Re-thinking Labov's Pronunciation Drift Data

That was Labov’s phrase so I don’t know know what he meant by it. The only point I was making by quoting Labov was to show that he, like me, believes imitation is the basis of the observed phonemic drift.

I think CI is a good hypothesis about a possible controlled variable, which is a function of the two other variables that happen to be more commonly used in the field.

I also think it’s unlikely that CI is a controlled variable but the actual controlled variable is probably very close to it. Evidence for how close CI is to being the correct definition of a controlled variable would have been the size of the variance of the CI values for each group; the smaller the variance, the more likely it is that CI is a CV, It would have been nice if Labov had reported the variance data.

That’s a nice point about gain (careful pronunciation vs. lax, unstressed pronunciation) being a possible confounding variable. One way to see if it was a confound would be to look at the variance of the CI values in the different groups. If gain, and not CI references, were what is different across groups then an indication of that would be low CI variance in the high gain groups and high CI variance in the low gain groups. And the average CI value in the high gain groups should be nearly the same since they are all keeping the CI value at the “true” reference.

Don’t these questions require longitudinal data – data showing variations in pronunciation over time? I don’t think Labov collected such data. Oh, and I don’t understand the second question. What does it mean for a reversal to be generalized from the environment before a high back vowel to the environment before a high front vowel? What is the evidence that a reversal has been generalized from or to an environment?

My model doesn’t rule out control of “higher level variables” as an explanation of Labov’s results. Indeed, the large pronunciation difference for people with a positive, neutral or negative orientation toward Martha’s Vineyard probably reflects control of a higher level variable that might be called “amount of socializing with people who share your attitude”.

Yes, that’s the way my model currently works, with the higher level controlled variable being “degree of imitation”.

This isn’t a defect of the model unless the other studies that you mention kept track of average pronunciation over long periods of time and found no sudden spontaneous changes. The sudden, spontaneous changes in pronunciation seen in the behavior of the model were a surprise and represent a prediction of the model. Now what is needed is a study of variation in pronunciation over many years. If no spontaneous shifts occur in that time – or if they occur for obvious outside reasons, such as a large change in who people interact with – it would be a count against the model.

I think a group identity exists when each member of a group is controlling for what all agree is essentially the same system concept perception. The people who do it with high gain are the “priests” or “leaders” of the group.

Maybe, maybe not. It is not necessarily inconsistent with it. If the people who express strong resistance to summer people tend to interact with people who feel the same way then my imitation model gets some support. If they don’t, then the model will probably have to be revised somewhat. But I think the model is on the right track. What is needed is the right kind of data to test it.

Labov’s data is a good start and all the data he reports can be accounted for by my imitation model. But to really test the model we need more data; variance measures, frequency of interaction between people in different groups, time variations in pronunciation, and so on. What we don’t need is “seat of the pants” theorizing based on what people deeply steeped in the conventional view of behavior have to say about what the data imply.