[From Dick Robertson,2009.11.09.10.17CDT]
I’ve been trying to think about this situation from the student-subjects’ point of view, guessing what are most likely CVs in this class project.
Start with the 11th level, I would think the self system is controlling a self-image of: “i’m an ambitious student,” plus “I cooperate on class projects,” or something like that. If so, then control of that self image CV(s) would produce a Principle level CV something like, “Do what the instructor is asking me to do,” plus “identify type of task involved,” (something like that). This principle, would then turn up an either/or program like: If CV is amount of bid, then calculate by comparing with past experience with buying novel objects (novel in the sense of not previously bought); or If program is: implement what I think teacher wants, then act according to what teacher has approved of before."
Or something like that.
Now comes an observation that is not explicitly covered in PCT, as far as I know, but not contrary to it either: data in short term memory is associated with other data in short term memory. Thus, if the Subject has just been calculating what is a sensible bid – in the “atmosphere”
of another number (i.e. the two digits taken from Soc Sec. #, then give large or small bid according to associate in memory.
Leaving the other program aside for the time being, how would you disturb the CV {name my bid, going large, or going small} ? Would it do to interrupt the subject - about to write - by saying, “Wait, think if you’ve ever done this sort of thing before.” O K Now go ahead. My rationale here would be that a large or small two-digit number would no longer be the most recent associate for the bid.
Does this incite anybody to exploring Ariely’s findings in PCT terms?
Best,
Dick R
···
----- Original Message -----
From: Richard Marken rsmarken@GMAIL.COM
Date: Sunday, November 8, 2009 9:30 pm
Subject: Re: What happened to CSGnet?
To: CSGNET@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU
[From Rick Marken (2009.11.08.1930)]
Dick Robertson (2009.11.08.1428CDT) –
If there is anybody left here what do you think about how PCT might approach this new “field” of behavioral economics, as exemplified in the study I post here?
I’d love to talk about this; indeed, I may be directing a student’s senior honors project on this topic (or something like it). I’ll read this over and try to come up with some comments ASAP.
Best
Rick
Behavioral Economics Study
A recent New York Times Bestseller, Predictably Irrational, by Dan Ariely, describes a host of experiments to establish all the ways that decision making displays The hidden forces that shape our decisions. Note that word, forces. Would those forces be examples of unconsciously identified (or selected-for-control) controlled variables? Anyway, it seems like an interesting questionwhat is a person controlling that produces findings like Ariely got in experiments like the following?
On page 26 he introduces this experiment. if I asked you for the last two digits of your social security number then asked you whether you would pay this number in dollars for a particular bottle of [1998 wine] would the mere suggestion of that number influence how much you would be willing to spend on wine? Sounds preposterous, doesnt it? Well, wait until you see what happened to a group of MBA students at MIT .
Saying that he and a co-investigator were trying to prove the existence of arbitrary coherence, they asked 55 students to observe six objects (left list below) and fill out the last two digits of your social security number at the top of the [response sheet], and then write them again next to each of the items in the form of a price. [and then] When you are finished with that I want you to indicate on your sheetswith a simple yes or nowhether you would pay that amount for each of the products. Next, they were to write down the minimum they would pay for each of the products. The last data were averaged for the five groups in the table.
(We assume that the SS-number groups were roughly even in terms of number of students in each, but we are not told that here.)
Results
When I analyzed the data Did the digits from the SS numbers serve as anchors? Remarkably, they did.
See the table. The consistency of increasing means in each field (with just two exceptions) seems rather impressive for soc. Sci. type of data, although the nudest correlations are typical, and suggest that a lot of subjects were far on each side of the mean.
But it raises what I think is an interesting question: What were the subjects controlling for that their so-called bids seemed influenced by the soc. Sec. numbers they wrote down just before making their bids?
Range of last two digits of SS number
Products 00-19 20-39 40-59 60-79 80-99 Correlations
Cordless Trackball 8.64 11.82 13.45 21.18 26.18 0.42
Cordless Keyboard 16.09 26.82 29.27 34.55 55.64 0.52
Design Book 12.82 16.18 15.82 19.27 30.00 0.32
Chocolates 9.55 10.64 12.45 13.27 20.64 0.42
1998 Wine 8.64 14.45 12.55 15 45 27.91 0.33
1996 Wine 11.73 22.45 18.09 24.55 37.55 0.33
This work, along with the similar stuff for which Kahnemann and Tversky won the Nobel in economics is getting widespread attention, and apparently many people are found to follow the patterns determined for average persons in their various studies. How would a PCT study go about to identify the various CVs that different people might be controlling in these experiments (but also in real-life decisions they claim) that would produce the average results in these Casting Nets studies?
Best,
Dick R
–
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
> www.mindreadings.com