Live and Learn

[From Rick Marken (2007.07.02.1130)]

I hate being wrong. But I suppose its also nice to get things figured
out finally, even if it takes years.

Almost since I got into PCT I have been saying that the IV-DV approach
to research in psychology is invalidated by PCT. I recently submitted
a paper to American Psychologist making just this point. It was
rejected, basically for the wrong reasons. But what they did get right
was that PCT does not invalidate the IV-DV approach.

This is something Bill has been trying to get through my thick skull
for years but I've been defending against his criticism (like a good
control system) instead of listening and thinking. For some reason the
rejection of the paper along with Bill saying that maybe it wasn't
such a bad thing that it was rejected, given that I had the whole
IV-DV argument wrong, finally got it through my head.

IV-DV just means that, in an experiment, one variable is manipulated
(IV) while the other is measured (DV). PCT doesn't invalidate this
approach to doing research. It invalidates what certain IV-DV
relationships mean. In particular, when the IV is an environmental
variable (as it usually is in psychological research) and the DV is a
behavioral variable, then PCT says that the apparent causal
relationship between IV and DV is not what it seems, if the system
under study is closed loop. It looks like the IV is causing the DV via
the organism (and that's why psychological experiments are done; to
determine the causes of behavior). But actually what you are seeing is
the inverse of the causal connection between the DV and a controlled
variable (CV).

The methodological point that PCT makes is simply that you have to
consider the possibility that an observed relationship between an
environmental and behavioral variable is the result of a control
system acting (usually the DV) to protect a controlled variable from
disturbance (usually the IV) . And you can certainly use IV-DV methods
to determine whether a variable is controlled and, if so, exactly what
the variable is.

It's going to be a big project to re-write my paper; I thought it
would mainly involve a find and replace on IV-DV with Environmental
Variable - Behavioral Variable. But it's not that simple. It's going
to require some thinking -- and working, darn it. But I just thought I
would get the admission of my long term error off my chest.

Now I'm waiting for Ken Kitzke to show me that I'm wrong about the
existence of God. It could be a rough week.

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com

I just thought I would get the
admission of my long term error off my chest.
[From Bill Powers (2007.07.02.1400

MDT)]

Rick Marken (2007.07.02.1130)]

The pain of reorganization is temporary. I think we are now in
agreement.

Best,

Bill P.

[from Gary Cziko 2007/07/02 15:35 CDT]

[From Rick Marken (
2007.07.02.1130)]

. . . The methodological point that PCT makes is simply that you have to

consider the possibility that an observed relationship between an
environmental and behavioral variable is the result of a control
system acting (usually the DV) to protect a controlled variable from
disturbance (usually the IV) . And you can certainly use IV-DV methods

to determine whether a variable is controlled and, if so, exactly what
the variable is.

Rick, are you saying that there is a method, other than the “Test for the Controlled Variable” that can be used to discover controlled perceptual variables using traditional IV-DV approaches? If so, could you give an example of how it could be done. I am particularly interested in the case where the data is obtained by “casting nets” (obtained over lots of different individuals) rather than by “testing specimens,” the former being the usual IV-DV research method used in the social sciences.

–Gary

[From Rick Marken (2007.07.02.1420)]

Gary Cziko 2007/07/02 15:35 CDT]

Rick, are you saying that there is a method, other than the "Test for the
Controlled Variable" that can be used to discover controlled perceptual
variables using traditional IV-DV approaches?

No! I'm saying that the terms IV and DV are theory neutral. The terms
just refer to a manipulated (IV) and measured (DV) variable. When you
do the TCV there is always an IV and a DV. The disturbance variations
are an IV; you will usually measure the hypothetical controlled
variable (CV) as the DV. But, as Bill pointed out to me, I once did
the test by looking at the _nature_ of the function relating a
disturbance IV to behavioral DV in order to figure out what the CV was
(it's in my "Behavior in the first degree" paper, reprinted in _Mind
Readings_, where I determine whether area or perimeter of a square is
being controlled by looking at the relationship between disturbance in
the X dimension and compensating action in the Y dimension).

The problem is not with IV-DV research per se but with what you are
using it to do. If you are using it to determine causal relationships
in a closed loop system then you've got a problem. And, of course,
that is all that IV-DV research is used for in psychology. So there is
a sense in which it is OK to say that IV-DV research is inappropriate
in psychology _IF_ what you mean by IV-DV research is "looking for the
causes of behavior", where the IV is a possible cause of the DV. But
it is really not appropriate to say that IV-DV research is
inappropriate because (as I mentioned above) it is appropriate if used
properly (as in the TCV).

It's just all very difficult and confusing. I'm trying my darndest to
re-write my paper so that this is all clear. I do think that
conventional psychology's addiction to a particular methodology --
based on an addiction to the open loop model that underlies that
methodology -- is a problem for PCT cracking into the establishment.
But it's not really correct to say that its IV-DV methodology that is
the problem. It's really a particular way of using that methodology --
which is the way it's used in all the natural sciences as well --
where you are looking for causal relationships between environmental
and behavioral variables; that is the problem.

I am particularly interested in the case
where the data is obtained by "casting nets" (obtained over lots of
different individuals) rather than by "testing specimens," the former being
the usual IV-DV research method used in the social sciences.

My current feeling about that is that the usual IV-DV approach, when
applied to groups, is OK because you are using it to understand
groups, not the inner workings of individuals. I think of it as policy
research. If you find that drug A improves the health of a group then
I, as a policy person, would say "hand out drug A to the group as a
policy". Of course, if you know that a very small number of people die
from taking A then you might want to forget it or let people take it
voluntarily. But I think of it as being like seat belts, which, I
believe, are known to reduce fatalities at the group level. But just
in the last month I have heard two stories about individual incidents
where people were killed _because_ they were wearing belts. But I
would still go with the policy of requiring seat belt use, not because
it's best for any individual but because its best at the group level
and doesn't really inconvenience people much.

Best

Rick

···

--Gary

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com

[From Kenny Kitzke (2007.07.02)]

<Rick Marken (2007.07.02.1130)>

<But it’s not that simple. It’s going
to require some thinking – and working, darn it. But I just thought I
would get the admission of my long term error off my chest.

Now I’m waiting for Ken Kitzke to show me that I’m wrong about the
existence of God. It could be a rough week.

Best

Well, if you can admit your long-term error about something as complex as IV-DV, it should be a piece of cake for you to reorganize and realize that the God of your ancestor, Abraham, does exist. The evidence is overwhelming. :sunglasses:

While I will be happy to discuss that with you privately, I don’t believe it is appropriate to have such an expose on CSGNet. A late night dialogue with Dick R. and perhaps some others at the Conference seems as comfortable as my favorite slipper.

Kenny

···

See what’s free at AOL.com.

[From Rick Marken (2007.07.03.0830)]

Kenny Kitzke (2007.07.02)--

Rick Marken (2007.07.02.1130)>

Now I'm waiting for Ken Kitzke to show me that I'm wrong about the
existence of God. It could be a rough week.

Well, if you can admit your long-term error about something as complex as
IV-DV, it should be a piece of cake for you to reorganize and realize that
the God of your ancestor, Abraham, does exist. The evidence is
overwhelming. :sunglasses:

I was kidding, of course, about the existence of God. What I still
would like to hear, though, is _why_ you think the Bible is true. That
is more interesting to me than whether God exists (or, for that
matter, whether the Bible is true or not) because it is basically the
method of levels. When you ask "why" one is doing (controlling for)
something (like believing that the Bible is true or that God exists or
that PCT is a good model of human nature) you are trying to get to the
higher level systems (or, equivalently, the background point of view)
that is setting the references for those control systems.

So, again, why do you think the Bible is true?

My own impression is that the "Old Testament" Bible is a true
reflection of the goals of a small tribal group -- the Hebrews -- and
that the "New Testament" is a description of the principles of a
small, proselytizing faction of that group (the original Jews for
Jesus). Some of the events described in the Bible seem like they could
be historical (like the Kings David and Solomon, etc) and some are
most likely apocryphal (the captivity and Exodus from Egypt, for
example; there is no archaeological or scriptural evidence of this in
Egypt). Some things in the Bible strike me (the higher level me that
is evaluating this stuff) as very moving (Esau's welcoming home his
creepy brother Jacob, for example), very wise (Ecclesiastes) or very
good (Jesus' sermon on the mount). Other stuff strikes me as foolish
(the first 5 of the "Ten commandments", for example), ugly (some of
the recommended rules of behavior, like stoning disruptive children --
"I see you have chosen to get stoned") or just plain evil (such as
God's commanded genocide of the Canaanites). There is some great
poetry in there too (the creation myth is one of the greatest poems
even written, I think) and some super stories. So the Bible is a very
good book (especially in the King James translation), but it's not
Jane Austen, for crying out loud;-)

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com

[From Fred Nickols (2007.07.03.1454)]

Hmm. Not sure what to make of Rick's comment below. I recall choosing to get stoned a time or two.
      

From: Richard Marken <rsmarken@GMAIL.COM>

Other stuff strikes me as foolish
(the first 5 of the "Ten commandments", for example), ugly (some of
the recommended rules of behavior, like stoning disruptive children --
"I see you have chosen to get stoned")

Regards,

Fred Nickols

[From Rick Marken (2007.07.03.1210)]

Fred Nickols (2007.07.03.1454)--

Hmm. Not sure what to make of Rick's comment below. I recall choosing to get stoned a time or two.

> From: Richard Marken <rsmarken@GMAIL.COM>

> Other stuff strikes me as foolish
> (the first 5 of the "Ten commandments", for example), ugly (some of
> the recommended rules of behavior, like stoning disruptive children --
> "I see you have chosen to get stoned")

Oh, _that's_ what God meant!! As Rosanne Rosannadana used to say: Never mind;-)

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com

What I still

would like to hear, though, is why you think the Bible is
true.
[From Bill Powers (2007.07.03.1305 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2007.07.03.0830) –

I think we have to start one level above that. For me, the questions are
what constitutes evidence, and how we use evidence to decide anything.
Kenny says the evidence for the existence of God is overwhelming. So what
are the rules of evidence in this case? Is it sufficient to have a
feeling of conviction, a strong sense of “knowing” something is
true? To prove that a proposition is true is it enough to show that some
alternate proposition is false? Probably the best way to examine these
questions is to start with some evidence, and then look at how we get
from the evidence to the conclusions.

Another important question is whether these rules, once we agree on what
they are, are to be applied to all competing propositions. For example,
someone who says that a strong feeling that God exists is enough to prove
the case would have to say whether that would apply equally well to
someone else who has a strong feeling that God does not exist. Whatever
the rules, can all parties to the discussion use the same rules?

Best,

Bill P.

[From Rick Marken (2007.07.04.0940)]

Bill Powers (2007.07.03.1305 MDT)

Rick Marken (2007.07.03.0830) --

What I still
would like to hear, though, is _why_ you think the Bible is true.

I think we have to start one level above that.

I was just trying to start the process somewhere. I like your idea of
finding out from Kenny his idea of "what constitutes evidence, and how
we use evidence to decide anything". But I'll take anything as a
starting point.

I believe this discussion started with the aim of trying to get to the
essential difference between what is seen as a liberal versus a
conservative perspective using the method of levels. I don't know if
we made much progress on the liberal side, with me as the MOL guinea
pig. But we still have no volunteers from the conservative side.

I'm beginning to suspect that the difference between liberals and
conservatives may be that liberals are just people who _can_ go up a
level from their political point of view and conservatives are people
who can't (or won't). This would explain why the conservatives I've
met can't seem to even imagine alid beliefs other than the ones they
themselves have. Their political (and religious) references are at the
top of their hierarchy - simnply given. It would also explains why
liberalism is so much less prevalent than conservatism (at least, in
public discourse). Liberals are just inherently skeptical -- which I
think is an "up a level" kind of phenomenon -- even of liberalism.
Conservative just "know" what's right.

Best regards

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com

[From Dick Robertson (2007.07.04.1446CDT)]

···

From: Richard Marken <rsmarken@GMAIL.COM>
Date: Wednesday, July 4, 2007 11:36 am
Subject: Re: Live and Learn

I was just trying to start the process somewhere.

I like your idea of

finding out from Kenny his idea of "what

constitutes evidence, and how

we use evidence to decide anything". But I'll

take anything as a

starting point.

I believe this discussion started with the aim of

trying to get to the

essential difference between what is seen as a

liberal versus a

conservative perspective using the method of

levels. I don't know if

we made much progress on the liberal side, with me

as the MOL guinea

pig. But we still have no volunteers from the

conservative side.

I'm beginning to suspect that the difference

between liberals and

conservatives may be that liberals are just people

who _can_ go up a

level from their political point of view and

conservatives are people

who can't (or won't). This would explain why the

conservatives I've

met can't seem to even imagine alid beliefs other

than the ones they

themselves have. Their political (and religious)

references are at the

top of their hierarchy - simnply given. It would

also explains why

liberalism is so much less prevalent than

conservatism (at least, in

public discourse). Liberals are just inherently

skeptical -- which I

think is an "up a level" kind of phenomenon --

even of liberalism.

Conservative just "know" what's right.

Best regards

Two points: 1 Liberalism hasn't always been less
prevalent throughout history.
2 Not all who identify themselves as conservatives
claim that what they believe is the only true
belief. At least some don't have a position on
religion, but claim they don't want to see changes
in the economic-political sphere.

This whole debate between so-called liberals and
conservative nowadays seems to me to have undergone
some weird twists and turns. For example,
conservatives have for years in this country been
for small government, low taxes, "every man for
himself" in regard to health and welfare,
preservation of private property, and protection of
the environment.
Now we have had a president who enlarged the
government, and while getting a cut in taxes for the
rich, has brought about that every man, woman and
child in this country is under a load of debt that
couldn't be paid off by the median income for --what
is it? hundreds of years? He has also shaped the
supreme court in a way that leaves one wondering
whether anything is sacred about private property
any more, except for thr rich and powerful. Yet,
people who claim to be conservative are the ones who
have support these policies. ?? Only the "every man
for himself" policy seems to have been held to by
the president and his supporters, and even then with
at least pious declarations not to hold rigidly to
that position.

Best,

Dick R

Rick
--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com

[From Dick Robertson, 2007.07.04.1505CDT]

···

----- Original Message -----
From: Bill Powers <powers_w@FRONTIER.NET>
Date: Tuesday, July 3, 2007 2:12 pm
Subject: Re: Live and Learn

[From Bill Powers (2007.07.03.1305 MDT)]

Another important question is whether these rules,

once we agree on

what they are, are to be applied to all competing

propositions. For

example, someone who says that a strong feeling

that God exists is

enough to prove the case would have to say whether

that would apply

equally well to someone else who has a strong

feeling that God does

not exist. Whatever the rules, can all parties to

the discussion

use
the same rules?

Bill, that is the basic question. I wonder why
nobody else has put it that simply before.

Dick R.

[From Bjorn Simonsen (2007.07.04,23:45 EUST)]
from Bill Powers (2007.07.03.1305 MDT)

Rick Marken (2007.07.03.0830) --

What I still would like to hear, though, is _why_ you think the Bible is

true.

Is it sufficient to have a feeling of conviction, a strong sense of
"knowing" something is true? To prove that a proposition is true
is it enough to show that some alternate proposition is false?

I don't follow you when you talk about true and false. These words can be
used about objects and situations in our physical environment. If I
disregard quantum physics, it is possible to formulate hypothesizes
(meanings) about our physical environment. It is possible to exercise
experiments to try out our hypothesizes. If the experiments support our
hypothesizes we say our hypothesis is true. If one experiment don't support
our hypothesis it is false.

If there are living organisms in our environment and we talk about behavior
(not physiological behavior), nothing is true or false. That is because of
the purpose concept. Living organisms behave relative to their purposes.
Purpose has no meaning outside of biology.
Different people have different purposes.
Therefore neither behavior nor meanings are true or false. Of course there
are eloquent people expressing distinct meaning, but if they are not
explained by Newton's three laws, his law about gravity or Maxwell's
electromagnetic equations there are no rules of evidence. Therefore we can't
talk about true or false and living organisms.
Of course two or more people can agree about a meaning, even if it is false.

If you disagree, please tell me why stealing is a false behavior, or
killing.

bjorn

[From Rick Marken (2007.07.04.1500)]

Dick Robertson (2007.07.04.1446CDT)]

Two points: 1 Liberalism hasn't always been less
prevalent throughout history.

I just meant in public discourse in the US. I think the evidence for
this is the fact that conservative talk radio and "news" (like Fox)
have a much bigger audience than its liberal counterparts Maybe I'm
wrong, but the results of the last few elections (since 1980) suggest
that the liberal heyday in America (which lasted from about 1932-1944)
is over.

2 Not all who identify themselves as conservatives
claim that what they believe is the only true
belief.

I don't think any of them would claim it outright, perhaps. But I've
never yet seen a self identified conservative who seemed aware of the
possibility of other legitimate positions. Of course, this is an over
generalization based on my own limited experience.

This whole debate between so-called liberals and
conservative nowadays seems to me to have undergone
some weird twists and turns.

I agree. But my guess is that there is some kind of high level
difference between people who are willing to call themselves
"conservatives" and those willing to call themselves "liberals". I
don't agree with all the boilerplate liberal positions but I would
definitely say I'm a liberal. Neocons certainly don't agree with many
boilerplate conservative positions (balanced budget,
non-interventionist foreign policy, freedom from government
interference in private matters, separation of church and state, etc)
but they would definitely say that they are conservatives.

Only the "every man
for himself" policy seems to have been held to by
the president and his supporters, and even then with
at least pious declarations not to hold rigidly to
that position.

The president's most vocal supporters were self-identified
conservatives and they didn't make one little objection to his
policies until his public support went into the 30% range. Now they
are trying to make it seem like conservatism is fine, it's just that
Bush deserted conservative principles.

The only conservatives I've ever agreed with are the one's that were
liberals, like Teddy Roosevelt (though he did have a troubling
affection for war).

Best regards

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com

[From Samuel Saunders (2007.07.04.2302 MDT)]

···

On Wed, Jul 04, 2007 at 03:04:34PM -0700, Richard Marken wrote:

[From Rick Marken (2007.07.04.1500)]

> Dick Robertson (2007.07.04.1446CDT)]

>Two points: 1 Liberalism hasn't always been less
>prevalent throughout history.

I just meant in public discourse in the US. I think the evidence for
this is the fact that conservative talk radio and "news" (like Fox)
have a much bigger audience than its liberal counterparts Maybe I'm
wrong, but the results of the last few elections (since 1980) suggest
that the liberal heyday in America (which lasted from about 1932-1944)
is over.

>2 Not all who identify themselves as conservatives
>claim that what they believe is the only true
>belief.

I don't think any of them would claim it outright, perhaps. But I've
never yet seen a self identified conservative who seemed aware of the
possibility of other legitimate positions. Of course, this is an over
generalization based on my own limited experience.

>This whole debate between so-called liberals and
>conservative nowadays seems to me to have undergone
>some weird twists and turns.

I agree. But my guess is that there is some kind of high level
difference between people who are willing to call themselves
"conservatives" and those willing to call themselves "liberals". I
don't agree with all the boilerplate liberal positions but I would
definitely say I'm a liberal. Neocons certainly don't agree with many
boilerplate conservative positions (balanced budget,
non-interventionist foreign policy, freedom from government
interference in private matters, separation of church and state, etc)
but they would definitely say that they are conservatives.

> Only the "every man
>for himself" policy seems to have been held to by
>the president and his supporters, and even then with
>at least pious declarations not to hold rigidly to
>that position.

The president's most vocal supporters were self-identified
conservatives and they didn't make one little objection to his
policies until his public support went into the 30% range. Now they
are trying to make it seem like conservatism is fine, it's just that
Bush deserted conservative principles.

The only conservatives I've ever agreed with are the one's that were
liberals, like Teddy Roosevelt (though he did have a troubling
affection for war).

Best regards

Rick
--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com

I think Robertson is right about this. It was the "liberal" Wilson administration that got the US into World War I, the "liberal" Roosevelt adminstration that got the US into World War II, and the "liberal" Kenedy adminstration that got the US into Viet Nam ( I use liberal in quotes to indicate that they were considered liberal at the time, and would have called themselves liberal, although modern liberals might see them as liberal). All of these were opposed by "conservatives". It was only with the "new conservatives" as defined by Barry Goldwater in the 1960's and 1970's that "conservatives" began to embrace interventionist foreign policy, influenced by (at least according to Goldwater) the experience of World War II and the "lessons learned from that experience." In recent years, the "conservatives" have been more likely to advocate intervention, while the "liberals" have been less likely. It is not clear that "liberals" have abandoned interventionism, however, since many people currently considered leading liberals initially supported the Iraq incursion, and at least much liberal rhetoric suggests interventionist approaches to Iran and North Korea.

Another area where there has been something of a shift is in international trade. The Wilson administration advocated reduction or abolishion of import and export duties to encourage trade, finally proposing the income tax as an alternative source of revenue when "conservatives" argued that this would deprive the federal government of adequate income. With the conservative resurgence of the 1920's, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were imposed to limit trade (and some argue became a significant factor in precipitating the depression). In recent years, "conservatives" have become advocates of international trade, while "liberals" have drifted toward economic protectionist.

Churchill, in his "History of the English speaking peoples", asserted that, compared to Europe, the political spectrum in the United States was quite narrow, and completely contained in what would be considered the liberal range in Europe. Churchill likely had in mind what is now referred to as classical liberalism, essentially the position that is now called libertarian in the United States. As a libertarian (and a Libertarian as well), it seems to me that the current US liberal and conservative positions have each diverged from classical liberalism in the same way, by deciding that some issues are so important that they can't be trusted to individual decision making, and require imposition of the decisions of a small elite on the public, by force if necessary. The difference is that the elite for the conservatives is a financial/economic elite, while the elite for the liberals is an academic/intellectual elite.

Taking the example of the problem of providing health care for those who need health care but are unable to pay ( both "need care" and "unable to pay" need to be defined to make this discussion really fruitful, but since they have so far been introduced informally, I will leave them that way), the libertarian solution would differ from the liberal solution proposed by Markin in seeking a voluntary solution without use of government force (ie enforcement). I agree with Marken that there is a problem. To address this problem, I feel obligated to make donations to assist in paying for some care for those unable to pay. I feel obligated to advocate to others the need for their donating. Were I to believe that current charities are not properly organized to address the issue, I would feel obligate to become involved in altering the programs of some charities, or organizing new charities. I believe that with sufficient effort and persuasion, this approach can succeed in addressing the need for care. Decisions about what care is needed, by whom, how, and when would be made by those involved in funding and supporting the charities, and by those seeking care to the extent that they are able to select programs which are a best fit to their needs. Marken's liberal solution, in contrast, would obtain funds, by force if necessary, from everyone, whether they have been convinced of the need or not, in an amount determined by a small elite administering the program rather than by the individuals contributing, and would make decisions about what care should be available, and to whom, again by a small elite. If we assume that most people are selfish, and also are not susceptible to persuasion, then the "liberal" solution might be necessary; if most people are generous and can be persuaded by reasoned argument and evidence, then all that is necessary is hard work and dedication. Addressing the issue doesn't require a political change, but only a dedicated and concerned group of people.

I am sending this recluctantly, because I am not sure I have the time to continue this discussion as I should. I also am reluctant since Marken posed the issue as having only two alternative, continuing the health care system as it is today or instituting a single-payer system. As a libertarian, I find the current medical system deeply flawed, likely because of a series of unfortunate policy decisions taken during the 20th century which have had the cumultative effect of making medical care much less accessable and much more expensive then necessary, so I would definately not be an advocate of keeping the system as it is today, but that is a somewhat different issue from providing for those financially unable to obtain necessary care. Addressing distortions in availability and cost of health care involves some political issues, but those issues can be addressed independently of providing care to those in need.

Samuel
--
Samuel Spence Saunders, Ph.D.

Partner, West River Research Associates

Purpose has no meaning outside
of biology. Different people have different purposes.

Therefore neither behavior nor meanings are true or false. Of
course there

are eloquent people expressing distinct meaning, but if they are not

explained by Newton’s three laws, his law about gravity or Maxwell’s

electromagnetic equations there are no rules of evidence. Therefore we
can’t

talk about true or false and living organism. Of course two or more
people can agree about a meaning, even if it is false.

If you disagree, please tell me why stealing is a false behavior, or

killing.
[From Bill Powers (2007.07.05.1203 MDT)]

Bjorn Simonsen (2007.07.04,23:45 EUST) –

If I say that John stole the chickens, that statement is true if he did,
and false if he didn’t. If someone says God created the universe, that
statement is true if he did, false if he didn’t (and false if there is no
God in the first place). We are not talking about actions or things being
true or false, but about statements of theory or fact being true or
false.

The rules of evidence I speak of are simply the processes we use to
establish the reliability and reproducibility of observations, and to
test theories or explanations against observations once the observations
are accepted.

To test a theory (by the rules I accept), one provisionally accepts it as
a fact, and then deduces from that fact other observations that it
logically implies. If John stole the chickens, then the tape from the
surveillance camera should show John stealing the chickens. If the camera
shows someone else stealing the chickens, the theory is false. If there
is no camera or tape, then we simply can’t prove or disprove in that way
the theory that John stole the chickens. And if John can prove that he
was in Germany at the time the chickens were stolen, then the person
shown stealing chickens in New York in any tape that may exist is not
John, and John did not steal the chickens no matter how much the person
looks like John.

All evidence requires interpretation and reasoning, so there is nothing
infallible about true or falsehood. Facts vary a great deal in quality
and completeness; observations are subject to great or small
uncertainties, as well as biases in the observer. We just do the best we
can. We can argue about what is and isn’t a fact. We can think of
alternative theories that fit the same facts. To agree on conclusions
about truth, we have to reach agreement on what is observed, and on how
we reason about what is observed. We have to agree to perform tests that
will yield one result if a proposition is true, but a different result if
it’s false. And sometimes we have to agree on the Scottish verdict: not
proven.

All this is possible if we can agree on all these things. But unless we
are all using the same rules to test our theories and explanations,
neither agreements nor disagreements mean anything.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Fred Nickols (2007.07.05.0651 ET)]
      

[From Samuel Saunders (2007.07.04.2302 MDT)]

<snip.

Churchill, in his "History of the English speaking peoples", asserted that,
compared to Europe, the political spectrum in the United States was quite
narrow, and completely contained in what would be considered the liberal range
in Europe. Churchill likely had in mind what is now referred to as classical
liberalism, essentially the position that is now called libertarian in the
United States. As a libertarian (and a Libertarian as well), it seems to me
that the current US liberal and conservative positions have each diverged from
classical liberalism in the same way, by deciding that some issues are so
important that they can't be trusted to individual decision making, and require
imposition of the decisions of a small elite on the public, by force if
necessary. The difference is that the elite for the conservatives is a
financial/economic elite, while the elite for the liberals is an
academic/intellectual elite.

I think you're right. Everything I see suggests we live in an oligarchy, not a democracy. The musical version of Les Miserables has a song with a line that captures it nicely: "The swells who run the show." Welcome to the oligarchy known as the USA.

Regards,

Fred Nickols
nickols@att.net

[From Bill Powers (2007.07.05.0750 MDT)]

Samuel Saunders (2007.07.04.2302 MDT) –

I enjoyed your post greatly. I’ll bet Mike Acree is happy to have you as
an ally.

I am a Libertarian at heart (“get off my back!”) but have
problems with taking that position all the way to its logical
conclusions. It seems to me that not enough provision is made for the
spoilers, those who refuse to play the game and thereby make it necessary
to have laws, regulations, taxes, and all the rest. I do not approve of
arming the general populace, as I have met few people I would trust with
a gun (I met a deputy sherriff once who bragged that when people saw his
gun, they weren’t likely to argue with him over who got to a parking
place first).

If people were naturally inclined to behave as Libertarians, wouldn’t
that already be the social system? And if they’re not, how do you make
them change – and still behave like a Libertarian yourself?

Best,

Bill P.

I’m beginning to suspect that
the difference between liberals and

conservatives may be that liberals are just people who can go up a

level from their political point of view and conservatives are
people

who can’t (or won’t).
This would explain why the
conservatives I’ve met can’t seem to even imagine valid beliefs other
than the ones they themselves have. Their political (and religious)
references are at the top of their hierarchy - simply
given.
It would also explain why
liberalism is so much less prevalent than conservatism (at least, in
public discourse). Liberals are just inherently skeptical – which I

think is an “up a level” kind of phenomenon – even of
liberalism. Conservative just “know” what’s
right.
[From Bill Powers (2007.07.05.1750 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2007.07.04.0940) –

I think it’s risky to conclude that people who disagree with me must be
defective (though it’s often obvious to me that they are, since any
normal person would realize that I’m right). It’s very hard to imagine
that someone might sincerely believe in different system concepts, but
all you have to do is re-read some old Robert Heinlein stories to see
that this is very possible, even for someone who is highly intelligent.
Or read “Gravy Planet” by Pohl and Kornbluth, a masterful job
of protraying a system concept. “Coffiest, containing just a mild
alkaloid to assure customer loyalty.”

Well, aren’t yours? If not, I’m eager to be told what is.

OK, so how ready are you to give up these somewhat self-congratulatory
beliefs about the superiority of liberals? Do people who wave signs about
the environment in your face seem very skeptical of their own points of
view? Or does that make them conservatives?

I have speculated now and then that there are some people who just
haven’t got an eleventh level of organization, or who are unable to be
conscious of it. I, of course, am not one of them. So far I have been
able to recover from such attacks of hubris. I think the answers to all
these questions lie elsewhere.

How about this for a definition: A conservative is a person who asks,
“What’s wrong with making as much profit as I can?” and really
doesn’t know the answer.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Rick Marken (2007.07.05.0830)]

Bill Powers (2007.07.05.1750 MDT)--

Rick Marken (2007.07.04.0940) --

I'm beginning to suspect that the difference between liberals and
conservatives may be that liberals are just people who _can_ go up a
level from their political point of view and conservatives are people
who can't (or won't).

I think it's risky to conclude that people who disagree with me must be
defective (though it's often obvious to me that they are, since any normal
person would realize that I'm right).

Yes, I learn that every day, over and over again! I was just being my
usual annoying self, trying to provoke some annoying self-reflection
from conservatives.

How about this for a definition: A conservative is a person who asks,
"What's wrong with making as much profit as I can?" and really doesn't know
the answer.

I love it.

How about this for a definition of a definition of a libertarian: a
conservative who believes that all people are inherently good. And the
corollary definition of a conservative: a libertarian who believes
that all people (except business executives) are bad. And, of course,
the definition of a liberal: a person who believes that only liberals
are good;-)

OK, they don't have that nifty up a level thing. But I've got less to
work with than you do.

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
Lecturer in Psychology
UCLA
rsmarken@gmail.com