Of Blind Men, Elephants and the Economy/Talk Show I

CSGnet Archive CSG2011
1

[From Bill Powers (2011.05.19.1440 MDT)]

MODERATOR:
How would you verify that a working model of that kind of society is
behaving correctly – that is, in the same way the real society of that
kind would behave?

ANSWER: Adam Matic:

Basically, if the division of labor between human-like agents happens,
that means the model of the society fits the general
facts.

MODERATOR: Bill P.

How will you establish what the “general facts” are?

As you are going to construct the model, is it possible that the model
might not show division of labor? I guess the question is how division of
labor will “happen”? Are you going to design it into the model,
or will it emerge from the model as a consequence of its
operation?

Best,

Bill P.

2

[Martin Taylor 2001.05.19.16.34]

[From Bill Powers (2011.05.19.1440 MDT)]

MODERATOR:
How would you verify that a working model of that kind of
society is
behaving correctly – that is, in the same way the real
society of that
kind would behave?

    ANSWER: Adam Matic:

    Basically, if the division of labor between human-like agents

happens,
that means the model of the society fits the general
facts.

  MODERATOR: Bill P.



  How will you establish what the "general facts" are?



  As you are going to construct the model, is it possible that the

model
might not show division of labor? I guess the question is how
division of
labor will “happen”? Are you going to design it into the model,
or will it emerge from the model as a consequence of its
operation?

  Best,

A related question, perhaps the same question in different words.

How will different skills or abilities appear in the human-like

agents (control systems)? Will they be built into the initial
construction of the individual agents, emerge from the interactions
among control systems, or arise from reorganisation in the different
environments in which the different agents find themselves? Or
something else?

Martin
3

[From Bill Powers (2011.05.19.1550 MDT)]

MODERATOR: Accepts Martin Taylor’s added questions.

NOTE: a question calls for an answer relating to the same subject, but
doesn’t have to be literally a direct answer. The point is for the person
being questioned to direct attention to the area mentioned and notice
what thoughts, attitudes, feelings, etc. are really there.

···

MMT: A related question, perhaps
the same question in different words.

How will different skills or abilities appear in the human-like agents
(control systems)? Will they be built into the initial construction of
the individual agents, emerge from the interactions among control
systems, or arise from reorganisation in the different environments in
which the different agents find themselves? Or something
else?

4

[From Adam Matic 2011.6.19 0100 gmt+1]

MODERATOR: Bill P.

How will you establish what the "general facts" are?

AM:
I assume a general fact is that the division of labor happened at some
point in history. That it emerged as a superior form of production in
comparison to individuals taking care of all their needs for
themselves.

At first, there was the division of labor in a community - a tribe, or
a family of some kind (it might go far back to pre - homo sapiens
communities). That is possibly the reason a community formed in the
first place - to divide up their work.
Since the division of labor means that a single person does not
produce all that he needs to survive, it necessarily involves some
kind of trade - I'll go hunting if you stay in the cave, keep the fire
burning and tidy up a bit.

So, I'm thinking this means that more control variables should be
added to the model. Enough food is just one part of survival, there's
water, shelter, clothes, tools... and each of those could be further
divided.

BP:
As you are going to construct the model, is it possible that the model might not show division of labor?
I guess the question is how division of labor will "happen"? Are you going to design it into the model, or
will it emerge from the model as a > consequence of its operation?

[Martin Taylor]
A related question, perhaps the same question in different words.
How will different skills or abilities appear in the human-like agents (control systems)? Will they be built into the initial construction of the individual > agents, emerge from the interactions among control systems, or arise from reorganisation in the different environments in which the different agents
find themselves? Or something else?
MODERATOR: Accepts Martin Taylor's added questions.

NOTE: a question calls for an answer relating to the same subject, but doesn't have to be literally a direct answer. The point is for the person being
questioned to direct attention to the area mentioned and notice what thoughts, attitudes, feelings, etc. are really there.

AM:
The division of labor will have to emerge from the workings of single
agents, as I assume happened in human societies. I guess we can say
that there is no society before the division of labor. If every
individual can survive on his own, then he does. If not, he lives with
others who are willing to trade some of their time and skills for the
services provided in the community.

Different skills and abilities will be built into each agent from the
start - as if everyone was 'born' with different abilities.

Another thought I kept noticing as I was writing is that I rushed into
proposing a model. It's a long way from being functional.

bob hintz 2011.05.19
When we are thinking about trade, it is important to notice that both agents must have more of something than he needs and that the surplus items of one must be different from the surplus items of the other so that one's own surplus has less value to its owner than the other's surplus and vise versa.
bob

AM:
Yes, I agree. There has to be a surplus of one or more things and a
lack of one or more things in both sides in a trade.

Best
Adam

5

bob hintz 2011.05.19

I would propose that humans banded together because they were safer from predators (human and otherwise) in groups of families rather than isolated families.

bob

···

On Thu, May 19, 2011 at 6:02 PM, Adam Matić adam.matic@gmail.com wrote:

[From Adam Matic 2011.6.19 0100 gmt+1]

MODERATOR: Bill P.

How will you establish what the “general facts” are?

AM:

I assume a general fact is that the division of labor happened at some

point in history. That it emerged as a superior form of production in

comparison to individuals taking care of all their needs for

themselves.

At first, there was the division of labor in a community - a tribe, or

a family of some kind (it might go far back to pre - homo sapiens

communities). That is possibly the reason a community formed in the

first place - to divide up their work.

Since the division of labor means that a single person does not

produce all that he needs to survive, it necessarily involves some

kind of trade - I’ll go hunting if you stay in the cave, keep the fire

burning and tidy up a bit.

So, I’m thinking this means that more control variables should be

added to the model. Enough food is just one part of survival, there’s

water, shelter, clothes, tools… and each of those could be further

divided.

BP:
As you are going to construct the model, is it possible that the model might not show division of labor?

I guess the question is how division of labor will “happen”? Are you going to design it into the model, or

will it emerge from the model as a > consequence of its operation?

[Martin Taylor]
A related question, perhaps the same question in different words.

How will different skills or abilities appear in the human-like agents (control systems)? Will they be built into the initial construction of the individual > agents, emerge from the interactions among control systems, or arise from reorganisation in the different environments in which the different agents

find themselves? Or something else?

MODERATOR: Accepts Martin Taylor’s added questions.

NOTE: a question calls for an answer relating to the same subject, but doesn’t have to be literally a direct answer. The point is for the person being

questioned to direct attention to the area mentioned and notice what thoughts, attitudes, feelings, etc. are really there.

AM:

The division of labor will have to emerge from the workings of single

agents, as I assume happened in human societies. I guess we can say

that there is no society before the division of labor. If every

individual can survive on his own, then he does. If not, he lives with

others who are willing to trade some of their time and skills for the

services provided in the community.

Different skills and abilities will be built into each agent from the

start - as if everyone was ‘born’ with different abilities.

Another thought I kept noticing as I was writing is that I rushed into

proposing a model. It’s a long way from being functional.

bob hintz 2011.05.19

When we are thinking about trade, it is important to notice that both agents must have more of something than he needs and that the surplus items of one must be different from the surplus items of the other so that one’s own surplus has less value to its owner than the other’s surplus and vise versa.

bob

AM:

Yes, I agree. There has to be a surplus of one or more things and a

lack of one or more things in both sides in a trade.

Best

Adam

6

> MODERATOR: Bill P.
>
> How will you establish what the "general facts" are?
[From Adam Matic 2011.6.19 0100 gmt+1]

ANSWER: AM:
I assume a general fact is that the division of labor happened at some
point in history. That it emerged as a superior form of production in
comparison to individuals taking care of all their needs for
themselves.

MODERATOR: Is your answer that you will establish the general facts by assuming them?

-Bill P.

···

At 01:02 AM 5/20/2011 +0200, you wrote:

7

> MODERATOR: Bill P.
>
> How will you establish what the "general facts" are?

[From Adam Matic 2011.6.19 0100 gmt+1]

ANSWER: AM:
I assume a general fact is that the division of labor happened at some
point in history. That it emerged as a superior form of production in
comparison to individuals taking care of all their needs for
themselves.

MODERATOR: Is your answer that you will establish the general facts by
assuming them?

AM:
Well, at this point, it seems I have to assume a lot when creating the model and
just start testing the model to see if it is correct. So, I take the
assumption that the division
of labor can arise from interaction of agents designed so-and-so. Next
I need to check how good
the model of the whole society is, and that means I'll have to compare
observed data with model data.
Such data as statistics of price fluctuations, or documented effects
of a shortage of some goods,
or an increase in productivity.

If it fits the data, the model is good. I understand that would not
mean that there could be no other models that
can do the same.

Best
Adam

···

At 01:02 AM 5/20/2011 +0200, you wrote:

8

[From Rick Marken (2011.05.20.0800)]

> MODERATOR: Bill P.
>
> How will you establish what the "general facts" are?

[From Adam Matic 2011.6.19 0100 gmt+1]

ANSWER: AM:
I assume a general fact is that the division of labor happened at some
point in history. That it emerged as a superior form of production in
comparison to individuals taking care of all their needs for
themselves.

I don't know why Adam is trying to develop such a model. I hope it's
not for my sake because I have no interest in the origins of
specialization. I take the existence of specialization as a fait
accompli. I'm interested in the understanding the workings of an
economy which, which like all modern economies, has a high degree of
specialization (division of labor) in the production of goods and
services. In other words, I'm interested in understanding what Adam
Smith (in the "Wealth of Nations") was trying to understand. I am
re-reading Smith and I think he made a great start but went off the
tracks very soon when he took the market to be what is most important
about an economy.

Best

Rick

···

At 01:02 AM 5/20/2011 +0200, you wrote:

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

9

> MODERATOR: Is your answer that you will establish the general facts by
> assuming them?
>

AM:
Well, at this point, it seems I have to assume a lot when creating the model and just start testing the model to see if it is correct. So, I take the
assumption that the division of labor can arise from interaction of agents designed so-and-so. Next I need to check how good the model of the whole society is, and that means I'll have to compare observed data with model data.

MODERATOR: Remember, I'm asking you to look inside and see what you find, not to consider my question as if it's on a test and try to devise some good objective answer. At the moment, it seems that your goal is to make a model that will generate or at least demonstrate division of labor. Is that correct? Would it matter to you if the model didn't do that? What would you be able to do if it did produce that result?

Best,

Bill P.

10

[From Bill Powers (2011.05.20.1055 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2011.05.20.0800)]

>>> > MODERATOR: Bill P.
>>> >
>>> > How will you establish what the "general facts" are?
>>
>>>
>>> [From Adam Matic 2011.6.19 0100 gmt+1]
>>>
>>> ANSWER: AM:
>>> I assume a general fact is that the division of labor happened at some
>>> point in history. That it emerged as a superior form of production in
>>> comparison to individuals taking care of all their needs for
>>> themselves.

COMMENT: Marken

I don't know why Adam is trying to develop such a model.

MODERATOR:
Is this simply a statement of your lack of knowledge, or is it to be read as saying that Adam should not be trying to develop his model?

COMMENT continued:

I hope it's not for my sake because I have no interest in the origins of
specialization.

MODERATOR:

I will ask Adam for you: Adam, are you developing this model to satisfy Rick Marken's interests?

COMMENT continued:

I take the existence of specialization as a fait
accompli. I'm interested in the understanding the workings of an
economy which, which like all modern economies, has a high degree of
specialization (division of labor) in the production of goods and
services.

MODERATOR: Would this model depend on the observed specialization continuing into the future? Is there any reason to think it will?

Bill P.

···

>> At 01:02 AM 5/20/2011 +0200, you wrote:

11

MODERATOR: Remember, I'm asking you to look inside and see what you find,
not to consider my question as if it's on a test and try to devise some good
objective answer. At the moment, it seems that your goal is to make a model
that will generate or at least demonstrate division of labor. Is that
correct? Would it matter to you if the model didn't do that? What would you
be able to do if it did produce that result?

AM:
Yes, my goal is to make a model that will demonstrate division of
labor. It would matter if the model didn't do that. That would mean I
need to change the model until division of labor happens from initial
conditions and interactions of agents.
If it did produce division of labor, that means trading. I believe
trading could be analysed and compared to 'real' trading. If it didn't
match facts, back to the drawing table.
Basically, the ability of a single agent to 'choose' how much time and
effort would be invested in a certain task is a feature I really want
to accomplish. The division of labor is a test of that ability.

MODERATOR:
Adam, are you developing this model to satisfy Rick Marken's interests?

AM:
Well, my interest in modeling the economy was sparked on CSGnet and I
do believe Rick might find it interesting. I also believe a lot of
other people might find such a model interesting. If, of course, it's
a good and functional model.

Best
Adam

12

[From Rick Marken (2011.05.11.1120)]

Bill Powers (2011.05.20.1055 MDT)--

COMMENT: Marken

RM: I don't know why Adam is trying to develop such a model.

MODERATOR:
Is this simply a statement of your lack of knowledge, or is it to be read as
saying that Adam should not be trying to develop his model?

The former. The question arose for me because I think I am supposed to
be part of the audience for the model. And if this is the case, the
model Adam is describing is not relevant to my interests, in the
economy anyway. But I consider any PCT modeling to be worthwhile so
even if the model is not directly related to my interests in economics
I'm sure it will still be an interesting exercise in PCT modeling.

RM: I take the existence of specialization as a fait
accompli. I'm interested in the understanding the workings of an
economy which, which like all modern economies, has a high degree of
specialization (division of labor) in the production of goods and
services.

MODERATOR: Would this model depend on the observed specialization continuing
into the future? Is there any reason to think it will?

Are you asking me? If so, "yes" and "yes".

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

13

[From Bill Powers (2011.05.20.1225 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2011.05.11.1120)]

>>COMMENT, RM: I take the existence of specialization as a fait
>> accompli. I'm interested in the understanding the workings of an
>> economy which, which like all modern economies, has a high degree of
>> specialization (division of labor) in the production of goods and
>> services.
>
> MODERATOR: Would this model depend on the observed specialization continuing into the future? Is there any reason to think it will?

ANSWER: Are you asking me? If so, "yes" and "yes".

MODERATOR: What is your reason for assuming it will continue? Is it simply because it has existed in the past, or because there is something in the system that generates specialization?

Best,

Bill P.

14

[From Bill Powers (2011.05.20.1232 MDT)]

MODERATOR: Remember, I'm asking you to look inside and see what you find,
not to consider my question as if it's on a test and try to devise some good
objective answer. At the moment, it seems that your goal is to make a model
that will generate or at least demonstrate division of labor. Is that
correct? Would it matter to you if the model didn't do that? What would you
be able to do if it did produce that result?

ANSWER: Adam Matic:

Yes, my goal is to make a model that will demonstrate division of
labor. It would matter if the model didn't do that. That would mean I
need to change the model until division of labor happens from initial
conditions and interactions of agents.
If it did produce division of labor, that means trading.

MODERATOR: So producing division of labor is the means of making the model do trading, and therefor you will change the model until it produces division of labor?

If that is right, the next question is, what will be accomplished if you make the model do trading?

COMMENT AM:

Basically, the ability of a single agent to 'choose' how much time and
effort would be invested in a certain task is a feature I really want
to accomplish. The division of labor is a test of that ability.

MODERATOR:
You have spontaneously answered the last question, so now I may ask: what is important about having an agent who can choose the allocation of time and effort to be invested in a task?

Best,

Bill P.

···

MODERATOR:
Adam, are you developing this model to satisfy Rick Marken's interests?

AM:
Well, my interest in modeling the economy was sparked on CSGnet and I
do believe Rick might find it interesting. I also believe a lot of
other people might find such a model interesting. If, of course, it's
a good and functional model.

Best
Adam

15

[From Adam Matic 2011.05.20 2225 gmt+1]

MODERATOR: So producing division of labor is the means of making the model
do trading, and therefor you will change the model until it produces
division of labor?

If that is right, the next question is, what will be accomplished if you
make the model do trading?

MODERATOR:
You have spontaneously answered the last question, so now I may ask: what is
important about having an agent who can choose the allocation of time and
effort to be invested in a task?

AM:
It's important to have an agent like that in order to test the
interaction between such agents, to see what happens in various
conditions, to compare it to real interaction, to improve it to the
point it fits the data.
The ability to control the allocation of time in a way that best
satisfies one's various needs is, I think, essential for the emergence
of trade.

Best
Adam

16

[From Rick Marken (2011.05.20.1400)]

Bill Powers (2011.05.20.1225 MDT)]

> MODERATOR: Would this model depend on the observed specialization
> continuing into the future? Is there any reason to think it will?

ANSWER: Are you asking me? If so, "yes" and "yes".

MODERATOR: What is your reason for assuming it will continue? Is it simply
because it has existed in the past, or because there is something in the
system that generates specialization?

Well, actually, it might not continue if a sufficient number of
specialized producers are swept up by the Rapture tomorrow (there is
also a faculty get together tomorrow but I told them I might have to
leave early;-).

But barring supernatural intervention, I think a specialized economy
will continue because there are tons of things in the social system
that generate specialization: education trains for specialized skills,
industry hires for specialized skills, the existing infrastructure is
maintained by specialized skills, etc. Even in households there is
quite a bit of division of labor. Except for the odd survivalist (or
Norwegian bachelor farmer) there are not many people I know who can
produce what they need for themselves all on their own and the system
makes it quite difficult to survive in this way.

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

17

MODERATOR:

This is what I get so far:

The model will be changed until it produces division of labor

if division of labor is achieved it will allow for trading

division of labor is a test of the ability to allocate time and effort to tasks.

The last point seems like a digression. Logically my next question would be not about allocation of time and effort, but about trading, which seems to be the highest goal so far. If you allow for trading, what does that accomplish? I'm trying to get a picture of the way your project is structured: Do A to accomplish B; accomplish B to accomplish C, and so on. Can you sort this out for me? How are the means and ends arranged?

Best,

Bill P.

···

At 10:25 PM 5/20/2011 +0200, you wrote:

[From Adam Matic 2011.05.20 2225 gmt+1]

> MODERATOR: So producing division of labor is the means of making the model
> do trading, and therefor you will change the model until it produces
> division of labor?
>
> If that is right, the next question is, what will be accomplished if you
> make the model do trading?
>
> MODERATOR:
> You have spontaneously answered the last question, so now I may ask: what is
> important about having an agent who can choose the allocation of time and
> effort to be invested in a task?

AM:
The ability to control the allocation of time in a way that best
satisfies one's various needs is, I think, essential for the emergence
of trade.

18

[From Adam Matic 2011.05.20 23.15 gmt+1]

MODERATOR:

This is what I get so far:

The model will be changed until it produces division of labor

if division of labor is achieved it will allow for trading

division of labor is a test of the ability to allocate time and effort to
tasks.

The last point seems like a digression. Logically my next question would be
not about allocation of time and effort, but about trading, which seems to
be the highest goal so far. If you allow for trading, what does that
accomplish? I'm trying to get a picture of the way your project is
structured: Do A to accomplish B; accomplish B to accomplish C, and so on.
Can you sort this out for me? How are the means and ends arranged?

AM:
OK. I start with a model I think will produce the division of labor
and trading and change the model until that happens.

If trading between agents is done like trading between people, then
the model can be used to understand the mechanisms of the economy -
how exactly things like inflation, various price fixing, increases in
productivity, shortages of goods happen or how they affect other
variables.
It could be used as a teaching tool, for it could show vividly in high
speed what happens in various situations, and as a tool for
prediction, given some starting conditions.

Best
Adam

19

>> > MODERATOR: Would this model depend on the observed specialization
>> > continuing into the future? Is there any reason to think it will?
>>
>> ANSWER: Are you asking me? If so, "yes" and "yes".
>
> MODERATOR: What is your reason for assuming it will continue? Is it simply
> because it has existed in the past, or because there is something in the
> system that generates specialization?

ANSWER: From Rick Marken (2011.05.20.1400)

I think a specialized economy will continue because there are tons of things in the social system that generate specialization: education trains for specialized skills, industry hires for specialized skills, the existing infrastructure is maintained by specialized skills, etc. Even in households there is quite a bit of division of labor. ... there are not many people I know who can produce what they need for themselves all on their own and the system makes it quite difficult to survive in this way.

MODERATOR:
I interpret these comments as your reasons for not being interested in models of how specialization develops, and for instead accepting that it exists as a fait accompli. I asked if your modeling (meaning its validity) would depend on continuation of the specialization in the future and you said yes, it would. Now I understand you to be proposing a number of factors in the social system as it exists now that cause or maintain specialization. Is the intent of this answer to show that there is no need to model the development of specialization -- i.e., to show that it is already sufficiently accounted for and doesn't need further explanation in PCT terms?

I'm guessing. You know better than I do what the answer is intended to show.

Best,

Bill P.

···

Best

Rick
--
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com

20

[From Rick Marken (2011.05.20.1600)]

ANSWER: From Rick Marken (2011.05.20.1400)

RM: I think a specialized economy will continue because there are tons of
things in the social system that generate specialization...

BP: Is the intent of this answer to show that there is no need to model the
development of specialization -- i.e., to show that it is already
sufficiently accounted for and doesn't need further explanation in PCT
terms?

No.

I'm guessing. You know better than I do what the answer is intended to show.

Yes, I do:-)

Best

Rick

···

On Fri, May 20, 2011 at 3:28 PM, Bill Powers <powers_w@frontier.net> wrote:
--
Richard S. Marken PhD
rsmarken@gmail.com
www.mindreadings.com