[From Rick Marken (960305.0800)]
Stefan Balke (960305.1100 MEZ) --
Isn't this bias [in the reorganization process] a contradiction to the
assumption of a random process?
Yes. If such a bias really exists, and if it's part of the reorganization
process, then we would have to change the reorganization model from random to
biased.
Why is it better to assume a random process instead of a expectancy X value
assumption?
It's not really a matter of "better". There is just very little data on this
matter, other than subjective experience. Until there is some data that
suggests a non-random reorganization process, it seems to me like the most
reasonable assumption is that reorganization is random.
Random reorganization makes sense because (as Hugh Petrie pointed out in a
discussion of the "Meno Paradox") when you are learning to control (without a
teacher helping you) you really have no idea what to do to achieve control.
For example, suppose you are learning to screw in a light bulb (I assume you
already know how to screw in a bed;-)). Let's assume that you already know
that the bulb goes in a socket and that it must be rotated to be screwed in.
The only thing you don't know is the direction in which to rotate the bulb --
clockwise or counterclockwise. So you have to learn how to rotate the bulb in
order to be able to control for it being screwed in.
To learn how to control for screwing in a light bulb, then, you have to try
rotating the bulb. So which direction of rotation do you try first? The PCT
reorganization model says that you basically flip a mental coin; heads you
try clockwise, tails you try counterclockwise.
The notion of random reorganization just says that when there is no basis for
determining what relationship between error and action will work (to give
control); so you select actions (to reduce the error) randomly. But, again,
this is just a _guess_ about how reorganizxation might work. What we need
in ordwer to test this idea is _data_ that shows how people learn the
relationship between error and action when they are learning to control.
P.S.: I can't remember, what did DeNiro want to reach with his date and was
he successful? 
A restored print of "Taxi Driver" has been released here in the US. But I
recommend the videotape if you can get it. Very interesting flick. And, no,
the DeNiro character's dating strategy did not work.
Best
Rick
