with most of
the money unless someone else interferes or they see a
shrink.

      ML: There is something about being motivated that aids success

in most endeavors.

    BP: Of course. When there isn't anything you wouldn't do to get

to the top, you’re not going to hestitate when you see an
opening, no matter whom you have to hurt. People who have moral
scruples or sympathy for underdogs and sentimental stuff like
that work at a disadvantage. That’s why they get together and
try to crack down on the ones who threaten to spoil the system.
And my, how the spoilers weep and moan and protest when not
allowed to do exactly as they please. It’s heartwarming.

        BP earlier: What

drives the economy is not money, it’s people’s needs and
desires for goods and services.

      ML: That is the reason they will work, if they pull back to

just appreciating family and freinds in a time of crisis, they
may not spend as much and even want to work less,
Unfortunately if a lot of this is correlated, less workers are
needed, and that decreases demand involuntarily for some.

    BP: How did you reach that conclusion? I don't see any

justification for it. Tou’re assuming that if all these
unemployed people would just go out and hustle for a job, they
could get one. So the lack of employment is their fault.

        BP earlier:

That’s where any model of an economy has to start. In Bill
Williams’ model of the Giffen Effect (which is no longer a
“Paradox”), a person has two needs: one is the need for
calories, the other is any other need, want, or preference
that can also be supplied by purchasing the items that
provide calories. Prestige is the other desired ingredient
of food that BW used. You could use vitamin content, taste,
packaging, or anything else less important than getting
enough to eat. But it is the need for calories that takes
precedence over any mere preference. Those who do not follow
that priority will not be around to participate for much
longer. This is true of every human being, so we can rely on
this fact in building a model.

      ML: Yes, a model of

a third world economy.

    BP: No, a model of any economy in which similar considerations

exist. Don’t take “calories” too literally. Bill Williams had
many other examples, such as one in which jet-setters would be
forced to travel by commercial airlines to special gatherings
instead of private jets if the cost of commercial flights
increased. All that’s required is that their budgets not be
quite high enough to let them use private jets for everything.

        BP earlier:

Because of the absolute requirement for a minimum intake of
calories, when the price of unprestigious bread goes up and
the budget is limited one is forced to buy less meat and
substitute more bread in order to get the required calories
without running out of money. The only alternative is to
starve. The control-system model shows the shift happening
quite automatically, every time, and it’s perfectly obvious
why it happens. It’s an amentic phenomenon – a
no-brainer. Once, that is, you have understood how negative
feedback control works.

      Substitution of goods is a no-brainer, pretty standard

micro-economics.

    You don't seem to understand the Giffen Effect. It requires you

to substitute something that costs you more for for something
else that would provide the same benefit and that you would
prefer to have for other reasons. Standard price theory is much
too simple-minded to handle the Giffen Effect, which is why so
many economists have loudly insisted that it just doesn’t
happen. Substitution theory assumes an unlimited budget to begin
with, and also that one good has only one scale for determining
value, which allows different goods to be compared as to value.
If each good simultaneously satifies several different kinds of
reference levels at the same time, you have to solve a large
system of simultaneous equations to find out what the result
will be. Bill Williams showed how this works in a simplified
situation that we can understand. Apparently he didn’t simplify
it enough. However, he did leave behind a model that shows how
this works and with a bit of study anyone capable of going to
college can understand it.

    Economists don't like to think about budgetary limits. Life is a

lot simpler if everything people do is a free choice, so they
can spend more or less just because that’s what they want to do.
But that’s not the universe we live in.

    Best,



    Bill P.

[Martin Lewitt 2011 July 17 1058 MDT]

[From Rick Marken (2011.07.17.0950)]

Bill Powers (2011.07.16.1010 MDT)--

Rick Marken (2011.07.16.0830) --
GR: this doesn't make a lot of sense to me, how can the money be hoarded
when it is a balance in the bank account and the bank uses that to lend to
other institutions and individuals.. Which part is the hoarding part?

RM:: Good point. My answer is based on what I know of the US banking system.
I can think of two main ways that hoarding takes money out of circulation:

BP: You're both making it too complicated. What takes money out of
circulation is not spending it. The form of the money or where it is stashed
makes no difference. The money has to get to the people who need things, and
it tends to stop moving when it reaches people who already have more than
they need.

Later in your post you say that everything your are saying here is
based on elementary control theory. Is this? How do you know that the
circulation of money stops at people who have more than they need?
Many people assume that the rich put their money in banks which then
lend it out, which puts the money the rich don't use for consumption
into the hands of other (possibly also rich people) who will use it
for consumption. So it seems that money doesn't really ever leave the
circular flow. I suggested two rather plausible ways money does come
out of the circular flow, reserve requirements and bankruptcies
/defaults. Both of these would lead to "leakage" proportional to the
income inequality.

Among the REALLY RICH are governments. China, Russia and the middle east oil exporting countries are known to be sitting on huge reserves, the only work they generally put them to, is US Treasuries, it seems they should be a part of this leakage?

-- Martin L

···

On 7/17/2011 10:50 AM, Richard Marken wrote:

BP:The idea that the rich can invest the money and thereby benefit the economy
is just a Wall-Street myth. This paradox is mentioned occasionally, and the
solution is always basically "and then a miracle occurs." If you invest
money in production rather than spending it to put it into the hands of
consumers, with what are the consumers going to buy the increased
production?

Being a "closed loop" economist I am always aware of this. And there
are some "real" economists out there -- Robert Reich for one -- who
understand this as well. But even economists who know that there is a
"demand problem" in our current economy ( there is an editorial in the
NY Times that recognizes the problem:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/17/sunday-review/17economic.html?_r=1)
don't quite get that this results from the fact that a small
proportion of people are keeping a larger and larger proportion of the
fruits of production, depriving the vast majority of the means of
purchasing all of what they have produced.

BP: What drives the economy is not money, it's people's needs and desires for
goods and services. That's where any model of an economy has to start.

Yes, and it's where my model of the economy starts. I do it at the
aggregate level, assuming that the aggregate "controller" (H.
economicus) has a virtual reference for consuming the goods and
services it produces for itself.

BP: I hope that the conviction is growing in more breasts than mine and
Shannon's that we really need a model, and that nothing anyone says about
relationships in an economy is going to be of the slightest use without one.

I have already built a model of the economy. It needs work but it is
a working control model of the economy.

I believe that a model tells you something about the relationships in
an economy only if it has been validated against data. So just having
a model is not of much interest. When I get back to it, my model will
be aimed at predicting variations in economic variables that have been
observed.

BP: What you think you know about the economy ain't so. Face it. Everything I am
saying here comes out of elementary control theory. Why not start using it?

Not everything you said here comes out of elementary control theory.
And I have already started using it as a basis for modeling the
economy. You didn't like my model very much but that doesn't mean that
it's not a model or that it wasn't based on control theory. When I
eventually get back to the modeling (I quit because no one seemed to
like it much and I realized that no matter how great the model is it's
not going to change the minds of ideologues anyway. Economics is
really just politics; I believe there can be a science of economics
but it will have no more influence on economic policy than, say,
climate science has on energy policy) I will make it more detailed and
I will test it by seeing how well I can get it match the economic
data.

Best

Rick
---
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

[from Tracy B. Harms (2011-07-17 15:52 Eastern)]

This post caught my eye when it originally appeared, in large part because it seems I count as “libertarian” for purposes of this inquiry. I’ve read some, but by no means all, the resulting thread, but not until today.

I’ve held back from getting involved with this because of the emotional discomforts involved. But avoidance-due-to-aversion is, in a circuitous way, related to Rick’s topic, and to other things we tend to care about in this forum.

The prominent thing for me is how my radical socio-political inclinations led me through studies in many areas, and how psychology was an area that was important from many angles. What’s going on with this thing known as authority? What’s going on with this thing known as dissent? There were many questions that brought psychology into play.

To make a long story short, as I pursued my interest in the politics of autonomy I became inspired into a much greater interest in the implications of autonomy on personal relationships. So, while I have various opinions on distinctively political topics, a very high regard for Austrian economic theory, and preferences among expressions of social hopes and frustrations, those things have faded into the background. The foreground of my attention, these days, is on my attitudes in my personal experience. I put particular attention toward awareness of my own emotional states and changes, empathetic listening, and suspending judgement.

So, while I could engage in this discussion in any of a number of ways, the only one that’s appealed to me so far enough to actually post is, well, what I’m writing here.

One of my main political opinions is that the hard problems are conflicts that arise with the idea of authority, and that this idea is delusional in comparison with the idea of autonomy. (I suspect autonomy is a delusional idea, too, but first things first. At least autonomy has a clear meaning in a context of PCT, while authority is much messier and more derivative.) Choices among policy options, candidates, or even political systems strike me as unimportant in contrast with choices among attitudes in my own mind, especially choices that affect how accessible I am to the people who encounter me.

–Tracy

P.S. I suppose you’d appreciate at least some attention to your initial questions, Rick, so here are my answers: No. Unsure. No. N/A.

···

On Sun, Jul 3, 2011 at 3:33 PM, Richard Marken rsmarken@gmail.com wrote:

[From Rick Marken (2011.07.03.1230)

Is money speech?

Should political contributions be regulated?

Does the free market apply to elections?

if so, doesn’t that mean that the USA must have the best government in

the world since there are no restrictions on what can be spent on

elections?

Best

Rick

Richard S. Marken PhD

rsmarken@gmail.com

www.mindreadings.com

(Gavin Ritz 2011.07.18.10.51NZT)

[From
Rick Marken (2011.07.16.0830)]

Gavin Ritz 2011.07.12.56NZT)–

Hoarding
takes money out of the circular flow of the economy ( see http://www.mindreadings.com/HMod.pdf)
and brings actual production below what an economy is capable of producing.

GR: this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, how
can the money be hoarded when it is a balance in the bank account and the bank
uses that to lend to other institutions and individuals… Which part is the
hoarding part?

Good point. My answer is based on what I know of the US banking system. I can
think of two main ways that hoarding takes money out of circulation:

  1. The Fed requires that banks with more than $58,000,000 in liabilities
    (deposits) maintain a cash reserve equal to 10% of those liabilities. So the
    more money hoarded in banks, the more money held in reserve. That reserve money
    is just sitting there; it’s potential demand (it would go right back into the
    circular flow if it were in the hands of consumers) that is just being held as
    insurance against withdrawals (which is good but there would be far less money
    being held in reserve if there weren’t so much being hoarded into banks).

I don’t see how this is hoarding or
what this even means in your argument. In NZ the banks just square off every
night deposits must equal withdrawals, plus all the other insurance
requirements.

  1. Banks do want to loan out all the money they can but when demand is low (for
    goods and services because most people don’t have enough money) there is not
    much demand for loans for investment in businesses that will produce goods and
    services for which there is little or no demand. But having the money loaned is
    better than having it sitting around so the banks will lower their rates so
    that all the money gets loaned out. And it does get loaned out. The problem is
    that many of those loans turn bad due to bankruptcies (for commercial loans)
    and defaults (for mortgages). In those cases money is simply lost; it
    disappears.

Okay that’s not hoarding though that’s
just simple losses. I still don’t see how this is related to your
hoarding proposition.

Based on this, I would estimate that ~20 % of the savings kept on deposit in
banks is kept out of the circular flow of money (from producers to consumers,
as wages and profit, and from consumers back to producers, as purchases of
goods and services). 10% is just held in reserve and probably another 10% is
just lost to bankruptcies and mortgage defaults. When there is great wealth
disparity, so that a large portion of GDP is being hoarded in savings, the 20%
loss from the circular flow is a much greater proportion of GDP than when
wealth disparity is low, and far less money is hoarded.

I’m lost I don’t see how this
is related to the hoarding argument.

Modern money is just a balance in a bank
account there’s no actual real money attached to it. I think notes and
coins in NZ make up 2% of money in the economy. Funds balances are just like
reservoirs of water, unless you are saying storage is hoarding.

I just don’t get the proposition.

Regards

Gavin

Best

Rick

···


Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

(Gavin Ritz 2011.18.07.11.02NZT)

[From Bill Powers
(2011.07.16.1010 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2011.07.16.0830) –

Gavin
Ritz 2011.07.12.56NZT)–

RM:
Hoarding takes money out of the circular flow of the economy ( see http://www.mindreadings.com/HMod.pdf)
and brings actual production below what an economy is capable of producing.

GR:
this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, how can the money be hoarded when it is
a balance in the bank account and the bank uses that to lend to other
institutions and individuals… Which part is the hoarding part?

RM:: Good point. My answer is based on what I know of the US
banking system. I can think of two main ways that hoarding takes money out of
circulation:

BP: You’re both making it too complicated. What takes money out of circulation
is not spending it. The form of
the money or where it is stashed makes no difference.

I’m not making any propositions Rick is. I just don’t understand
the argument. It makes no sense to me. The form of money is very important in a
modern economy. In NZ only 2% of notes makes up the money supply, the rest are
balances in bank account. We are well past the days of cold hard cash when that
was required as balances. Balances in banks and saving institutions are used
for investments, with some cash holding requirements.

The money has to get to
the people who need things, and it tends to stop moving when it reaches people
who already have more than they need.

How can you back up this proposition, I don’t
believe this is in any way true.

That’s how people can get rich: they don’t have to spend all they receive, so
their bank accounts, sugar canisters, mattresses, or other storage methods
where burglars look first just keep getting fatter. The money is not paid out
again as income for the people who do need the money more urgently.

This is plainly not true at all. I didn’t
get rich like this. One buys and sells high value assets with leverage in some
cases. Develops IP, or sells a business. It not that often the real money comes
from just trading. The trading gives one the ability to get loans to buy high
value assets like property and move them years later at a big gain.

Cash flow is often a big problem from rich
and the not so rich. What I keep getting is the perspective qualitative aspect of
money is very skewed, in these arguments. It sort of feels like 1920’s
trade union notions.

Anyone can get rich the just have to select
that option.

What drives the economy is not money, it’s people’s needs and desires for goods
and services.

There is no such thing as needs and
desires.

That’s where any model of
an economy has to start. In Bill Williams’ model of the Giffen
Effect (which is no longer a “Paradox”), a person has two needs: one
is the need for calories, the other is any other need, want, or preference that
can also be supplied by purchasing the items that provide calories. Prestige is
the other desired ingredient of food that BW used. You could use vitamin
content, taste, packaging, or anything else less important than getting enough
to eat. But it is the need for calories that takes precedence over any mere
preference. Those who do not follow that priority will not be around to
participate for much longer. This is true of every human being, so we can rely
on this fact in building a model.

Hence us discussing how the environment looks
with two interacting control systems. I don’t think we have had any definitive
agreement on how this looks.

Because of the absolute requirement for a minimum intake of calories,

I’ve always said it’s an energetic
balance, looks like you agree.

Regards

Gavin

[From Shannon Williams (2011.07.18.0700)]

[From Rick Marken (2011.07.17.0950)]

How do you know that the
circulation of money stops at people who have more than they need?
Many people assume that the rich put their money in banks which then
lend it out, which puts the money the rich don't use for consumption
into the hands of other (possibly also rich people) who will use it
for consumption.

I suggest Rick that for you to see how savings accounts prevent money
circulating around society (although it does ensure that you have a
steady supply) then you must start by considering several
contradictions. You will need to take into account that you and some
stranger do not have simultaneous, unconstrained access to your
savings accounts. You will need to focus on the constraints placed on
the stranger. As you evaluate the constraints placed on the stranger
you will need to separate yourself from the feelings of comfort,
security, etc that your own savings accounts provide to you.

So let's begin by looking at scenarios. I list three scenarios. In
these scenarios, focus on the movement of money. If the thought
enters your head that Rick 'could' pay Bill if he wanted, or that Rick
could take a cheaper house or a cheaper car- whatever. Banish that
thought. That thought is an attempt to make the current system work.
What we want to see here is 'what keeps the money flowing'. When does
the money stop flowing. We assume in these scenarios that Bill is
giving or loaning money that he would not otherwise spend.

1. Rick makes just enough money to pay his room and board. His child
gets sick and he does not have insurance. Bill gives him money (free
and clear) to cover the doctor bills. Rick carries on without a
glitch, status quo.

2. Rick makes just enough money to pay his room and board. His child
gets sick and he does not have insurance. Bill loans him money (no
interest) to cover the doctor bills. Months go by and Rick does not
pay Bill back. Bill gets really pissed when Christmas comes and Rick
chooses to buy christmas gifts rather that pay him back.

3. Rick makes just enough money to pay his room and board. His child
gets sick and he does not have insurance. Bill loans him money (no
interest) to cover the doctor bills. Months go by and Rick does not
pay Bill back. At Christmas, Rick pays Bill back.

So what is the money doing in these scenarios?

Thanks,
Shannon
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

[From Rick Marken (2011.07.18.1750)]

Shannon Williams (2011.07.18.0700)–

RM: [To Bill Powers] How do you know that the
circulation of money stops at people who have more than they need?
Many people assume that the rich put their money in banks which then
lend it out, which puts the money the rich don’t use for consumption
into the hands of other (possibly also rich people) who will use it
for consumption.

SW: I suggest Rick that for you to see how savings accounts prevent money
circulating around society (although it does ensure that you have a
steady supply) then you must start by considering several
contradictions…
What we want to see here is ‘what keeps the money flowing’. When does
the money stop flowing. We assume in these scenarios that Bill is
giving or loaning money that he would not otherwise spend…

These scenarios don’t really relate to the “circular flow” of money that I’m talking about. What I am talking about is the flow of money from the aggregate producer to the aggregate consumer to the aggregate producer. As in a control loop, this is not a sequential process. Average over some time interval, like a year, we can see that money is flowing from aggregate producer to aggregate consumer (in the form of wages and profits) at the same that money is flowing from aggregate consumer to aggregate producer (in the form of purchases of the goods and services being produced).

The aggregate producer producer produces goods (including capital equipment) and services and the cost of this production (which we call GNP) is the payment that the aggregate producer pays “itself” (as the aggregate consumer) in the form of wages and profits. The aggregate consumer returns these wages and profits to “itself” (as the aggregate producer) in the form of purchases of the goods and services produced. These wages and profits, when used to purchase goods and services, are demand, D, for the goods and services produced, GNP. Both GNP and D can be measured in dollars. When I talk about money “leaking” out of the circular flow I am referring to GNP that is not being returned to to the aggregate producer as D.

Best

Rick

···


Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

(Gavin Ritz 2011.19.16.51NZT)

{Shannon Williams
(2011.18.0700 CST)]

(Gavin Ritz 2011.18.07.11.02NZT)

Balances in banks and saving

institutions are used for investments, with some
cash holding requirements.

Please look at these three scenarios. In these
scenarios, focus on

the movement of money. If the thought enters
your head that Rick

‘could’ pay Bill if he wanted, or that Rick

could take a cheaper house or a cheaper car-
whatever. Banish that

thought.

The focus here is to look at the money, not look at
what it

takes to get the money back.

Not sure where you got
the idea that I am looking at what it takes to get it back.

Okay here are the flows of
money under a number of scenarios. (dwg below)

It either goes to the
bank or Rick. That’s
of course if we begin here if you begin further back then that adds other scenarios.
If Rick is a drug dealer then it’s
cash it goes to Rick, if not a he’s
street sweeper then it may go into the bank. If Rick
was outside our banking system as a drug dealer he probably wouldn’t have
a cash surplus problem.

Board is a weekly payment
so assume the flows are weekly and the doctor payment is a once off. And if Bill is
paid back that’s a once off too. So timing
of flows is also important, hence the time
value of money and the notion of interest. Besides timing
there is the notion of quality (utility perceived in something) and the relationship
to quantity (amount of money).

There is of course a problem
with your scenarios if Rick
can only cover his cost exactly each and every time
he has no surpluses, and therefore can never do anything but pay board and
rent. So he can’t do the last scenario ever, as he will never get the
funds to do that.

Not so sure what I am supposed
to learn here. Is there something you are trying to show me?

Cash surpluses are the
engine of economic growth.

Attractors.jpg

  1. Rick makes just enough money to pay his room and board. His child

gets sick and he does not have insurance. Bill gives him money (free

and clear) to cover the doctor bills. Rick carries on without a

glitch, status quo.

  1. Rick makes just enough money to pay his room and board. His child

gets sick and he does not have insurance. Bill loans him money (no

interest) to cover the doctor bills. Months go
by and Rick does not

pay Bill back. Bill
gets really pissed when Christmas comes and Rick

chooses to buy christmas gifts rather that pay him
back.

  1. Rick makes just enough money to pay his room and board. His child

gets sick and he does not have insurance. Bill loans him money (no

interest) to cover the doctor bills. Months go
by and Rick does not

pay Bill back. At Christmas, Rick pays Bill back.

So what is the money doing in these scenarios?
Can you draw a diagram

to show the flow?

Thanks,

Shannon

https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways

[Shannon Williams (2011.07.20.1230 CST)]

[From Rick Marken (2011.07.18.1750)]

The aggregate producer producer produces goods (including capital equipment)
and services and the cost of this production (which we call GNP) is the
payment that the aggregate producer pays "itself" (as the aggregate
consumer) in the form of wages and profits. The aggregate consumer returns
these wages and profits to "itself" (as the aggregate producer) in the form

Ok. This model helps you see quit clearly that the money needs to
flow from producer to consumer and back again. In this model you
actually have goods and services flowing one way and money flowing the
other. Just like a current is modeled as electrons moving one way and
holes moving the other.

How do you represent the flow of money without an associated flow of
goods and services such as what occurs in a no-interest loan. (It
actually occurs when you just 'give' money to another consumer, but
since we are talking 'aggregate consumer', that does not matter.) It
appears to me that maybe the model should have two consumers- the
aggregate consumer who deals in the flow of goods and services and
provides the basis of the economy (along with the aggregate producer),
then the money consumer (or loan producer) who is not needed (which is
why it is so hard to model him), but who has come to exist. You can
see by adding this extra consumer, that if his accounts keep growing
then there must be less for the aggregate consumer and aggregate
producer.

Thanks,
Shannon
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/2012/openthespillways