Closed loop economics

[From Rick Marken (2004.02.25.1125)]

Attached is a graph of the lagged correlation between gross private
investment (as a proportion of GDP) and growth (as a percentage change in
GDP) for the US and Norway. The results are basically the same, at least
near zero lag. Investment in quarters before the present (0 lag) is
negatively related to growth and, in the quarters after the present, it is
positively related to growth.

My guess is that the results for Norway are a time compressed version of the
results for the US. That is, a lag of one quarter for Norway is equivalent
to a lag of three quarters for the US. The Norwegian economy is, of course,
much smaller than the US economy so it's possible that producers in Norway
can react to changes in demand (represented by changes in GDP growth) more
quickly than can US producers. Or it's possible that the effects of
investment on meeting demand occur more rapidly in Norway than in the US.

But it is interesting that the observed relationship between investment and
growth in Norway is basically the same as what we see in the US. There is
certainly no evidence of a "stimulus" effect of investment on growth, which
would show up as a positive correlation between prior investment (lag -1)
and current growth. I'll look at several more countries to see if this is
generally true. It seems like it should be. In a closed loop economy
producers would only increase production (by increasing investment) if they
knew that there was going to be demand for what they produce. The data from
the US and Norway suggest that this is exactly what is going on: investment
is simultaneous with or slightly subsequent to growth. This is what you
would expect to see if producers vary their output (investment) to meet
existing demand (GDP).

I think it's important to understand that a negative correlation between
investment at time t-1 and growth at time t does not mean that investment
has a negative effect on growth. It just means that these two variables are
negatively _related_. My control model analysis of this data assumes that
increased investment leads to increased production (of goods and services).
But these goods and services must be purchased (demanded) by those who
produce them. The amount available to purchase the goods and services
produced is approximately GDP, which is what was paid (in wages and profits)
to produce them.

The amount of actual demand for the goods and services produced depends on
how GDP (income) is distributed and how much previously saved GDP is used to
purchase what is produced. So changes in GDP are only an approximate measure
of changes in demand. But the results of the analysis of the relationship
between investment and growth in the US and Norway shows that growth
(demand) precedes investment, not vice versa.

Best regards

Rick

USNorway.jpg

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

From[Bill Williams 25 February 2004 1:50 PM CST]

[From Rick Marken (2004.02.25.1125)]

So changes in GDP are only an approximate measure
of changes in demand.

Rick is indirectly expressing a conceptual misunderstanding.
The number that is reported as Gross Domestic Product is
simulataneously both a measure of aggregate supply, and
aggregate demand. These relationships are logical rather
than empirical.

But the results of the analysis of the relationship

between investment and growth in the US and Norway shows that growth
(demand) precedes investment, not vice versa.

As I pointed out quite some time ago, Gross Investment is a hybrid
measure that includes net investment which is an addition to the stock
of capital and a capital cost experienced as a result of the wear and
tear and rust over time. Who knows what the relationship is between
Income and investment might be when there is an equivocation going
on in which investment in terms of an addition to a capital stock is
replaced by a measure which there is no necessary correlation with
net investment-- that is gross investment. Gross investment to repeat
can be positive at the same time net investment is zero or negative.

Further, there are two relationships between investment (net) and
income. One is the multiplier Y = k x I. And, the accelerator which
is vaguely described in terms of I = f(Y). I haven't been following what
has been developing closely, but it appears that Rick has rediscovered
the accelerator. In the Keynesian system see p. 247. Gen Theory, the
purchase of new equipment ( net investment ) is determined by the
expectation of profit. Capitalism is a system driven by the profit motive.
So, on the accelerator side of the analysis a growth in purchases creates
an expectation that investment (net) might be profitable ( the Marginal
efficiency of capital in the Keynesian system minus the interest rate).

Now, the interesting thing from the standpoint of a control theory type
analysis is that a growth in expenditures, of whatever type either
investment (net or gross in this case) or consumption, or government,
results in an expectation that investment (net) will be profitable. This
sets in motion further expenditures-- and this relationship is a positive
feedback loop. Veblen describe this (1904) in his _The Theory of
Business Enterprise_ on page 90. Veblen states the obvious that,

"the ultimate conditioning forces in the conduct and aims of business
is coming to be the prospective profit-yielding capacity of any given
business move..." This from the chapter on "Business Principles."
Veblen's analysis of financial instability was expanded upon by
Minsky-- without adequate acknowledgement by Minski-- See
Wolfson, Martin H. 1994 _Financial Crises: Understanding the
Postwar U.S. Experience_ 2nd edition. M.E Sharpe

What has been missing from Ricks exercise in masturbating wth the
data has been a structure. This is what I understood that the Test
Bed was going to provide. Recently when Rick attempted to explain
the "big picture" -- the comprehensive context in which his analysis
was proceeding, he described the aggregate economic system in
terms of an analogy to a Robinson Crusoe economic individual.
As, I pointed out at the time-- where are the profit seeking capitalists
located in this vision. As best I could see they were no where in sight.
Apparently in "Rick's world" the causal ecnomic process conceived
in terms of control theory by passes the motivation and control of
the process by capitalists.

More grist for my fable "Running Naked in the Forest'

Bill Williams

[From Rick Marken (2004.02.28.1150)]

Here is a comparison of the US and UK quarterly data on the
relationship between economic growth (measured as percentage change in
GDP per quarter) and capital investment (called gross fixed capital
formation in the European databases). The UK data looks a lot more
like the US data than does the Norway data (see [Rick Marken
(2004.02.25.1125)]. Note that the lagged correlations are slightly
smaller for the UK than for the US. The correlations are plotted on
different axes in different scales so that it's easier to see the
similarity of the shape of the lagged correlation plots. Once again,
investment that occurs prior to growth (lag -1, -2, etc) is weakly or
negatively related to growth. For the UK data the negative
relationship between prior investment and growth isn't apparent until 2
quarters prior to the present (zero lag). In both the US and the UK,
the strongest positive relationship between capital investment and
growth shows up when investment _follows_ growth. It looks to me like
these data are consistent with the idea that the aggregate producer
invests to grow output only _after_ there is increased demand (growth)
for that output.

The data for the UK and the US are based on about 200 data points (the
UK data was quarterly from 1955). The data for Norway were based on
only about 100 data points (quarterly from 1978) which may account, to
some extent, for the raggedness of the lagged correlation plot.

Best regards

Rick

Richard S. Marken
marken@mindreadings.com
Home 310 474-0313
Cell 310 729-1400

US_UK.jpg

[From Bill Powers (2004.02.29.0740 MST)]

Happy birthday to all 19-year-olds who are as old as I am.

Rick Marken (2004.02.28.1150)--

Here is a comparison of the US and UK quarterly data on the
relationship between economic growth (measured as percentage change in
GDP per quarter) and capital investment (called gross fixed capital
formation in the European databases). The UK data looks a lot more
like the US data than does the Norway data (see [Rick Marken
(2004.02.25.1125)]. Note that the lagged correlations are slightly
smaller for the UK than for the US. The correlations are plotted on
different axes in different scales so that it's easier to see the
similarity of the shape of the lagged correlation plots.

Better to plot them to the same scales. It looks as if the UK reaches a
maximum lagged correlation of 0.30 while the US peaks at about 0.36 --
nearly the same. Either plot to the same scale, or put a second scale down
the other side, or normalize both data sets to a peak of 1.0. Do the UK
data reach statistical significance?

The basic point is very clear -- to put it in the negative, there is
apparently no evidence to support the claim that changes in investment
affect changes in GDP. Of course this may be an inappropriate use of the
term "investment" (gross instead of net), so it would be nice to find a way
of saying what is meant in terms closer to the actual data rather than in
terms of categories. Categories don't make anything happen.

There must be somebody else in the world who has seen and commented on
these relationships. Try "computational economics" on the Web. Charlotte
Bruun (from whom I haven't heard for a couple of weeks) is connected with
that sort of movement.

I am slowly working my way through computer problems and back toward
expanding the Econ004 program (in Delphi) to include multiple goods,
multiple consumers, multiple producers, and (from you and Linda) multiple
banks. I find that it takes a lot of energy to get myself up for a major
revision of the program. It may be that object-oriented programming would
make the job easier, if I can get over my prejudices about inanimate
objects that can do things to themselves. If Bruce Abbott is listening ...

I have a new laptop to replace my sick old one, and unfortunately its
operating system had to be Windows XP or nothing. Windows XP is a real pain
in the butt. It turns out that peer-to-peer networking (i.e., my laptop and
two desktop computers) is almost impossible to implement if the other
computers aren't running XP also (at $260 each for upgrading). And I feel
that Bill Gates is poking around in my computer all the time. Linux looks
nicer and nicer.

Oh, a thought in passing. Money seems to have two roles in an economy. One
is simply as a "medium of exchange" which allows earning very general
purchasing power without having to spend it before it rots. The other is as
a medium of speculation. The speculation comes about because some people
see ways to get hold of a lot of money without performing paid labor for
it, so they take advantage of the properties of the system to acquire
wealth and power.

This pessimistic view leaves out one useful function of wealth and power,
which is to allow mounting large enterprises that require planning and
cooperation on a massive scale. But one has to wonder whether the
_personal_ aspects of wealth and power are what make these large projects
possible, or perhaps whether that aspect of the situation isn't a drag on
the economy. I realize that I don't have a very well-rounded view of what
goes on in the world of high finance, but it seems to me that as soon as
people surround themselves with the trappings of wealth and power, they
begin to think there is something special about them. Thank heaven for
Dilbert and his Pointy-Haired Boss.

Best,

Bill P.

[Martin Taylor 2004.02.29.1131]

[From Bill Powers (2004.02.29.0740 MST)]
Linux looks
nicer and nicer.

She'd probably make you very happy. Here's to a forthcoming divorce
and remarriage!

Oh, a thought in passing. Money seems to have two roles in an economy. One
is simply as a "medium of exchange" which allows earning very general
purchasing power without having to spend it before it rots. The other is as
a medium of speculation.

I'm not clear in what way these differ. I can certainly see how they
differ in terms of what perceptions are being controlled (in part) by
the level of money owned, but I don't see how they differ when we use
the kind of language you used.

Money is a "medium of exchange" when you buy a newspaper, and it is a
"medium of exchange" when you buy a perception that you have a chance
at receiving a lot of money later. I think you always have to
analyze money as a medium of exchange, whether the stuff for which it
is exchanged is itself money or some commodity or service.

...one useful function of wealth and power,
which is to allow mounting large enterprises that require planning and
cooperation on a massive scale. But one has to wonder whether the
_personal_ aspects of wealth and power are what make these large projects
possible, or perhaps whether that aspect of the situation isn't a drag on
the economy.

I'm surprised to hear YOU even question whether "_personal_ aspects
of wealth and power are what make these large projects possible".
From a PCT viewpoint, what other aspects could there be? Money
doesn't assemble itself, and even if it did, it would have no effect
to speak of. Someone would have to use it to control some personal
perception before it would have much effect on anyone else, or "the
economy".

Perhaps you would agree eith a rewording? "One has to wonder whether
the nature of the perceptions being controlled through the
acquisition and use of great wealth affects the value of the
resulting projects to the economy as a whole." (Clearly that fudges
the question of what could be meant by "value to the economy", an
issue that has to be considered in some depth before it can be a
useful analytic concept).

Martin

[From Rick Marken (2003.02.29.1030)]

Bill Powers (2004.02.29.0740 MST)--

Happy birthday to all 19-year-olds who are as old as I am.

I think Rossini turned 50 today. It's amazing how many people I know
who, like me, were born one day away from 2/29, every one of them in a
non-leap year (mine was 1946), so there was no 2/29 to hit. Anyway,
I'll take the happy birthday as a belated one for me. I'm still 19 in
spirit if not in years.

Better to plot them to the same scales. It looks as if the UK reaches a
maximum lagged correlation of 0.30 while the US peaks at about 0.36 --
nearly the same. Either plot to the same scale, or put a second scale
down
the other side,

Oops. The grqaph I posted had both the US and UK data on the same
scale. I was going to post the graph on different scales but changed my
mind and forgot to change the write up appropriately.

or normalize both data sets to a peak of 1.0. Do the UK
data reach statistical significance?

I didn't test but I'm sure that, with ~200 data points, a correlation
of .3 (or -.3) is significantly different from 0. But it's the patterns
of correlations that is of interest to me. If you smooth the rather
noisy growth data (by simply averaging) you can get these correlations
into the .5-.7 range.

The basic point is very clear -- to put it in the negative, there is
apparently no evidence to support the claim that changes in investment
affect changes in GDP.

Right. If anything it goes the other way. Changes in GDP more likely
affect changes in investment. And how else could it be, really? I'm in
business myself (_very_ small time residential real estate, but I still
get mailings from the Republican party, which I consider my bona
fides;-)) and I'm certainly not going to invest (build or purchase new
units) if I see no demand for what I produce.

Of course this may be an inappropriate use of the
term "investment" (gross instead of net), so it would be nice to find
a way
of saying what is meant in terms closer to the actual data rather than
in
terms of categories. Categories don't make anything happen.

I think that's what we need models for. But what is net investment? I
have seen "Net capital formation" listed in one European database
(Denmark, I think). I don't think there is a "Net investment" in the US
data but I'll check. But could you what "net" as opposed to "gross"
investment is? My economics consultant (Linda) hasn't a clue.

There must be somebody else in the world who has seen and commented on
these relationships.

I'm looking but I haven't found anything yet.

Best regards

Rick

···

---
Richard S. Marken
marken@mindreadings.com
Home 310 474-0313
Cell 310 729-1400

[From Bill Powers (2004.02.29.1720 MST)]

Rick Marken (2003.02.29.1030)--

But what is net investment? I have seen "Net capital formation" listed in
one European database (Denmark, I think). I don't think there is a "Net
investment" in the US data but I'll check. But could you what "net" as
opposed to "gross" investment is? My economics consultant (Linda) hasn't a
clue.

As some people use the term, investment means the value of capital
equipment purchased, and includes such things as raw materials, unfinished
goods, cash reserves, and who knows what else. However, since capital
equipment deteriorates, and smart accountants can find all kinds of
deductions to take ( like those imaginary "user costs"), the net capital
investment (I deduce) is what is left after deductions from the gross value.

However, if we ignore bookkeeping details, gross investment is simply the
amount spend on capital equipment, so your figures probably do mean something.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bill Powers (2004.02.29.1929 MST)]

Martin Taylor 2004.02.29.1131--

Oh, a thought in passing. Money seems to have two roles in an economy. One
is simply as a "medium of exchange" which allows earning very general
purchasing power without having to spend it before it rots. The other is as
a medium of speculation.

I'm not clear in what way these differ. I can certainly see how they
differ in terms of what perceptions are being controlled (in part) by
the level of money owned, but I don't see how they differ when we use
the kind of language you used.

My thoughts on this are not very clear yet. The "medium of exchange" part
has to do with the Econ004 model. This model contains a certain amount of
money, which is passed around among the entities of the model but is
perfectly conserved. The parties each retain a certain amount of cash
reserve, and spend the rest to build up inventories, pay out wages and
capital distributions, and to replace goods that are used. As long as
nobody runs out of money, the system will keep working indefinitely.
Eventually the model will allow for money to be spent on interest, on
maintenance and purchase of new equipment, and on expanding the plant as
population (and aspiration) grows. That will require creating new money,
but as the model stands it does not grow and needs only a fixed amount of
money.

It seems to me that a large monkey wrench can be dropped into the gears of
this model if we allow speculators into the picture. A speculator (or maybe
just "entrepreneur" is the word I want) has the goal of using money to
produce goods to create a return of still more money: what Keynes called
the M-C-M' concept of the economy. To the entrepreneur, producing goods for
Consumption is simply a way of turning some quantity of Money into a larger
quantity of Money-prime (in the hands of the entrepreneur, of course). So
the point of the game becomes the accumulation of as much money as
possible, and meeting the needs of consumers (as minimally as possible, at
the highest price possible) is only a means to that end.

What a speculator does is to divert as much of the money flow as possible
into his own possession. This has to have adverse effects on the balance of
the relationship between production and consumption, in which the costs of
production are returned to the producer in the form of purchases of goods
and services.

However, some such diversion would seem to be required in order to launch
any new enterprise. In Econ004 we can see how prices automatically adjust
to create just the producer income needed to pay the wage-costs of
production, to pay capital income to owners, lenders, renters, pensioners,
and such, and to set money aside for capital equipment. But to start a new
enterprise, money must come from somewhere to be spent on new equipment and
to hire new workers -(who come from where?). If this money is extracted
from the current sum in circulation, the rest of the economy must slow
down. So the only practical way to get the new money would seem to be
through borrowing it in a way that legally creates the new money. If this
is to happen without destroying the previously-existing balance,
productivity in existing industries must increase enough to free workers,
or new workers must come into the market, who can then be hired to man the
new plants.

As far as I can see, speculators who work on invested money (stocks and
bonds) don't create any new money, so all the changes in wealth or net
worth that result from such speculations have zero effect on the amount of
money that exists, but they do tend to take money out of circulation --
they reduce "liqquidity.". That's about as far as I've got on this.

Money is a "medium of exchange" when you buy a newspaper, and it is a
"medium of exchange" when you buy a perception that you have a chance
at receiving a lot of money later. I think you always have to
analyze money as a medium of exchange, whether the stuff for which it
is exchanged is itself money or some commodity or service.

The context I was thinking of was the C-M-C vs M-C-M view of the economy:
the consumer's view versus the entrepreneur's view. The consumer does not
want money for its own sake, but only for its abililty to supply needs and
wants of non-monetary kinds, C. The "pure" entrepreneur, when he is
concerned with his financial manipulations rather than with his role as a
consumer, places value on goods and services only to the extent that they
lead to increasing the money in his possession, M. If money has any value
outside itself, it has to be through its transformation into wealth, the
means of production, and that too is only a means toward acquiring more money.

I'm surprised to hear YOU even question whether "_personal_ aspects
of wealth and power are what make these large projects possible".
From a PCT viewpoint, what other aspects could there be?

"Personal aspects" was supposed to be shorthand for "aspects of having
wealth and power that provide personal satisfaction at having them," the
intended contrast being with the uses of wealth and power to create new
enterprises whether or not anyone is led to feel superior to or smarter
than other people in the process of doing this. A CEO has certain functions
to perform in a company to make it operate properly, and performing those
functions requires brains, costs money, and requires the ability to give
the right orders for others to carry out -- exercising power. But the
functions performed by the CEO have no relationship to his enjoymnent of
feelings of power over others, or his demands for a very high salary so he
can maintain an ostentatious life-style, or his requirement that others
treat him with special deference as if he is some kind of royalty or deity.
It is the latter kind of effect of wealth and power that leads to bloated
egos and incomes, and that creates inequities. I suspect that it also
disrupts the normal functioning of an economy.

Best,

Bill P.

From[Bill Williams 29 February 2004 11:20 PM CST]

[From Bill Powers (2004.02.29.1929 MST)]

Martin Taylor 2004.02.29.1131--

>>Oh, a thought in passing. Money seems to have two roles in an economy.

My thoughts on this are not very clear yet.

The question that Powers raises

   "Where is the money coming from?"

may result in a shift in the context of the problem-- if it recognized that
money
can be created. Such a realization changes the problem from a sequential
analysis of income flows which ends in a dead end, to an analysis of how a
capitalist economy functions. The shift involves a change in the assumption
that
savings finances investment to one in which investment through bank credit
creation generates savings. The direction of causation is the reverse of
what
it might appear in a sequential analysis. In one savings in time t1 results
in
investment in time t2. In the Keynesian system investment and savings are
simultaneous, but investment is the independent or causal variable. But,
this
is different from Powers conception in which Y = C + I + S.

Professor Bruun's statement that "Monely has a logic of its own." may be a
somewhat overly dramatic assertion of the peculiar causal structure of a
capitalist system. In the orthodox view money is _merely_ a medium of
exchange. In the Keynesian view money becomes a cultural artifact that is
itself subject to attempts by econmic agents to control. But, these efforts
can not budge the logic of the accounting identities.

Powers seems to be making progress, but he still is grumbling, Witness
his swipe at Keynes' user costs-- which he describes as "imaginary." But,
user
costs are, or should be, an obvious element in an economy. Tools and
equipment
experience wear and tear in the process of production. An economic theory,
however, innovative that does not recognize the reaility of user costs is in
a word
doomed to irrelevance.

Bill Williams

[From Kenny Kitzke (2004.03.01)]

<Bill Powers (2004.02.29.1929 MST)>

<My thoughts on this are not very clear yet. The “medium of exchange” part
has to do with the Econ004 model. This model contains a certain amount of
money, which is passed around among the entities of the model but is
perfectly conserved. The parties each retain a certain amount of cash
reserve, and spend the rest to build up inventories, pay out wages and
capital distributions, and to replace goods that are used. As long as
nobody runs out of money, the system will keep working indefinitely.
Eventually the model will allow for money to be spent on interest, on
maintenance and purchase of new equipment, and on expanding the plant as
population (and aspiration) grows. That will require creating new money,
but as the model stands it does not grow and needs only a fixed amount of
money.>

And, until you get your understanding of money clear, and make the model to reflect the actual open economic system with unlimited amounts of money (not one with a closed/fixed amount of money), I assume you, unlike Rick, will not try to proffer revolutionary “discoveries” about the real system based upon a model or the most general analyses?

Yep, same way with banks and profit motives and people who produce without pay and accounting conventions and measures of value. It would appear you have a lot of work to do, kind sir, before your model or its resultant runs can be taken seriously.

<That’s about as far as I’ve got on this.>

And, to those who have made studing economic systems a focus of their education and career, I would think you would appear to be a babe fed on milk.

But, I have always said I liked your humbleness as much as your theories. It is refreshing to see you grapple with your lack of comprehension of how economies work or what the terms and data available actually mean.

Knowing what you don’t know is often as important as claiming what you do know. It is fertile ground for learning and reorganization. Is Rick listening? Is he trying to learn like you, or just analyzing and mining some incomprehensible data and blowing his horn about things he can barely grasp?

I guess we just have to measure people by what they know and don’t know and what they claim is true using words without knowledge.

[From Rick Marken (2004.03.01.1520)]

Bill Powers (2004.02.29.0740 MST)--

There must be somebody else in the world who has seen and commented on
these relationships.

As I noted in a post some days ago, E Ray Caterbery, in his book _Wall
Street Capitalism_ discussed the fact that one of these relationships -- the
observed positive relationship between discount rate and inflation-- has
been observed. And the response to that observation, according to Caterbury,
has been to find ways to explain it away. Economic theory says that there is
a negative relationship between discount rate and inflation and that
theoretical belief is considered ground truth. If observations don't fit the
theory then the observations are considered wrong or misleading.

I don't know if anyone has observed or commented on the relationships
between investment and growth that I have observed. I haven't found any
evidence of it yet. But, if these relationships have been observed, I would
be surprised if they were treated as anything other than an annoyance to be
brushed aside with verbal mumbo jumbo (wasn't that the title of a recent
post?).

What I would really like to see in economics, and have not seen yet, is a
picture of the relationship between observed data (such as time variations
in GDP and investment) and model behavior (such as variations in GDP and
investment produced by a working model of the economy). That is, I'd like
to see something like the graph I've attached to this post, which comes from
one of my demos. I'd like to see something like this graph, but with
macroeconomic rather than tracking data, of course. I hope you'll let me
know if you find something like this. I'll certainly let you know if I do.

I think the goal of the economic modeling project should be the development
of models that actually behave like the observed data, just like in our
tracking tasks.

Best regards

Rick

DataModel.jpg

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

[From Bill Powers (2004.03.01.1649 MST)]

Rick Marken (2004.03.01.1520) --

What I would really like to see in economics, and have not seen yet, is a
picture of the relationship between observed data (such as time variations
in GDP and investment) and model behavior (such as variations in GDP and
investment produced by a working model of the economy).

This is an observational fact, not a prediction of a model. The fact
appears to be that investment follows GDP after some time lag. This fact
would have to be put into the model as a dependence of investment
expenditures on the growth rate of, say, composite producer gross income.
It would be a "psychological" characteristic of a manager of the composite
plant (the one with the power to decide on investment strategies). The
parameters would be a time delay and a constant factor corresponding to the
observed regression coefficient (S-R model of this manager). I don't know
what a control system model would look like -- we'd have to guess at what
this manager is controlling such that it leads to the observed dependence.

Of course there would still be an unknown, the dependence of productivity
on investment, which also brings in the cost of maintaining and replacing
equipment and obtaining raw materials.

I am trying to work out ways of converting all the basic demos into Delphi
so they will run on Windows 2000 and up. This has taken over my priorities
due to requests for such adaptations. This is slow, complicated, and
tedious work -- I think I must be slowing down a tad. So Econ004 will have
to fit into the spaces where I am temporarily stymied on the conversion
project.

Best,

Bill P.

···

That is, I'd like
to see something like the graph I've attached to this post, which comes from
one of my demos. I'd like to see something like this graph, but with
macroeconomic rather than tracking data, of course. I hope you'll let me
know if you find something like this. I'll certainly let you know if I do.

I think the goal of the economic modeling project should be the development
of models that actually behave like the observed data, just like in our
tracking tasks.

Best regards

Rick
--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

[From Rick Marken (2004.03.01.2015)]

Bill Powers (2004.03.01.1649 MST)]

Rick Marken (2004.03.01.1520) --

What I would really like to see in economics, and have not seen yet,
is a
picture of the relationship between observed data (such as time
variations
in GDP and investment) and model behavior (such as variations in GDP
and
investment produced by a working model of the economy).

This is an observational fact, not a prediction of a model.

Of course. Same as the observational fact that there is a strong
negative relationship between (invisible) disturbance and handle
movement and little or no relationship between (visible) cursor and
handle movement.

The fact
appears to be that investment follows GDP after some time lag. This
fact
would have to be put into the model as a dependence of investment
expenditures on the growth rate of, say, composite producer gross
income.

Or, possibly, as the composite producer borrowing to invest in or to
control the relationship between production and demand. But whatever
the model is, it should be able to mimic the behavior of he system.
Once we have a model that can predict, say, changes in investment as a
function of time, we can use the model to make predictions about other
variables that are, hopefully, also available as measures in the
macro-economic data bases.

I am trying to work out ways of converting all the basic demos into
Delphi
so they will run on Windows 2000 and up. This has taken over my
priorities
due to requests for such adaptations. This is slow, complicated, and
tedious work -- I think I must be slowing down a tad. So Econ004 will
have
to fit into the spaces where I am temporarily stymied on the conversion
project.

Good luck!!

Best

Rick

···

---
Richard S. Marken
marken@mindreadings.com
Home 310 474-0313
Cell 310 729-1400

From[Bill Williams 1 March 2004 1O:25 PM CST]

[From Rick Marken (2004.03.01.2015)]

Bill Powers says,

> This is an observational fact, not a prediction of a model.

And Rick Marken says,

Of course.

Actually what Rick and Bill think of as an observation, is instead an
inference. And, the statistical analysis does not consider the two most
significant economic events in the 20th century-- the Great Depression and
World War II.

Remember-- auto-correlated variables.

Bill Williams

Kenneth Kitzke wrote:

And, to those who have made studing economic systems a focus of
their education and career, I would think you would appear to be a
babe fed on milk.

But, I have always said I liked your humbleness as much as your
theories. It is refreshing to see you grapple with your lack of
comprehension of how economies work or what the terms and data
available actually mean.

Knowing what you don't know is often as important as claiming what
you do know. It is fertile ground for learning and reorganization.
Is Rick listening? Is he trying to learn like you, or just
analyzing and mining some incomprehensible data and blowing his horn
about things he can barely grasp?

I guess we just have to measure people by what they know and don't
know and what they claim is true using words without knowledge.

If I might add to this:

Past economic data is not a reliable guide to the future, for the
simple reason that economics can only truly be described in terms of
dynamic complex systems. And, by definition, a dynamic complex system
is unpredictable.

The development of Chaos Theory over the last couple of decades has
provided a good insight into how dynamic systems behave. It appears
they always settle into a steady state where they are relatively
unaffected by a certain amount of change. But, if a change exceeds
some critical level, the system will act chaotically for a short time
and then settle into a new steady state that can act quite
differently from the way it acted before.

Economic history is full of examples of these unpredictable changes
of state. So, any economic modeler should be thoroughly conversant
with Complexity Theory before embarking upon any models of prediction.

Note: in fact you can control dynamic complex systems, by making use
of the fact that they change into different steady states after an
external change. But, as you can never predict what will happen in
the new steady states, you have to have a mechanism in place that
allows you to make sure the jumps into new steady states always lead
to an improvement. Biological evolution is based upon this strategy.

(There is an explanation of this at:
  Stigmergic systems - summary of theory
project/controllingcomplexity3.html? )

Peter Small

Author of: Lingo Sorcery, Magical A-Life Avatars, The Entrepreneurial
Web, The Ultimate Game of Strategy and Web Presence
http://www.stigmergicsystems.com

···

--

[From Kenny Kitzke (2004.03.02)]

Hello, Peter. You seem to be new to CSGNet? We have a convention here of putting a header on our posts, something like the one above, so readers can tell who is posting and who’s words are being quoted or replied to. This also helps our archives. I’m sure you’ll get the “system.”

<Past economic data is not a reliable guide to the future, for the
simple reason that economics can only truly be described in terms of
dynamic complex systems. And, by definition, a dynamic complex system is unpredictable.>

I totally agree. That is basically why I feel trying to do a simple, closed loop model of the economy to predict how it will behave under various mathematical conditions is rather fruitless.

Are you familiar with Perceptual Control Theory and its negative feedback loop struture to explain all human behavior all the time? Do you believe that human behavior is also a dynamic complex system? How did you find this forum?

<The development of Chaos Theory over the last couple of decades has
provided a good insight into how dynamic systems behave. It appears
they always settle into a steady state where they are relatively
unaffected by a certain amount of change. But, if a change exceeds
some critical level, the system will act chaotically for a short time
and then settle into a new steady state that can act quite
differently from the way it acted before.>

I totally agree. I am a management systems specialist. I make my living by intentionally perturbing a steady state system to force it to a new and improved equilibrium state. And, the transition can be chaotic.

<Economic history is full of examples of these unpredictable changes
of state. So, any economic modeler should be thoroughly conversant
with Complexity Theory before embarking upon any models of prediction.>

I doubt if our three main US economic modelers (Trevor Powers, his son Bill Powers and Rick Marken) will agree. Do you have any idea who these people are? The latter two will probably be over you like a wet towel (Trevor is deceased).

<Note: in fact you can control dynamic complex systems, by making use
of the fact that they change into different steady states after an
external change. But, as you can never predict what will happen in
the new steady states, you have to have a mechanism in place that
allows you to make sure the jumps into new steady states always lead
to an improvement. Biological evolution is based upon this strategy.>

I agree. While a system is stable, within limits, one can predict the future behavior of interrelated variables within limits with a good model. You can also experiment with changes in the current system to see how it works best. I suspect that is more what our “amateur” economists would like to do. In other words, the model would be accurate only under limited conditions.

I personally don’t see any evidence of biological evolution of species if that is what you meant. Feel free to write to me privately about that.

Thanks for your contribution. Welcome to CSGNet.

[From Bill Powers (2004.03.02.0947 MST)]

Rick Marken (2004.03.01.2015)]

This is an observational fact, not a prediction of a model.

Of course. Same as the observational fact that there is a strong
negative relationship between (invisible) disturbance and handle
movement and little or no relationship between (visible) cursor and
handle movement.

I didn't say that quite right. I meant that this observation is simply the
way one component of the model, a typical manager, happens to be organized
(to produce changes in investment as a function of changes in the GDP).
There is no theoretical reason that a typical manager should behave that
way. We could postulate that typical managers have a different
organization, for example one that increases investment when the manager
wants to see an increase in business activity. There are other
possibilities -- perhaps the typical manager increases investment spending
when machinery begins to wear out and production falls off, or when there
is a high demand for the product but not enough machinery to produce all
that could be sold or keep a sufficient number of workers busy.

So my point was that we could never deduce from a model what a manager's
policy would be. All we can do is plug in various policies, and see what
the resulting behavior of the economy is. If we happen to know that most
managers think that investment drives growth, we could see what will happen
if they act according to that belief. And we could see what would happen if
they believed something else.

Best,

Bill P

[From Peter Small (2004.03.02)]

Hello Kenny,

Yes, I am new to the list. I joined in order to get some feedback on
ways to describe the application of biological strategies to business
and information technology.

Unfortunately, it is very hard to describe the concepts related to
complex systems. It involves ideas that most people have never come
across before and requires them to adopt a completely new mind set.
As you probably appreciate, this is very very difficult.

The approach I'm adopting is to start with an abstract model (most
people are put off by this straight away, but I can see no other way
to do it). It starts something like this....

···

-----

" ...it is necessary to first shake off all the preconceived ideas
that have been programmed into our minds by conventional education.
To do this we have to go back almost a century (1909), to an abstract
model first proposed by the great German mathematician, David Hilbert
(1862-1943). He came up with the idea of a space with an infinite
number of dimensions.

This sounds ridiculous, because it doesn't seem possible that anyone
can visualize a space with infinite dimensions, but, dimensions can
also be called parameters. Every object and system can be described
in terms of its parameters. So, if you put every conceivable object
or system into a space, that space could be described as having a
total number of dimensions equivalent to the total number of
parameters that are needed to describe all the objects it contains.

How this creates an order in this space can be imagined if you take
any single parameter and imagine every item with that same parameter
as being strung out in a line along it. For example, take the
parameter "glass". All the objects in the space that contain glass
would be strung out along this "glass" line.

This would apply to all parameters, so you can think of the space as
being crisscrossed by an infinite number of parameter lines that can
intersect with one another. Wherever a group of these lines meet at a
common point the parameters and their values will be describing a
unique object or system.

The general idea is that if a Hilbert space has an infinite number of
parameters (or dimensions), every possible object or system will be
present somewhere in this space. Their positions determined by the
points at which their descriptive parameters intersect.

Hilbert himself described this space by pointing to a glass of beer
and explaining that it exists in this space at a place where the
parameters describing its shape, size, materials and content
intersect. If you move the glass inside the space to where the
content parameter is water instead of beer, you would have a glass of
water. If the glass was moved to a parameter where the material was
pewter instead of glass, you'd have a pewter mug full of water. He
explained how by moving this object around in this parameter space
you could get it to change into a beer mat, a chair, a table, etc.

The importance of this mental model is the paradigm shift it brings
about. Instead of thinking about what parameters you need to be able
to create an object or system, you can think instead of the perfect
object or system already being in existence. Then, all you have to do
is to move around in this space to find the parameters that describe
it.

Prototyping is based upon this principle. When you make changes to a
prototype you can think of the prototype as being moved around in a
Hilbert space to try to find the spot where its performance is
optimal.

This is how biological systems can be visualized as evolving. They
have a flexible architecture, which enables their parameters to be
continuously changed until they become optimally efficient. In other
words, they can be thought of as moving around in an infinite
parameter (dimensional) space to where their parameters are optimally
efficient for the purpose of survival and reproduction. If the
ecosystem or their competition changes, they simply move to another
position in the space where the parameters are more suitable.

The advantage of using this conceptualization is that it enables you
to contemplate the design of an object or system without having to
start with all the defining parameters, or even to know what it is
going to finish up like. "

----

As you can see, this is not the kind of explanations most people are
familiar with - but how else can you start to explain systems that
self-organize?

I'm experimenting with different ways to present these ideas and
trying them out on my web site. I think I'm getting about one in
every four hundred visitors to the site to understand what it is all
about :frowning:

Peter Small

Author of: Lingo Sorcery, Magical A-Life
Avatars, The Entrepreneurial Web, The
Ultimate Game of Strategy and Web
Presence
http://www.stigmergicsystems.com
--

[From Rick Marken (2002.08.16.2300)]

I see at least qualitative support for my prediction, made about 2 years
ago, that the regressive tax policies then advocated by the new
administration would produce economic stagnation (reduced growth,
increased unemployment, etc.). I was surprised when these regressive
policies were actually passed by congress but they do provide a nice
test of some _qualitative_ predictions of different macroeconomic
theories. My prediction was based on a closed loop theory of the economy
which sees regressive tax cuts as one possible source of leakage (money
placed in the pockets of people who cannot possibly use it for
consumption).

Conventional economists seem to assume that tax cuts will produce an
increase in economic activity because poor people will spend the tax
return and rich people will invest it. But this "open loop" view assumes
that investing will cause increased production even if there are no
consumers for the fruits of this production. And with a regressive tax
cut the rich get far more to "invest" than the poor get for consumption.

The open loop economists assume that economic growth is caused either by
production (trickle down) or consumption (trickle up). The closed loop
view is that these two aspects of the economy are linked in a closed
causal loop. Economic health requires a match between production and
consumption. Leakage is a disturbance to this match, which is
compensated for by reduced production and consumption.

I have heard talk recently of accelerating the phase in of the tax cuts
and possibly of making them more extreme (giving back even more money to
the wealthy). If this happens I predict an even more precipitous decline
in the economy (reflected mainly in unemployment which could get well
above 10% in the next year) unless it is offset by a large increase in
government spending (a la Reagan). Of course, such an increase will
increase the deficit which could lead to an increase in Fed rates and,
hence, the return of inflation (via autoinflation caused, paradoxically,
by the reduced money supply).

Anyway, I predict that the regressive tax and non-spend policies of the
current administration should have us looking at 1970s style stagflation
in about a year, unless the administration can kick start the economy
with a war on Iraq and a concomitant increase in defense spending.

Best regards

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
marken@mindreadings.com
310 474-0313

Closed loop economics

Rick and listmates,
I told my wife about this email.
She wants to know what closed loop economics would recommend to improve the
economy.
David

···

From: David M. Goldstein (2002.08.2355)
Subject: Rick Marken (2002.08.16.2300)
----- Original Message -----
From: "Richard Marken" <marken@MINDREADINGS.COM>
To: <CSGNET@listserv.uiuc.edu>
Sent: Saturday, August 17, 2002 2:11 AM
Subject: Closed loop economics

[From Rick Marken (2002.08.16.2300)]

I see at least qualitative support for my prediction, made about 2 years
ago, that the regressive tax policies then advocated by the new
administration would produce economic stagnation (reduced growth,
increased unemployment, etc.). I was surprised when these regressive
policies were actually passed by congress but they do provide a nice
test of some _qualitative_ predictions of different macroeconomic
theories. My prediction was based on a closed loop theory of the economy
which sees regressive tax cuts as one possible source of leakage (money
placed in the pockets of people who cannot possibly use it for
consumption).

Conventional economists seem to assume that tax cuts will produce an
increase in economic activity because poor people will spend the tax
return and rich people will invest it. But this "open loop" view assumes
that investing will cause increased production even if there are no
consumers for the fruits of this production. And with a regressive tax
cut the rich get far more to "invest" than the poor get for consumption.

The open loop economists assume that economic growth is caused either by
production (trickle down) or consumption (trickle up). The closed loop
view is that these two aspects of the economy are linked in a closed
causal loop. Economic health requires a match between production and
consumption. Leakage is a disturbance to this match, which is
compensated for by reduced production and consumption.

I have heard talk recently of accelerating the phase in of the tax cuts
and possibly of making them more extreme (giving back even more money to
the wealthy). If this happens I predict an even more precipitous decline
in the economy (reflected mainly in unemployment which could get well
above 10% in the next year) unless it is offset by a large increase in
government spending (a la Reagan). Of course, such an increase will
increase the deficit which could lead to an increase in Fed rates and,
hence, the return of inflation (via autoinflation caused, paradoxically,
by the reduced money supply).

Anyway, I predict that the regressive tax and non-spend policies of the
current administration should have us looking at 1970s style stagflation
in about a year, unless the administration can kick start the economy
with a war on Iraq and a concomitant increase in defense spending.

Best regards

Rick
--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
marken@mindreadings.com
310 474-0313