The Decline Effect

CSGnet Archive CSG2011
1

[From Fred Nickols (2011.10.14.0018 MST)]

Given the interest in and significance attached to scientific experimentation by several members of this list, the article about The Decline Effect ought to stir up some discussion. The link was posted to another list and I am passing it along.

The Decline Effect, New Yorker Magazine.

www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/13/101213fa_fact_lehrer

Disturbing or intriguing.

2

[From Richard Kennaway (2011.10.14.0919 BST)]

[From Fred Nickols (2011.10.14.0018 MST)]

Given the interest in and significance attached to scientific experimentation by several members of this list, the article about The Decline Effect ought to stir up some discussion. The link was posted to another list and I am passing it along.

The Decline Effect, New Yorker Magazine.
www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/13/101213fa_fact_lehrer<The Truth Wears Off | The New Yorker;

Disturbing or intriguing.

See also: The Last Psychiatrist: The Decline Effect Is Stupid

The "stupid" in the title of that article refers to Lehrer's spin on the matter in the New Yorker, which is outright woo: "It's as if our facts were losing their truth: claims that have been enshrined in textbooks are suddenly unprovable", and "The truth wears off." The Last Psychiatrist replies:

"A wide range of fields from the almost entirely made-up to the slightly less made-up are losing their "truth?" This phenomenon isn't occurring in physics. You could (and people did) build a Saturn V launch platform on the unscarred edifice of Maxwell's equations, and then 40 years later build an iPhone on top of that same edifice. It's amazing what you can do with the black magic of electromagnetic theory.
...
"In these regression sciences, we throw a ton of data into Visicalc and see what curves we can fit to them. And then, with a wink and a nod, we issue extremely broad press releases and don't correct the journalists or students when they confuse correlation with causation. We save that piercing insight for the cushy expert witness gigs."

···

--
Richard Kennaway, jrk@cmp.uea.ac.uk, Richard Kennaway
School of Computing Sciences,
University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, U.K.

3

[From Dick Robertson (2011.10.14.0985CDT)]

Richard,

I was delighted to read your comment on this “phenomenon” that I had not previously heard about.

Also Thanks to Fred Nichols for finding it.

Best,

Dick Robertson

···

----- Original Message -----
From: “Kennaway Richard Dr (CMP)” R.Kennaway@UEA.AC.UK

This email has been scanned by the MessageLabs Email Security System.
For more information please visit http://www.messagelabs.com/email

4

{Martin Lewitt 2011 Oct 14 1418 MDT]

Thanks for both of the articles. I bet wheel see those psychological excuses and positive result bias excuses used a lot to obscure negligence, fraud and bias. The spin in the wake of climate gate email revelations is a case in point. "Scientists are only human", and "everyone has emails they'd be embarrassed to have made public" as excuses for fudging and hiding data, and pressuring editors not to publish results supporting competing hypotheses. I hope the scientific culture hasn't gotten so vulgar,unethical and corrupt. Most scientists I know would be embarrassed to send such catty and conspiratorial emails even to trusted collegues and not because they would be afraid they might be subject to FOI legislation but because a certain level of sincere search for the truth and integrity is expected even in personal behavior, and reflects upon your credibility over all.

-- Martin L

···

On 10/14/2011 2:23 AM, Kennaway Richard Dr (CMP) wrote:

[From Richard Kennaway (2011.10.14.0919 BST)]

[From Fred Nickols (2011.10.14.0018 MST)]

Given the interest in and significance attached to scientific experimentation by several members of this list, the article about The Decline Effect ought to stir up some discussion. The link was posted to another list and I am passing it along.

The Decline Effect, New Yorker Magazine.
www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/13/101213fa_fact_lehrer<The Truth Wears Off | The New Yorker;

Disturbing or intriguing.

See also: The Last Psychiatrist: The Decline Effect Is Stupid

The "stupid" in the title of that article refers to Lehrer's spin on the matter in the New Yorker, which is outright woo: "It's as if our facts were losing their truth: claims that have been enshrined in textbooks are suddenly unprovable", and "The truth wears off." The Last Psychiatrist replies:

"A wide range of fields from the almost entirely made-up to the slightly less made-up are losing their "truth?" This phenomenon isn't occurring in physics. You could (and people did) build a Saturn V launch platform on the unscarred edifice of Maxwell's equations, and then 40 years later build an iPhone on top of that same edifice. It's amazing what you can do with the black magic of electromagnetic theory.
...
"In these regression sciences, we throw a ton of data into Visicalc and see what curves we can fit to them. And then, with a wink and a nod, we issue extremely broad press releases and don't correct the journalists or students when they confuse correlation with causation. We save that piercing insight for the cushy expert witness gigs."

5

[From Rick Marken (2011.10.16.0830)]

{Martin Lewitt 2011 Oct 14 1418 MDT]

Thanks for both of the articles. �I bet wheel see those psychological
excuses and positive result bias excuses used a lot to obscure negligence,
fraud and bias. �The spin in the wake of climate gate email revelations is a
case in point. �"Scientists are only human", and "everyone has emails they'd
be embarrassed to have made public" as excuses for fudging and hiding data,
and pressuring editors not to publish results supporting competing
hypotheses.

I have always believed that research results should be evaluated based
on the contents of the emails sent by the researchers. Like this
one;-)

RSM

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

6

[Martin Taylor 2011.10.16.11.39]
[From Rick Marken (2011.10.16.0830)]

{Martin Lewitt 2011 Oct 14 1418 MDT]

Thanks for both of the articles. I bet wheel see those psychological
excuses and positive result bias excuses used a lot to obscure negligence,
fraud and bias. The spin in the wake of climate gate email revelations is a
case in point. "Scientists are only human", and "everyone has emails they'd
be embarrassed to have made public" as excuses for fudging and hiding data,
and pressuring editors not to publish results supporting competing
hypotheses.

I have always believed that research results should be evaluated based
on the contents of the emails sent by the researchers. Like this
one;-)

RSM

That's a much better response than the only one I had composed in my mind, which was simply: "Huh! ...what universe do you live in? Fox News?

Martin T

7

[From Rick Marken (2011.10.16.0950)]

Martin Taylor (2011.10.16.11.39)--

RM: I have always believed that research results should be evaluated based
on the contents of the emails sent by the researchers. Like this
one;-)

MT: That's a much better response than the only one I had composed in my mind,
which was simply: "Huh! ...what universe do you live in? Fox News?

Thanks, Martin.

It's clear what universe ML lives in. And it's clear that data are
simply a disturbance to be resisted since, as we know, the facts have
a liberal bias;-) So the New Yorker article (suggesting that data is
useless) must have come as a huge relief to him, after that awful data
I posted from Robert Reich, which must have taken some effort to
completely dismiss;-)

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

8

[From: Richard Pfau (2011.10.17.0705 Nepal Time]

As I recall, the “decline effect” is a phenomenon discussed in a book that I found well worth reading, entitled The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, by Leonard Mlodenow.

···

-----Original Message-----

From: Fred Nickols fred@NICKOLS.US

To: CSGNET CSGNET@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU

Sent: Fri, Oct 14, 2011 3:22 am

Subject: The Decline Effect

[From Fred Nickols (2011.10.14.0018 MST)]

Given the interest in and significance attached to scientific experimentation by several members of this list, the article about The Decline Effect ought to stir up some discussion. The link was posted to another list and I am passing it along.

The Decline Effect, New Yorker Magazine.

www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/13/101213fa_fact_lehrer

Disturbing or intriguing.