Evangelical Control Theory

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.23.2018 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2004.05.23.1700)]

Well, I spent almost my whole afternoon doing this so I thought I would
post it to show how one could go about modeling a budget and
consumption controller using a spreadsheet.

All I have is the Open Office spreadsheet. It reads the .xls file, but all
the computed values come up as Error 523. This error is "iterations of
circular functions do not reach the minimum change within the maximum steps
that are set."

If you could just write out the equations for each control system, with an
explanation of each step of the computation, I think I could interpret the
model. I can't figure out the equations from the spreadsheet -- there don't
seem to be enough of them. Have a heart.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.23.2026 NMDT)]

Bill Williams 23 May 2004 5:45 PM CST --

My principle objection is remains that value is not a substance. I
don't find a materialist argument convincing. Materialism as, I see it,
is perhaps the most , or at least one of the more naive forms of
idealism. Since you define PCT in terms of a materialist conception of
the world, I don't find PCT convincing.

I don't know what all those philosophical "isms" mean, but I'll try to
answer at least one or two of your objections.

My primary axiom is that experience is at the bottom of everything: the
world as it appears to us. Another way of saying this, perhaps a bit
sloganish, is "It's all perception." The point of all sciences is to
explain experience, and experience is the totality of what we perceive.

My preferred method of explaining experience is to construct models of what
might exist in reality that would account for the experiences we have. For
explaining properties of the part of this world that appears to be outside
us, I prefer the models of physics, engineering, and (despite considerable
ignorance) chemistry. These models are highly predictive and mutually
consistent with each other; they have great explanatory power with respect
to interactions in the "external" world. I use quotes because I recognize
that internal and external are themselves perceptual categories. However,
they are useful categories when it comes to physical theories and models.

I simply don't find your materialist preconceptions helpful.

I don't see how that applies to me, since I recognized from the start there
there is only the world of experience, which contains the so-called
material world as well as the so-called mental world, as well as all the
things we think and feel about these worlds. I take reality to be what we
experience. When we try to explain the things we observe, we often have to
guess at mechanisms we can't observe (like electrons and quarks). Perhaps
what makes you think of me as a materialist (if I guess correctly what that
term means) is that I use physical models and neurological models as a
basis for explaining how human beings work. But I recognize that these are
as-if models, not reports on things unseen that somehow, magically, I can see.

My concern is to make all the models we use consistent with each other and
with observations. That, I think, is the approach that has made all of the
successful sciences work as well as they do.

  In my opinion,
an adaquate economic theory, or any theory of the social process requires a
pluralist rather than a monistic conception of the process of valuation. As
best I can judge a monistic conception of value theory generates familiar
and characteristic mistakes in application.

I don't know what "pluralist rather than a monistic conception of the
process of valuation" means.

> There is, as you are aware, also a PCT theory of values.

Of course. Not only am I aware that there is such a thing, but I also am to
some extent familar with the errors which it contains. The PCT theory of
values, isn't one that I need to consider adopting.

I'd appreciate an explanation of that conclusion. It's a bit alarming! what
errors? I'd like to correct them.

> I don't know if it's the one you're searching for.

However, to correct a possible misapprehension on your part-- No, a
monistic theory of value is not what I "am searching for" if, that is, I was
in the process of searching . The way you treat values is so inchooherent
that it really isn't worth my thinking about adopting.

Incoherent? That's even more alarming. Could you explain in what way it's
incoherent? I really would like to avoid being incoherent.

>
> There are two ways to consider value.

Actually there are lots more ways of thinking about this than you might
suppose.

Did I say there were ONLY two ways? Put your glasses on.

One is to say that something is
> valuable if an organism adjusts its reference level for that thing to a
> high setting. The other is to say something is valuable if it objectively

Notice the influence of positivism here. What function "objective function"
does the use of "objectively" serve in this sentence?

By "objective" I mean "reliably observable by more than one person." We can
observe fairly reliably that ingesting arsenic is not good for a person, so
if the person puts a high value on ingesting arsenic, he is not likely to
survive much longer. This is opposed to things which are less subject to
public agreement -- for example, setting a high reference level for being
"good". Nobody else can see what you mean by "good," so there is no way to
reach consensus.

These matters are not much influenced by positivism or naive realism. They
are simply statements on which people can reach agreement by public means.
Whether they refer to some "real reality" or only to a collection of
subjective perceptions does not have to be settled (a good thing, since it
can't be settled).

   None. The sentence
would functionally mean the same if the word is removed. So, what function
does the word "objectively" serve?

It is a notification that we are using the physics-neurology-chemistry
genre of models, rather than other less well developed models. It means we
are talking about observations on which different people can reliably agree.

It serves an ideological function of
announcing that the discussion is being held in terms of an idealistic
philosophic conception known as "materialism." I can do without
materialism.

OK, do without it. I've never been particularly attached to it, either,
because it ends in "ism."

> promotes the survival of the organism. Obviously, organisms can set high
> reference levels for things that are objectively

Notice the influence of positivism here. What function "objective function"
does the use of "objectively" serve in this sentence? None. The sentence
would functionally mean the same if the word is removed. So, what function
does the word "objectively" serve? It serves an ideological function of
announcing that the discussion is being held in terms of an idealistic
philosophic conception known as "materialism." I can do without
materialism.

If you can keep repeating yourself, so can I. I do not use "objectively" in
any ideological sense. I merely mean to indicate that more than one person
can observe something, mostly things in the part of experience we agree to
call "outside ourselves." To say that something is objectively bad for an
organism is to say that anyone could observe the evidence, such as the
death of the organism from poisoning. This is in contrast with saying that
something is subjectively bad, meaning that the person who thinks it is bad
may be the only person who does, and nobody else can see why.

> I think the general evolutionary position is the one to use here.

I agree, as long as objectivism, materialism, and physicalism are not
introduced as implicit assumptions.

Fine, I trust that I am not doing so, since I don't know what the official
positions of each point of view would be. Or care.

> We can
> say that those organisms that have survived are those that learned to set
> high reference levels for things that are actually good for them, and low
> reference levels for things that are actually bad for them, where good and
> bad in the sense intended are defined by survival of a species and failure
> to survive. the reference signals specify the values that direct the
> organism's behavior.
>
> This allows us to use reference levels as the operating definition of
> value,

We part company here. I would define "value" in terms of consequences. Any
particular reference level may have good or bad consequences. So, I do not
agree with your definition of value.

I also define value in terms of consequences. It is, in fact, the
consequences of acts that are valued, not (most often) the acts themselves.
And of course those are perceptual consequences. Furthermore, a given
perceptual consequence can be given varying values at different times; the
taste of salt is valued highly by a hot thirsty man, but not by a man who
has just eaten a couple of ounces of salt. What PCT does is explain the
process of valuing in terms of comparing a perception with a reference
level: comparing what _is_ being perceived with the amount of that
perception one _wants to be_ perceiving.

Setting a reference level at one level of organization can affect
perceptions at higher levels so as to bring them closer to their reference
levels, or can have the opposite effect. Control systems are organized at
every level to make sure that lower-level reference signals are not set so
as to cause higher-level error -- to the extent possible.

with the understanding that organisms generally set reference levels
> as appropriate for survival.
>
I would agree that typically this is what organisms in fact do. However,
typically, isn't good enough to serve as a foundation definition.

Of course it's good enough, you silly man, you just don't have an adequate
grasp of this subject. (I think I'm beginning to catch on to your mode of
argumentation -- how was that?).

> >Here is point where we part company-- that is "What is it that is going
> >on behind the numbers that are used?" Is there a substance? Or, is
> >there anything that can be said to be "genuinely real" involved. My
> >answer would be that there is no "substance" but there might be a reality.

I don't know whether you consider a neural signal to be a "substance." If
you do, then I plead guilty to whatever you're accusing me of. I use the
neurological model in explaining how it is that we seem to have brains
(that is, other people seem to have them -- I've never seen mine), and why
it is that having a well-functioning brain seems to be so important in
human affairs, and so on. This model is consistent with much of experience
and will probably become more so.

> I think you are reading more philosophical depth into my statement than I
> intended.

Perhaps, however, as I percieve it , you are expounding a view that is
lacking in sufficient depth to serve as an adaquate basis for a viable
theory of value.

That's so tantalizing -- to be told it lacks sufficient depth, without any
indication of what might amount to sufficient depth.

When I say there has to be something going on beneath the
> numbers, I mean that the number representing the output of the control
> system model has to stand for some actual process by which (in this case)
> the consumption control system affects the environment so as to maintain
or
> change the current rate of consumption.

Where we seem to disagree is in part located in the above in which you say,
"some actual process." I would agree that there being "some actual
process." Where I would disagree is a matter of what and how that "actual
process" is to be specified. There are I believe good reasons to reject a
substance theory of value, and a monistic conception of reality. I will
return this point below when you agrument touches on this point again.

If you refuse to use physical models, I don't know how you manage to say
anything useful about what the rest of us call physical processes, like
controlling.

>The output action of the system
> resulots in executing transactions at a certain rate, entailing spending
> money at a certain rate and receiving goods are the corresponding rate
> (spending rate divided by average price per good). The actual output
> variable can thus be identified as the rate of spending money, which takes
> place in the environment of the control system. This action affects the
> environment so as to cause goods to appear in the consumer's inventory.
>
> So far this has nothing to do with value.

You have already introduce the notion of "goods." So, your claim that
nothing so far has anything to do with value would appear to be
contradictory.

No, you've simply misunderstood how I use "goods". I could have said
"items". The process of obtaining items from a store is a mechanical one of
paying money and receiving the items. I can do that without valuing the
"good" at all -- if I'm running an errand for someone else, the process of
obtaining the good works the same way as it would if I were buying it for
myself. We can surely describe that part of the control loop separately
from the rest of the loop.

>The subject of value comes up
> when we ask why this entity is acquiring goods.

No, you already introduced value before this point. You can not talk about
goods, not consistently at least, without getting into the value issue.

Of course I can if I am using the word "good" to indicate items in a store,
without saying what value I personally put on them. Let's not confuse that
meaning of "good" with the other meanings.

There is much in what you say above that I am in agreement with. I've been
aware of this for quite some time. I wasn't as you say "searching" for such
a conception. I have been familiar with these conceptions for for a decade
or two and I continue to find them valuable.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that there was some conception with which you
were not already completely, totally, exhaustively familiar.

There are enough of them that if they are all kept close to particular
values, chances are that the physical organism is working properly in all
important regards.

"Physical organism" seems redundant to me, and thus seems to me to be
introducing an ideological twist into the discussion.

Perhaps I should have said "physiological" or "somatic" to show I was
thinking of the states of the organ systems and other things at that level,
as opposed to the states of the signal-handling systems of the brain.

>More to the point, any deviations of these basic variables from
> what we may as well call their "intrinsic reference levels" indicates that
> something is going wrong that needs to be fixed.

Usually this is the case.

I have not tried to
> propose every possible way in which "intrinsic errors" of this kind might
> be corrected, but have focused on one basic and especially powerful method
> that I call "e. coli reorganization." This process alters the organization
> of the brain at random, and ceases to alter it only when all intrinsic
> variables are once again at their respective intrinsic reference levels.
> Those intrinsic reference levels, of course, are a product of the
evolution
> of the species.
>
Right. And, I think in almost all most all of the above you are making a
useful point.

> So I have proposed a mechanism by which the actual, objective

Here, in the use of "objective" it appears to me that you are introducing a
slant into the argument which is unnecessary.

Don't jump out of your skin every time I happen to use a word that's loaded
for you. As I said, I use words like "actual" and "objective" to refer to
things observable, reliably, by more than one person. We all know, of
course, that we are just comparing perceptions (as best we can through
communication), but it gets very tiresome to keep saying that all the time.
Not only that, but continually attaching qualifiers to what we say is
paralyzing; we get into deeper and deeper layers until the original subject
is lost.

I am not an "objectivist."
You could omit "actual" and "objective." Would , or how would, doing so
change the meaning of the sentence?

Since I was talking about the "actual, objective needs of the organism", I
meant to indicate the needs which, as far as we can ascertain and agree,
must be met for the organism to survive or maintain good health. This
doesn't mean that we have some magical way of observing directly what is
really needed by an organism. It is a conclusion drawn from applying
whatever model of the organism is appropriate to what we perceive of the
organism. If it's a good model it will hold up to testing.

There is a sense in which I agree with you about the character and nature of
needs. I think your system provides the best explaination of this that is
availible. I don't think, however, that it is useful to describe this
structure of behavior in terms of "objective needs." Your talk about
"objective needs" is in my view a unnecsessary injection of a materialist
ideology.

Only if you insist, over my objections, on interpreting it that way. Or are
you saying that your interpretation is objectively correct? I am using the
best models I know about in the best way I can. What is ideological about that?

The term "objective" which you use here is a misnomer. The "needs" are not
in fact all needs for objects.

Of course not. A person needs to be in an environment with a temperature
high enough to support life (given the equipment available). Temperature is
not an object, yet I claim that this is an objective observation: your
"reasonable man" would agree that the person needs a high enough
temperature, and that is what I mean by objective. This is opposed to
subjective needs, which are seldom critical for survival when not met.

Some of the needs are for relationships.

Yes, and any of the other 10 levels of perception I have defined. But there
are subjective and objective needs for relationships. I objectively need
you to hold up the other end of the sofa we are moving; I subjectively need
you to be civil about it. Anyone can tell that we must work together in the
right geometric relationship to move the sofa, but there could be
substantial disagreement about the need for civility -- what _I_ call
civility. Since it's _all_ perception, any type of experience can be used
for an example.

One of the reasons that I do not use the caption PCT is that I have been
aware of how you conceive of PCT in physical terms.

Do you have a better version that is still consistent with the models of
the physical sciences and neurology? Or do you reject physics models,
op-amps and all?

There is, of course, a physical aspect to control theory, but this
physical aspect can be thought of without bringing in a monistic,
objectivist, philosophic world view.

I don't know what these technical terms mean, but I strongly suspect that
they don't apply to me.

A reference signal is (if the model is correct) a real physical thing inside
a brain, not an abstract concept.

I do not mean to be disrespectful in anyway. However what you are saying
here does not appear to me to be useful. This statement in my view is
precisely what a positivist philosophic stance requires. I simply don't see
any reason for you to place your work in a positivist context.

I mean, of course, that we should model it as a physical neural signal in a
brain, and not as some magical or mystical or disembodied ectoplasm
floating in some vague imaginary space. I am always referring to models,
not to Real Reality. If you could accept that once and for all, I could
speak normally without hedging my sentences about with qualifiers and
explanations and exceptions, which not only lengthen sentences
unnecessarily, but bore everyone who already understands the context in
which I speak.

All concepts including "materialism" are concepts.

Well, some perceptions are of other kinds, but I agree that all we can know
are perceptions.

Furthermore, all concepts are "abstract."

I don't think we need to keep going over this ground. We agree.

>The actions by which we make the environment
> change to move our perceptions closer to their reference levels are not
> abstract, but ordinary physical actions

Ordinary Perhaps. But, there is no need for me to think about this is
positivistic terms.

Which model do you use to refer to what we call actions, if not the models
of physics (with some physiology)?

They consist of such simple processes as getting out
> a wallet and passing money across a counter,

Here is where I think your positivism gets you in trouble. "Passing money
across a counter" isn't simple. Thinking that it is simple when it is not,
creates a problem.

No it doesn't. Nit-picking creates the problem. Are you trying to tell me
that there are many higher orders of perception from which you can view the
act of passing money across the counter? Gee whiz, Bill, why didn't I think
of that?

I can agree in part to this. But, my agreement does not extend to the point
where the description takes on a positivistic interpretation.

I think you're hypersentive on this subject, as well as somewhat
hypocritical. There is no such thing as a description taking on a
positivistic interpretation, except to a positivist. That is a positivistic
idea in itself -- the idea that descriptions take on interpretations all by
themselves, in some Real Reality. You are speaking of things you infer from
what you read, using your private logic and private experiences. How can
you object to what you see as hints of positivism when your own opinions
are usually stated as objective facts?

I don't disagree with you that PCT provides a description of behavior in
causal terms or physical terms. What I am arguing is that the category
"value" is not a substance.

All depends on what you mean by substance. If you mean solid, liquid, or
gas, value is not a substance. Wrong model. If you mean that a neural
reference signal is a substance, using the neurological model, then yes, a
value is a substance -- but only _that_ kind of substance. It is still not
a solid, a liquid, or a gas.

Economics is not physics.

No, but it is describable within the same laws of physics that apply
everywhere else, to the extent it entails interactions in the part of
experience we call the physical world. Unless, of course, you have a model
that works better..

If the only world that you recognize is a positivist one ( I am not sure at
this point if you think of yourself as a positivist but it appears likely )
and the only world is a materialistic one then it would appear that you deny
the reality of values.

If you think that, you have not followed my reasoning at all. I think
values are completely real, and I have developed the model that gives them
a real place to exist, and a real mode of functioning that works with all
the other models I know about (that is, the models I believe). But of
course all of that is part of a _model_ of reality.

  You seem to be a monist. I think I prefer to be a
pluralist in the sense that it appears useful to me to think in terms of a
world view in which there are different kinds of values.

I think that there are as many different values as there are controlled
perceptions and people to control them. Reference signals, in my model,
establish and define values.

The accusation of "insubstantiality" doesn't frighten me. I don't think of
experience including values within the category of experience, in terms of a
monistic materialism. And, as far as I know all "conceptual spaces" are
immaginary.

Including yours? I agree, all models create an imaginary picture of
reality. That makes it even more astonishing when some models, like physics
and PCT, manage to make predictions of future experiences with detailed
accuracy.

There is, however, no place in your world for values-- not at least I as
think of values.

Maybe that's the issue right there. How _do_ you think of values? In your
conception, do they have some property that is not explained by modeling
them as reference signals (with the associated control system to give them
an effect)? What is missing from the idea or the experience of values that
is not captured in the concept of a reference signal with respect to which
perceptions are evaluated?

I hope we are not talking here about "objectively correct" values.

What you say has an appealing plausiblity. I would agree that "experience"
is connected to a reality or realities.

That is unnecessary in PCT, but of course we like to think that there is
some sort of reality Out There. I decided long ago that even if there is,
we have no way of comparing what we experience with that reality. All we
have is perception. That is why we have to use models as a way of trying to
understand what is likely to be Out There. "If the world were really
structured as this model is structured, then it would have to behave as we
observe it behaving." That is the Holy Grail that the modeler seeks: a
model that predicts exactly the relationships among observations that we do
in fact observe, neither more nor less.

But, experience is not a substance.

True, but "substance" could be an element of a model with which we attempt
to explain experience. Not all models work out equally well, especially
those that use terms as vague as "substance."

What experience is has yet to be worked out with any adaquacy, but I think
control theory can be helpful. Experience has an unavoidably economic
aspect to it. The orthodox conception of the economy has some problems--
such as the persistent problem of the Giffen paradox. And, control theory
provides what think is a good explaination for the behavior that is
considered paradoxical in the orthodox context. One of the things that
attracted me to the paradox-- besides its being a fundamental issue in
economics-- is that the behavior of an economic agent was obviously tied to
the calorie.

Yes,and one reason this is so satisfying is that it forms a link between
models that are otherwise mostly independent -- physiology, physics, and
neurology, as well as models in economics.

> my remarks concerning numbers had merely

"Merely?" Come on, it was a hard sell for stale snake oil. Fess up to
ideological creedo as a monistic materialist.

Nonsense. You are as objectively wrong as you think you are objectively right.

I acknowledge that when modeling it is neccesary to be explicit about what
it is that is being modelled and that I should be more careful in attaching
dimensions to the terms being modelled. However, "Economics is not
Physics." Positivism, objectivism, materialism have not provided an
adaquate basis for economic theory.

Why don't we just forget about those isms and just go on with the modeling?
We're flirting with angels on pinheads, and won't get anywhere with that.

I have found this discussion most informative. Not that I learned anything
new about control theory in the course of it. But, I never would have
suspected that you take a monistic materialism so seriously. I don't think
there is much of any chance of your converting me to your old time religion.
And, I am quite sure that you are not interested in considering switching to
what I view as a more adequate set of preconceptions.

Bill, for crying out loud, do you have to be so persistently superior and
offensive? Lay off. Let's get back to something productive. You don't need
to worry about isms when you focus on constructing a good clear model.
Don't you think you have anything to learn about that, either?

Best,

Bill P.

[From Rick Marken (2004.05.24.1000)]

Bill Powers (2004.05.23.2018 MDT)]

All I have is the Open Office spreadsheet. It reads the .xls file, but all
the computed values come up as Error 523. This error is "iterations of
circular functions do not reach the minimum change within the maximum steps
that are set."

Try finding the "Preferences" option in the Open Office spreadsheet. It's in
the "Excel" menu in Excel. There is a Calculation option under Preferences.
There are two settings for Calculation: Calculation, which should be set to
Automatic, and Iteration, which should be checked (selected) with Maximum
Iterations set to 1 and Maximum change set to .001. At least those are the
setting that I used and they work.

If you could just write out the equations for each control system, with an
explanation of each step of the computation, I think I could interpret the
model. I can't figure out the equations from the spreadsheet -- there don't
seem to be enough of them. Have a heart.

Sure. I'll try to write up the model as a set of equations and send it to
you this evening. But the whole point of the spreadsheet is to make it easy
for people to just run the thing and see how it works. Has anyone else tried
it?

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.24.1144 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2004.05.24.1000)--

Try finding the "Preferences" option in the Open Office spreadsheet. It's in
the "Excel" menu in Excel. There is a Calculation option under Preferences.
There are two settings for Calculation: Calculation, which should be set to
Automatic, and Iteration, which should be checked (selected) with Maximum
Iterations set to 1 and Maximum change set to .001. At least those are the
setting that I used and they work.

I get two columns of numbers and a chart with a single rising line on it,
bu,t the calculation cells still show Error 523. This may be because the
budget never comes to a reference level, so there is always a difference
between the values on one iteration and the values on the next. The
computation doesn't converge, as the error message explanation says.

I'm suggesting that we back up a bit and do models of just the consumption
part, and just the "budget" part, and then put them together with
interactions, and then see if we need a second-level system.

For the consumption model I suggest that the output variable should be a
rate variable, purchases per hour. A given purchase rate causes goods to
accumulate in inventory at that same rate, and also requires an expenditure
of money at the rate (goods per hour) * (price per good). We can ignore the
money for now while we get the consumption loop running. Let's call this
the "shoplifting" version. Purchasing at a certain rate moves goods into
inventory at that rate, so the environmental feedback function is a
multiplier of 1.

Depreciation is generally taken to be a constant fraction of the number of
items remaining, so just considering depreciation,

new_inventory := inventory - depreciation_rate * inventory * dt;

If the model is working right, the inventory should rise from an initial
value of zero to whatever the reference value is, along a decelerating
curve. This will happen for any rate of usage of goods, since we have not
discussed putting limits on anything yet. I'm assuming that the budgetary
considerations will set the limits, when we get there.

As I understand your model of the consumption process, it's not quite right
yet. Bill W's was right, but it was mixed in with a model of the money
controller that wasn't a control system yet. I'm hoping that if we can
concentrate one getting each phase of building the model right, we will end
up agreeing on everything and having a model that is correct as far as it goes.

Best,

Bill P.

···

> If you could just write out the equations for each control system, with an
> explanation of each step of the computation, I think I could interpret the
> model. I can't figure out the equations from the spreadsheet -- there don't
> seem to be enough of them. Have a heart.

Sure. I'll try to write up the model as a set of equations and send it to
you this evening. But the whole point of the spreadsheet is to make it easy
for people to just run the thing and see how it works. Has anyone else tried
it?

Best

Rick
--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

[From Rick Marken (2004.05.24.1410)]

Bill Powers (2004.05.24.1144 MDT)]

For the consumption model I suggest that the output variable should be a
rate variable

In my model oc is a rate variable.

A given purchase rate causes goods to
accumulate in inventory at that same rate, and also requires an expenditure
of money at the rate (goods per hour) * (price per good).

That's how my model works. First the model determines how much it would cost
to purchase oc goods (the calculation of rs), and then the model purchases
oc goods if rs< B (there's enough money in the budget).

Depreciation is generally taken to be a constant fraction of the number of
items remaining, so just considering depreciation,

new_inventory := inventory - depreciation_rate * inventory * dt;

Easy change to make. Right now depreciation, dc, just subtracts from
inventory,C, (C = C + ac - dc)

If the model is working right, the inventory should rise from an initial
value of zero to whatever the reference value is, along a decelerating
curve.

Yep. I get it now when depreciation removes a constant proportion of
inventory.

As I understand your model of the consumption process, it's not quite right
yet.

Other than depreciating by subtracting a constant (dc) rather than a
constant proportion of inventory I don't see what you think is not quite
right yet.

Bill W's was right, but it was mixed in with a model of the money
controller that wasn't a control system yet. I'm hoping that if we can
concentrate one getting each phase of building the model right, we will end
up agreeing on everything and having a model that is correct as far as it
goes.

I just dashed off the model for fun and to show how you can develop these
models fairly quickly using a spreadsheet (which saves a lot of the time
involved in developing the displays). Feel free to carry on the economics
modeling effort with Bill W. on your own.

Oh. Attached is an improved version with depreciation removing a portion of
existing inventory.

Best

Rick

ConsumeBudget2.xls (40.5 KB)

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

From[ Bill Williams 24 May 2004 10:50 AM CST]

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.23.2026 NMDT)]

>Bill Williams 23 May 2004 5:45 PM CST --

> My principle objection is remains that value is not a substance. I
> don't find a materialist argument convincing. Materialism as, I see it,
> is perhaps the most , or at least one of the more naive forms of
> idealism. Since you define PCT in terms of a materialist conception of
> the world, I don't find PCT convincing.

I don't know what all those philosophical "isms" mean, but I'll try to
answer at least one or two of your objections.

My primary axiom is that experience is at the bottom of everything: the
world as it appears to us.

OK.

Another way of saying this, perhaps a bit

slogans, is "It's all perception."

I think slogans, including "It's all perception." can be useful. I am
still encountering people who are caught up in the after math of
behaviorism. So, even though I avoid the use of PCT, or HPCT, it isn't
because I reject _much_ or even _most_ of a PCT or HPCT outlook.

The point of all sciences is to

explain experience, and experience is the totality of what we perceive.

I am OK with this.

My preferred method of explaining experience is to construct models of

what

might exist in reality that would account for the experiences we have. For
explaining properties of the part of this world that appears to be outside
us, I prefer the models of physics, engineering, and (despite considerable
ignorance) chemistry.

For most of what you usually do, I am sure that this makes perfect sense for
your.

These models are highly predictive and mutually

consistent with each other; they have great explanatory power with respect
to interactions in the "external" world. I use quotes because I recognize
that internal and external are themselves perceptual categories. However,
they are useful categories when it comes to physical theories and models.

Of course they are. I wouldn't think of denying this.

>I simply don't find your materialist preconceptions helpful.

I don't see how that applies to me, since I recognized from the start

there

is only the world of experience, which contains the so-called
material world as well as the so-called mental world, as well as all the
things we think and feel about these worlds.

But, then you go to talk about "concrete." I wonder where that came from?
Anyway, you say that you "recognize from the start" but this isn't the way
you frequently talk about this stuff, and I have to go by how you talk about
this stuff until you tell me differently. And, you are telling me, as this
discussion goes on that, you are using words that mean one thing to most
people in a way that is peculiarly your own. Nothing unusual in this, most
of us do it. But, it takes some effort to correct misunderstandings when
words are being used in ways that depart from their usual meaning.

I take reality to be what we experience.

Or is it that you take "reality" to be what _you_ experience? You may
consider this "nit-picking." I have never personal had nit, but if I did, I
would consider "nit-picking" to be important. And, at least in my view
what we have here is a genuinely significant question. However, there seems
to really be only two of here in this discussion. Martin is away doing
something else and not on CSGnet for the time being. So, there are two of
us. You have your habits and opinions and I have somewhat different habits
and opinions. And, we disagree to some extent about the validity of these
habits and opinions. You are making assertions about economic
subject-matter, a field that you distain and refuse to take the time to
learn what the words mean. So, you invent new meanings for familiar terms,
and you often equivocate when you use terms that you have redefined. When
you actually get down to the modeling, I think your habits and opinions
concerning modeling will enforce good practices. However, while we are
discussing this-- just the two of us -- an element creeps in of what you
refer to as "subjectivity." From my point of view, I see a lot of this
"subjectivity" in your exposition of "how economics ought to be done."
Because you are inexperienced in regard to economic subject-matter and
attempting to think things out from scratch, you often repeat mistakes that
have been made long ago. Frequently when you think that you are starting
"from scratch" what you are actually doing is taking up and attempting to
make use of some item of economic folklore that is a part of a larger
culture. Your dad's use of the under-consumptionist Leakages thesis is an
example of this. The reason I am pointing this out-- the element of what
you call "subjectivity" is that often these problems, like the leakages
thesis have already long since been considered and disposed of in a larger
culture-- larger than just the two of us. My point is that by not being
willing to consider this larger experience with economic issues, you have
chosen to take, in your own terms, a radically "subjective" approach to
building an economic model.

When we try to explain the things we observe, we often have to

guess at mechanisms we can't observe (like electrons and quarks). Perhaps
what makes you think of me as a materialist (if I guess correctly what

that

term means) is that I use physical models and neurological models as a
basis for explaining how human beings work. But I recognize that these are
as-if models, not reports on things unseen that somehow, magically, I can

see.

OK. However, the way you talk about what you are doing often provides a
contrary impression. Such as, for example, the talk about doing economics in
"concrete" terms.

My concern is to make all the models we use consistent with each other and
with observations.

We are in agreement in this regard.

That, I think, is the approach that has made all of the
successful sciences work as well as they do.

Sure.

> In my opinion,
>an adequate economic theory, or any theory of the social process requires

a

>pluralist rather than a monistic conception of the process of valuation.

As

>best I can judge a monistic conception of value theory generates familiar
>and characteristic mistakes in application.

I don't know what "pluralist rather than a monistic conception of the
process of valuation" means.

Consider the following passage:

Nussbum, Martha C and Glover, Jonathan. eds. 1995 _Women, Culture, and

  Development: A Study of Human capabilities_ Oxford: Clarendon

  Press

  Hillary Putnam p. 22O.

    maxims

    Pragmatists "... insisted that when one human being in

    isolation tries to interpret even the best maxims for

    himself or herself and does not allow others to criticize

    the way in which he or she interprets these maxims, or

    the way in which he or she applies them, then the kind

    of 'certainty' that results is always fatally

    tainted with subjectivity. Even the notion of 'truth'

    makes no sense in such a 'moral solitude' for

    'truth presupposes a standard external to the thinker'

      p. 22O.

Let me start this by saying again, because I think it needs to be said-- for

your sake-- I am not criticizing your very real accomplishment in applying

control theory to the phenomena of human behavior. However, as you

once told me, despite having invested some effort in the project you had

prior to encountering me you had been unable to find a way to develop

economic applications of control theory. I think there is a reason for your

not having been able to do so.

One obvious reason is that you refuse to become acquainted with the

literature of economics. Why? You explain this in terms of constraints

of time and circumstance. I am, however, of the opinion that the

actual reason has to do with your being unwilling, or perhaps unable,

to tolerate an encounter with other persons. So, you are stuck in a

radically monistic, physicalist, solipsistic stance. An explanation of

why you might have adopted such a position is readily available-- your

work hasn't gained anything approaching the recognition that it deserves.

So, what is to be done? You've chosen to strike out in a new direction,

and to take up the task of building an integrated theoretical version of

economics in terms of control theory-- all by yourself.

Consider what Charles Pierce recommends,

    "That systems ought to be constructed architechonically has

    been preached since Kant, but I do not think the full impact

    of the maxim has by any means been appreciated. What I would

    recommend that every person who wishes to form an opinion

    concerning fundamental problems should first of all make

     a complete survey of human knowledge, should take note of all

    the valuable ideas in each branch of science, should observe

    in just what respect each has been successful and where it

    has failed, in order that, in the light of the through

    acquaintance so attained of the available materials for

    a philosophical theory and the nature and strength of each,

    he may proceed to the study of what the problems of

    philosophy consists in, and of the proper way of studying

    it." p. 319.

  Murphey, Murray G. 1961 _The Development of Peirce's Philosophy_

         Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press

Read from your standpoint, what Peirce is recommending must appear to be

a joke. But, the road you have chosen is a much harder one. You ought to

consider that the success you had in developing the model of human behavior

contained in _B:CP_ was in part due to your fortunate encounter with a
control

system in the anti-aircraft system that you were assigned to in your naval

service. I am not in any way minimizing your personal traits of
intelligence,

energy and persistence-- but you drew upon a social / technical heritage
when

you carried out that work. Your exposure to economic thought, in contrast,

is rather unfortunate. In contrast to the procedure that Peirce recommends
you

refuse to make the effort to familiarize yourself with the rest of
humanities

efforts and the results of these efforts. I've described your approach to

economics as paranoid, and this is an unpleasant word, however, I think the

description is apt. paranoid in the sense that Hillary Putnam in the
passage

argues is the condition of all inquiry that proceeds outside a genuine

community.

A pluralist approach is one that accepts that there are other people in the

world. There is, in my view, a very real sense in which your conceptual

scheme does not appear to adequately recognize the existence of other

people.

> > There is, as you are aware, also a PCT theory of values.
>
>Of course. Not only am I aware that there is such a thing, but I also am

to

>some extent familiar with the errors which it contains. The PCT theory of
>values, isn't one that I need to consider adopting.

I'd appreciate an explanation of that conclusion. It's a bit alarming!

what

errors? I'd like to correct them.

See the extend passage above. Both the Pierce and Putnam passages
contain a message about the character of research that is solitary.

> > I don't know if it's the one you're searching for.
>
>However, to correct a possible misapprehension on your part-- No, a
>monistic theory of value is not what I "am searching for" if, that is, I

was

>in the process of searching . The way you treat values is so

incoherent

>that it really isn't worth my thinking about adopting.

Incoherent? That's even more alarming. Could you explain in what way it's
incoherent? I really would like to avoid being incoherent.

Sure, when you choose to be a solipsistic you become in your terms
"subjective" and the truth seems to lose it meaning. So, you end up
saying lots of stuff that you some times later regret-- in this sense you
have admitted to behaving in a way that is "incoherent." You don't
meet your own standards for behavior.

> >
> > There are two ways to consider value.
>
>Actually there are lots more ways of thinking about this than you might
>suppose.

Did I say there were ONLY two ways? Put your glasses on.

Since you only mentioned two ways, I thought I would be helpful and remind
you that there are more ways than you seemed to suppose.

> One is to say that something is
> > valuable if an organism adjusts its reference level for that thing to

a

> > high setting. The other is to say something is valuable if it

objectively

>
>Notice the influence of positivism here. What function "objective

function"

>does the use of "objectively" serve in this sentence?

By "objective" I mean "reliably observable by more than one person." We

can

observe fairly reliably that ingesting arsenic is not good for a person,

so

if the person puts a high value on ingesting arsenic, he is not likely to
survive much longer. This is opposed to things which are less subject to
public agreement -- for example, setting a high reference level for being
"good". Nobody else can see what you mean by "good," so there is no way to
reach consensus.

These matters are not much influenced by positivism or naive realism. They
are simply statements on which people can reach agreement by public means.
Whether they refer to some "real reality" or only to a collection of
subjective perceptions does not have to be settled (a good thing, since it
can't be settled).

> None. The sentence
>would functionally mean the same if the word is removed. So, what

function

>does the word "objectively" serve?

It is a notification that we are using the physics-neurology-chemistry
genre of models, rather than other less well developed models.

Less developed or not, Economics is not physics.

It means we

are talking about observations on which different people can reliably

agree.

Unfortunately, in this impoverished environment in which this discussion
is being carried on we don't have "different people" upon whom we can
"reliably agree" for confirmation or rejection, or just checking up on
stuff. In effect the discussion is being carried on between you in a begin
everything from scratch solipsistic stance and myself. I prefer to
adopt the position that some other people have thought about economics
and make use of their efforts.

>It serves an ideological function of
>announcing that the discussion is being held in terms of an idealistic
>philosophic conception known as "materialism." I can do without
>materialism.

OK, do without it. I've never been particularly attached to it, either,
because it ends in "ism."

Good point. But, among the most deadly of the "isms" is solipsism.
And, you are the most solipsistic person I have encountered.

> > promotes the survival of the organism. Obviously, organisms can set

high

> > reference levels for things that are objectively
>
>Notice the influence of positivism here. What function "objective

function"

>does the use of "objectively" serve in this sentence? None. The

sentence

>would functionally mean the same if the word is removed. So, what

function

>does the word "objectively" serve? It serves an ideological function of
>announcing that the discussion is being held in terms of an idealistic
>philosophic conception known as "materialism." I can do without
>materialism.

If you can keep repeating yourself, so can I. I do not use "objectively"

in

any ideological sense. I merely mean to indicate that more than one person
can observe something,

However, as evidenced by the nature of our discussion, it appears to me
that there is a distinct absence of other people who are in anything like a
position to make the sorts of judgments that you are talking about in terms
of "objectivity." This is an instance of a characteristic feature of the
way you approach issues, and it is an example of what I was saying about
incoherence.

mostly things in the part of experience we agree to

call "outside ourselves." To say that something is objectively bad for an
organism is to say that anyone could observe the evidence, such as the
death of the organism from poisoning. This is in contrast with saying that
something is subjectively bad, meaning that the person who thinks it is

bad

may be the only person who does, and nobody else can see why.

> > I think the general evolutionary position is the one to use here.
>
>I agree, as long as objectivism, materialism, and physicalism are not
>introduced as implicit assumptions.

Fine, I trust that I am not doing so, since I don't know what the official
positions of each point of view would be. Or care.

This "Or, care." is a prime example of what I am talking about in terms
of how you attempt to proceed in solipsistic terms. Read what Putnam
says, your self-description fits her description of the pathology of
thought
that is carried on in an context that is excessively solitary. As you say,
"You don't care." It is all too obvious.

> > We can
> > say that those organisms that have survived are those that learned to

set

> > high reference levels for things that are actually good for them, and

low

> > reference levels for things that are actually bad for them, where good

and

> > bad in the sense intended are defined by survival of a species and

failure

> > to survive. the reference signals specify the values that direct the
> > organism's behavior.
> >
> > This allows us to use reference levels as the operating definition of
> > value,
>
>We part company here. I would define "value" in terms of consequences.

Any

>particular reference level may have good or bad consequences. So, I do

not

>agree with your definition of value.

I also define value in terms of consequences. It is, in fact, the
consequences of acts that are valued, not (most often) the acts

themselves.

And of course those are perceptual consequences.

Sure, and I think that your slogan "Behavior is the control of perception."
makes an important point.

Furthermore, a given

perceptual consequence can be given varying values at different times; the
taste of salt is valued highly by a hot thirsty man, but not by a man who
has just eaten a couple of ounces of salt. What PCT does is explain the
process of valuing in terms of comparing a perception with a reference
level: comparing what _is_ being perceived with the amount of that
perception one _wants to be_ perceiving.

Setting a reference level at one level of organization can affect
perceptions at higher levels so as to bring them closer to their reference
levels, or can have the opposite effect. Control systems are organized at
every level to make sure that lower-level reference signals are not set so
as to cause higher-level error -- to the extent possible.

>with the understanding that organisms generally set reference levels
> > as appropriate for survival.
> >
>I would agree that typically this is what organisms in fact do. However,
>typically, isn't good enough to serve as a foundation definition.

Of course it's good enough, you silly man, you just don't have an adequate
grasp of this subject. (I think I'm beginning to catch on to your mode of
argumentation -- how was that?).

Have you by chance heard of a mirror? I think we are getting into multiple
reflections here.

> > >Here is point where we part company-- that is "What is it that is

going

> > >on behind the numbers that are used?" Is there a substance? Or, is
> > >there anything that can be said to be "genuinely real" involved. My
> > >answer would be that there is no "substance" but there might be a

reality.

I don't know whether you consider a neural signal to be a "substance."

I would say that it is a process rather than a substance.

If
you do, then I plead guilty to whatever you're accusing me of. I use the
neurological model in explaining how it is that we seem to have brains
(that is, other people seem to have them -- I've never seen mine), and why
it is that having a well-functioning brain seems to be so important in
human affairs, and so on. This model is consistent with much of experience
and will probably become more so.

I too would expect that parts of the model, large parts of the model, will
become recognized as the most effective way to think about behavior.
However, you attach to the model some ideological quirks that I don't
believe are a necessary part of what in the model is an effective
description
of the process of behavior.

> > I think you are reading more philosophical depth into my statement

than I

> > intended.
>
>Perhaps, however, as I perceive it , you are expounding a view that is
>lacking in sufficient depth to serve as an adequate basis for a viable
>theory of value.

That's so tantalizing -- to be told it lacks sufficient depth, without any
indication of what might amount to sufficient depth.

Ok. Well, take your own case. You've created a really marvelous work that
revolutionizes psychology. But, you don't yourself find that you can behave
yourself in a way that you yourself approves of. You find yourself saying
stuff
that later you wish you hadn't said. Control theory we think ought to
provide
a basis for bettering our lives. Yet, the CSGnet has been the site of what
many people regard to be a lot of unpleasantness. Now, I have obviously
been around and active lately on the CSGnet, but the sort of unpleasantness
that has often been characteristic of the CSGnet has been a feature of the
net during times when I haven't been active. Somehow, the marvelous
psychology doesn't seem to be of much of any help in efforts to correct this
situation. Rather, you end up defending Rick when he calls Michelle, "an
ignorant slut." You tell me that I have not contributed anything to the
CSGnet.
And, then Rick denies that he called Michelle "an ignorant slut." and You
deny have made the claim that I've never contributed anything to CSG.
So, I don't think there is any mystery here. You don't seem to have the
capacity to view your own behavior in a context that, in your phrase is
"objective." And, I believe that this failing is due to a solipsistic
approach
to experience. It is the dark side of the slogan, "Behavior is the control
of
perception." Granted the slogan has its uses, but it also has its dangers.

> When I say there has to be something going on beneath the
> > numbers, I mean that the number representing the output of the control
> > system model has to stand for some actual process by which (in this

case)

> > the consumption control system affects the environment so as to

maintain

>or
> > change the current rate of consumption.
>
>Where we seem to disagree is in part located in the above in which you

say,

>"some actual process." I would agree that there being "some actual
>process." Where I would disagree is a matter of what and how that

"actual

>process" is to be specified. There are I believe good reasons to reject

a

>substance theory of value, and a monistic conception of reality. I will
>return this point below when you argument touches on this point again.

If you refuse to use physical models, I don't know how you manage to say
anything useful about what the rest of us call physical processes, like
controlling.

We both know that these "physical models" are ideas. But, once again
"Economics is not physics."

> >The output action of the system
> > results in executing transactions at a certain rate, entailing

spending

> > money at a certain rate and receiving goods are the corresponding rate
> > (spending rate divided by average price per good).

The "good", however, is not a substance.

The actual output

> > variable can thus be identified as the rate of spending money,

No it can not. Not in the absence of price index. And, the price index is
not a matter that can be treated in terms of physics.

which
takes

> > place in the environment of the control system. This action affects

the

> > environment so as to cause goods to appear in the consumer's

inventory.

> >
> > So far this has nothing to do with value.
>
>You have already introduce the notion of "goods." So, your claim that
>nothing so far has anything to do with value would appear to be
>contradictory.

No, you've simply misunderstood how I use "goods". I could have said
"items".

Well, it isn't really fair to blame me when without warning you use a world
that in a larger community has one meaning with your choice to use the
word in a different way. Communication is, for your information, a
social process. If you wish to communicate it would be better to
acknowledge that there is a world of other people who use these words.
When I read what you have to say about economics, it often strikes me
that I am reading a foreign language that is written using familiar terms.
But, the meanings are all changed about.

The process of obtaining items from a store is a mechanical one
of

paying money and receiving the items. I can do that without valuing the
"good" at all -- if I'm running an errand for someone else, the process of
obtaining the good works the same way as it would if I were buying it for
myself. We can surely describe that part of the control loop separately
from the rest of the loop.

You say, that,

The process of obtaining items from a store is a mechanical one

I would say that this is a control process rather than "a mechanical"
process.

> >The subject of value comes up
> > when we ask why this entity is acquiring goods.
>
>No, you already introduced value before this point. You can not talk

about

>goods, not consistently at least, without getting into the value issue.

Of course I can if I am using the word "good" to indicate items in a

store,

Not, consistently. And, rather than "goods" the preferred term would be
commodities.

without saying what value I personally put on them.

This is a rather obvious resort to the solecism that plagues your efforts
to think about an economic problem that is inherently social.

Let's not confuse that
meaning of "good" with the other meanings.

By all means lets avoid confusion. How, about we avoid equivocation
as well?

>There is much in what you say above that I am in agreement with. I've

been

>aware of this for quite some time. I wasn't as you say "searching" for

such

>a conception. I have been familiar with these conceptions for a

decade

>or two and I continue to find them valuable.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that there was some conception with which

you

were not already completely, totally, exhaustively familiar.

Well, what was I supposed to think? Your use of "in search of" was
obviously
intended to suggest that I was in need of something that I hadn't yet found.
You are good a inserting sneers into a discussion. I was merely indicating
that you had misunderstood my position. I am glad we have this straightened
out.

>There are enough of them that if they are all kept close to particular
>values, chances are that the physical organism is working properly in all
>important regards.
>
>"Physical organism" seems redundant to me, and thus seems to me to be
>introducing an ideological twist into the discussion.

Perhaps I should have said "physiological" or "somatic" to show I was
thinking of the states of the organ systems and other things at that

level,

as opposed to the states of the signal-handling systems of the brain.

> >More to the point, any deviations of these basic variables from
> > what we may as well call their "intrinsic reference levels" indicates

that

> > something is going wrong that needs to be fixed.
>
>Usually this is the case.
>
> I have not tried to
> > propose every possible way in which "intrinsic errors" of this kind

might

> > be corrected, but have focused on one basic and especially powerful

method

> > that I call "e. coli reorganization." This process alters the

organization

> > of the brain at random, and ceases to alter it only when all intrinsic
> > variables are once again at their respective intrinsic reference

levels.

> > Those intrinsic reference levels, of course, are a product of the
>evolution
> > of the species.
> >
>Right. And, I think in almost all most all of the above you are making a
>useful point.
>
> > So I have proposed a mechanism by which the actual, objective
>
>Here, in the use of "objective" it appears to me that you are introducing

a

>slant into the argument which is unnecessary.

Don't jump out of your skin every time I happen to use a word that's
loaded for you.

And, don't you exaggerate when someone "objects" to your slipping in a
loaded word. And, I am not as you say, "jumping out of my skin" rather
I am jumping on you for using words that have a meaning that I object
to. There, is for your information a world somewhere out there where
people use words. But, you want the privilege of using words any
which way. And, this is yet another instance of your solipsistic
approach to discussion.

As I said, I use words like "actual" and "objective" to refer to

things observable, reliably, by more than one person.

Unfortunately there seems to be only two of us here, and as you have
said, "You don't care." what other people think. So, we really need
more people here to create the sort of context that you are talking
about where there is a community involved.

We all know, of

course, that we are just comparing perceptions (as best we can through
communication), but it gets very tiresome to keep saying that all the

time.

Even the use of we, as you use it, is problematic. Since as you say "you
don't care" in regard to other people's existences what is the point of
"communication." Solipsism really does seem to me to be the problem.

Not only that, but continually attaching qualifiers to what we say is
paralyzing; we get into deeper and deeper layers until the original

subject

is lost.

I don't regard this as being at all "paralyzing." Rather in my view it
probes
a basic issue-- is solitary inquiry viable.? And, beyond that Is there any
point
to solitary inquiry?

>I am not an "objectivist."
>You could omit "actual" and "objective." Would , or how would, doing so
>change the meaning of the sentence?

Since I was talking about the "actual, objective needs of the organism", I
meant to indicate the needs which, as far as we can ascertain and agree,
must be met for the organism to survive or maintain good health.

Here, you make reference to "we can ascertain and agree" where I have very
real doubts as to your understanding that such a notion is in conflict with
your
basic approach which is "I don't care." That is, You don't care what other
people think. This puts you in danger of the pathology that Putnam
identifies.

This

doesn't mean that we have some magical way of observing directly what is
really needed by an organism. It is a conclusion drawn from applying
whatever model of the organism is appropriate to what we perceive of the
organism. If it's a good model it will hold up to testing.

>There is a sense in which I agree with you about the character and nature

of

>needs. I think your system provides the best explanation of this that

is

>available. I don't think, however, that it is useful to describe this
>structure of behavior in terms of "objective needs." Your talk about
>"objective needs" is in my view a unnecessary injection of a materialist
>ideology.

Only if you insist, over my objections, on interpreting it that way. Or

are

you saying that your interpretation is objectively correct?

No, what I would argue is that there are better ways to proceed than by
discarding, remember the Pierce quotation, what others have found out,
and insisting upon starting from scratch, and going about things from a
solipsistic approach.

I am using the

best models I know about in the best way I can. What is ideological about

that?

The ideology comes in when you take up the solipsistic stance. Then by not
being willing to consider that your approach to issues is one that fails to
meet
even your own criteria for success, you have adopted a Bill Powers
ideology.
Not that a Bill Powers ideology isn't a pretty good ideology, but it isn't
an
ideology that makes for a good start toward a community of inquirers doing
collaborative work applying control theory.

>The term "objective" which you use here is a misnomer. The "needs" are

not

>in fact all needs for objects.

Of course not. A person needs to be in an environment with a temperature
high enough to support life (given the equipment available). Temperature

is

not an object, yet I claim that this is an objective observation: your
"reasonable man" would agree that the person needs a high enough
temperature, and that is what I mean by objective. This is opposed to
subjective needs, which are seldom critical for survival when not met.

> Some of the needs are for relationships.

Yes, and any of the other 10 levels of perception I have defined. But

there

are subjective and objective needs for relationships. I objectively need
you to hold up the other end of the sofa we are moving; I subjectively

need

you to be civil about it. Anyone can tell that we must work together in

the

right geometric relationship to move the sofa, but there could be
substantial disagreement about the need for civility -- what _I_ call
civility. Since it's _all_ perception, any type of experience can be used
for an example.

>One of the reasons that I do not use the caption PCT is that I have been
>aware of how you conceive of PCT in physical terms.

Do you have a better version that is still consistent with the models of
the physical sciences and neurology? Or do you reject physics models,
op-amps and all?

Yes, I like the term "control theory." Then I don't have to explain why I
am
using a theoretical concept developed by this guy, who claimed that
Keynes was a tax cheat. Most of the people that I talk to would agree
with you that poor old Ludwig von Mises is. or was, an asshole so that
apt characterization isn't really a problem for me. However, calling dear
old Ludwig an asshole doesn't seem to me to do much to advance
economic inquiry.

>There is, of course, a physical aspect to control theory, but this
>physical aspect can be thought of without bringing in a monistic,
>objectivist, philosophic world view.

I don't know what these technical terms mean, but I strongly suspect that
they don't apply to me.

Then how about solipsism?

>A reference signal is (if the model is correct) a real physical thing

inside

>a brain, not an abstract concept.
>
>I do not mean to be disrespectful in anyway. However what you are saying
>here does not appear to me to be useful. This statement in my view is
>precisely what a positivist philosophic stance requires. I simply don't

see

>any reason for you to place your work in a positivist context.

I mean, of course, that we should model it as a physical neural signal in

a

brain, and not as some magical or mystical or disembodied ectoplasm
floating in some vague imaginary space.

Yes, better to avoid the ectoplasm.

I am always referring to models,

not to Real Reality.

No. This isn't really true. You equivocate like there is no tomorrow.

If you could accept that once and for all, I could

speak normally without hedging my sentences about with qualifiers and
explanations and exceptions, which not only lengthen sentences
unnecessarily, but bore everyone who already understands the context in
which I speak.

Who is the "everyone" an everyone "who already understand the context in
which I speak." This is a further example of what seems to me to be a
severely solipsistic approach to, per impossible, communication.

>All concepts including "materialism" are concepts.

Well, some perceptions are of other kinds, but I agree that all we can

know

are perceptions.

>Furthermore, all concepts are "abstract."

I don't think we need to keep going over this ground. We agree.

Good. I think we agree more than you suspect.

> >The actions by which we make the environment
> > change to move our perceptions closer to their reference levels are

not

> > abstract, but ordinary physical actions
>
>Ordinary Perhaps. But, there is no need for me to think about this is
>positivistic terms.

Which model do you use to refer to what we call actions, if not the models
of physics (with some physiology)?

How about models in which there are other people?

>They consist of such simple processes as getting out
> > a wallet and passing money across a counter,
>
>Here is where I think your positivism gets you in trouble. "Passing money
>across a counter" isn't simple. Thinking that it is simple when it is

not,

>creates a problem.

No it doesn't.

   Yes it does.

Nit-picking creates the problem.

No, it is the "nits" that create the need for "nit-picking." I can't
imagine why
"nit-picking" got a bad name. If you have nits, not that I have ever had
nits,
you'd want them "picked." Now, Ideologically you have "nits." You say my
"nit-picking" creates the problem. I say that it is your solipicism that
creates
a big problem.

Are you trying to tell me
that there are many higher orders of perception from which you can view

the

act of passing money across the counter? Gee whiz, Bill, why didn't I

think

of that?

The reason you didn't think of it is that you are basically a solipsist.
The fact
that there are other people is a fact that seems, in some respects, to have
escaped you.

>I can agree in part to this. But, my agreement does not extend to the

point

>where the description takes on a positivistic interpretation.

I think you're hypersentive on this subject, as well as somewhat
hypocritical. There is no such thing as a description taking on a
positivistic interpretation, except to a positivist.

Not at all. You don't have to be a positivist to recognize one.

That is a
positivistic
idea in itself -- the idea that descriptions take on interpretations all
by
themselves, in some Real Reality.

From a pragmatic interpretation, positivists are a problem. Pragmatists

are not positivists.

You are speaking of things you infer
from

what you read, using your private logic and private experiences.

I also, some of the time talk, about what others have communicated to me.

How can

you object to what you see as hints of positivism when your own opinions
are usually stated as objective facts?

Don't recall ever having described my assertions as "objective facts."

>I don't disagree with you that PCT provides a description of behavior in
>causal terms or physical terms. What I am arguing is that the category
>"value" is not a substance.

All depends on what you mean by substance.

If I may correct you, what I and other people, mean by substance.

If you mean solid, liquid, or

gas, value is not a substance. Wrong model. If you mean that a neural
reference signal is a substance, using the neurological model, then yes, a
value is a substance -- but only _that_ kind of substance.

This gets back to an old argument between us. Economic Value according
to me is not a property that is assigned to an individual organism. The way
you are going about this definition is, for me, an indication of a basic
mistake
that you consistently make. We've argued about this for years, you've never
seen my point-- but that is not at all hard to do if you are a solipsist.

>Economics is not physics.

No, but it is describable within the same laws of physics that apply
everywhere else, to the extent it entails interactions in the part of
experience we call the physical world. Unless, of course, you have a model
that works better..

If you are going to attempt to consider problems that are social in
character
then it might be helpful to adopt a point of view that recognizes the social
character of human experience.

>If the only world that you recognize is a positivist one ( I am not sure

at

>this point if you think of yourself as a positivist but it appears

likely )

>and the only world is a materialistic one then it would appear that you

deny

>the reality of values.

If you think that, you have not followed my reasoning at all.

This is another example of a solipsistic approach. Because I do not agree
in your terms that seems to you to mean that I have not understood your
reasoning. And, you phrase it in terms of my not understanding your
"reasoning at all."

I think

values are completely real, and I have developed the model that gives them
a real place to exist, and a real mode of functioning that works with all
the other models I know about (that is, the models I believe).

Again, how about a model that includes other people?

But of

course all of that is part of a _model_ of reality.

Yes, But, it would help if it was a model in which other people exist.

> You seem to be a monist. I think I prefer to be a
>pluralist in the sense that it appears useful to me to think in terms of

a

>world view in which there are different kinds of values.

I think that there are as many different values as there are controlled
perceptions and people to control them. Reference signals, in my model,
establish and define values.

Values in my conception are social rather than substantial.

>The accusation of "insubstantiality" doesn't frighten me. I don't think

of

>experience including values within the category of experience, in terms

of a

>monistic materialism. And, as far as I know all "conceptual spaces" are
>imaginary.

Including yours?

Sure. But, some imaginations are better than others.

I agree, all models create an imaginary picture of

reality. That makes it even more astonishing when some models, like

physics

and PCT, manage to make predictions of future experiences with detailed
accuracy.

I think it is neat. But, I don't see why it should be "astonishing."

>There is, however, no place in your world for values-- not at least I as
>think of values.

Maybe that's the issue right there. How _do_ you think of values?

In my, and by the way some other people too, values are social in character.

In your

conception, do they have some property that is not explained by modeling
them as reference signals (with the associated control system to give them
an effect)? What is missing from the idea or the experience of values that
is not captured in the concept of a reference signal with respect to which
perceptions are evaluated?

That other people have values too. But, then you "don't care."

I hope we are not talking here about "objectively correct" values.

Well, some conceptions of value theory _are_ better than others.

>What you say has an appealing plausibility. I would agree that

"experience"

>is connected to a reality or realities.

That is unnecessary in PCT,

You may think that it is, but that doesn't mean that it actually is
as you say, "unnecessary."

but of course we like to think that there is

some sort of reality Out There. I decided long ago that even if there is,
we have no way of comparing what we experience with that reality.

Well, what ever is the case for PCT, the control theory position doesn't
seem to me to be intelligible without a provision for an environment.

All we

have is perception.

Not really, we have a model of control in which there is an environment.

That is why we have to use models as a way of trying
to

understand what is likely to be Out There.

However, I think we would agree that the "Out There" where ever that might
be is really in here. Now you seem to be of the opinion that the "in here"
only
has one person in it. I think there are some other folks around.

"If the world were really

structured as this model is structured, then it would have to behave as we
observe it behaving." That is the Holy Grail that the modeler seeks: a
model that predicts exactly the relationships among observations that we

do

in fact observe, neither more nor less.

Well, if we think about reality in terms of CSGnet, then the reality isn't
all that
Holy. And, I think it is due in part to this notion of solipsism that comes
in with
the slogan "It is all perception."

> But, experience is not a substance.

True, but "substance" could be an element of a model with which we attempt
to explain experience. Not all models work out equally well, especially
those that use terms as vague as "substance."

OK. How about your use of "concrete?"

>What experience is has yet to be worked out with any adequacy, but I

think

>control theory can be helpful. Experience has an unavoidably economic
>aspect to it. The orthodox conception of the economy has some problems--
>such as the persistent problem of the Giffen paradox. And, control theory
>provides what think is a good explanation for the behavior that is
>considered paradoxical in the orthodox context. One of the things that
>attracted me to the paradox-- besides its being a fundamental issue in
>economics-- is that the behavior of an economic agent was obviously tied

to

>the calorie.

Yes,and one reason this is so satisfying is that it forms a link between
models that are otherwise mostly independent -- physiology, physics, and
neurology, as well as models in economics.

We really do agree upon this.

> > my remarks concerning numbers had merely
>
>"Merely?" Come on, it was a hard sell for stale snake oil. Fess up to
>ideological credo as a monistic materialist.

Nonsense.

Then how about a solipsistic individualist? Not, that your "Nonsense"
means that
I am mistaken.

You are as objectively wrong as you think you are objectively
right.

I can't remember having thought about being "objectively right" for decades.
Positivism, materialism, objectivism are all "isms."

>I acknowledge that when modeling it is necessary to be explicit about

what

>it is that is being modeled and that I should be more careful in

attaching

>dimensions to the terms being modeled. However, "Economics is not
>Physics." Positivism, objectivism, materialism have not provided an
>adequate basis for economic theory.

Why don't we just forget about those isms and just go on with the

modeling?

Because you insist upon a conception of inquiry that doesn't work in the
context of economic theory.

We're flirting with angels on pinheads, and won't get anywhere with that.

You can speak for yourself about "not getting anywhere." This is a
characteristic
positivist dismissal of the issues involved at the foundation of economic
theory.

>I have found this discussion most informative. Not that I learned

anything

>new about control theory in the course of it. But, I never would have
>suspected that you take a monistic materialism so seriously. I don't

think

>there is much of any chance of your converting me to your old time

religion.

>And, I am quite sure that you are not interested in considering switching

to

>what I view as a more adequate set of preconceptions.

Bill, for crying out loud, do you have to be so persistently superior and
offensive?

Well, its all true. Your position really does have some severe defects--
like
you "don't care" about what other people think.

Lay off. Let's get back to something productive.

Again, this is a typical positivist twist. You know what value is. That's
all
settled. Well it isn't. Your conception of these issues, I am convinced is
vitally important if you are going to understand economic issues. It would
also be helpful for understanding questions such as why things happen
the way they do on the CSGnet. I don't accept your conception of what is
and what is not productive.

You don't need

to worry about isms when you focus on constructing a good clear model.

This is more positivist dogma. The Isms are always a worry.

Don't you think you have anything to learn about that, either?

This is another of the are you still fucking pigs arguments.

Bill Williams

[From Rick Marken (2004.05.24.1610)]

The gain on the proportional controller (.95) made it unstable and the
screen updating made the model run too slowly. So here is an even more
improved version with lower gain (.85) and screen updating turned off.

The equations for the consumption controller are as follows

r = referece for consumption ' input from user
k = gain of proportional controller ' input from user

'Control loop

For i = 1 to 100

    oc = k (r-p)

    rs = oc * 1/(c/$) : cost to consumer oc goods

    ' The following is the computation of as, the amount spent on goods
    ' B is the amount available to spent and ob is the output of the budget
    ' control loop which is 1 or zero with no budget control loop ob can
    ' be assumed to always be 1

    If (rs<B) then
        as = rs * ob
    Else
        if rs>0 then
            as = B
        else
            as = 0
        End if
    End if

    ac = as * c/$ : amount consumed this cycle

    C = C + ac - dc * C : update the inventory

    p = C

Nest

Regards

Rick

ConsumeBudget2a.xls (45.5 KB)

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.24.1629 MDT)]

Bill Williams 24 May 2004 10:50 AM CST--

But, then you go to talk about "concrete."

Dammit, Bill, you simply can't read what is in front of your eyes. Do a
search for "concrete" in that post: you won't find it. And once your
imagination supplies a term like that you keep compulsively returning to
it, without the slightest apparent awareness that you made it up yourself.
I don't use the terms "concrete" and "abstract" except in communicating
with other people who do. Why should I? I spent over 20 years developing
a very carefully constructed analysis of perception in which there were 9
degrees of abstraction, or going the other way, of concretenes. In the next
15 years I managed, with help, to add two more, so now there are 11. Why
should I be satisfied with 2?.I did use the word abstract, to communicate.
But I did not use the word concrete. That came our of your imagination.

Now you have another word to harp on, solipsism. All right, I will
summarize my views on solipsism (which Greg Williams, who is quite a
philosopher, thought was worthy of serious consideration).

The basic problem of epistemology is how, or if, we can prove that there is
a real world at the root of our perceptions. This problem goes far beyond
the question of whether other people exist. The basic question is whether
anything at all exists outside our subjective worlds (where "our" refers to
an assumed similarity of experience which is also in question).

As soon as I recognized that perception takes place inside me, I realized
that there was a problem. I didn't know it was called epistemology or that
one of the no-no solutions to this problem is called solipsism. All I knew
was that it was damned hard to prove that anything real existed. Every time
I thought I had a way to do it, I realized that I was depending on my
perceptions again. I didn't find any convincing solutions from reading
books. Eventually, I admitted defeat: All we know are perceptions, and we
have no idea how they relate to whatever is causing them, if anything. That
is where solipstists stop.

I did not stop there. Over a lot of years, I came to see that the problem
of existence of a Reality behind our perceptions could not be answered
philosophically, by pure reason. It had to be answered the way we answer
all other questions about FACTS: by examining evidence and drawing
conclusions with the help of models. Either there is an actual, factual,
Real Reality that is causing our perceptions, or there is not. But that is
not the kind of answer we can get from the methods known to human beings.
All we can do is look for evidence and ewaluate it as best we can, and
arrive at an answer that is somewhat less than certain, but better then
nothing.

The control-system model turned out to have some important things to say on
this subject. Putting together the best and simplest neurological models of
human perception, we find a good case for saying that perceptions are
neural signals and that they arise from sensory receptors. The PCT model
accepts that picture, and adds a number of levels of input processing that
create progressively more "abstract" perceptions ranging from intensity
perceptions to system concepts. This model also accepts that there is a
"physical" cause of simulation of sensory receptors, where we draw on the
models of physics to deal with those causes. So this appears to be a more
or less reasonable justification for saying that there is a real Reality
out there that creates perceptions in here. At least the story hangs together.

But there is a snag. Perceptul signals, it turns out, are not just sensory
impressions. They are _FUNCTIONS OF_ sensory impressions, and the nature of
the functions depends on both experience and heredity. Furthermore, there
is no one "right" function in any circumstance -- for example, we can
control the distance between ourselves and a goal location in terms of a
perception of "nearness" just successfully as using a perception of "farness".

The idea that perceptions are functions of other perceptions, and
ultimately of sensory stimulation, makes the concept of a real external
world more plausible, but this happens at a cost. We have to realize that
there is no way to tell WHAT FUNCTION of the external world is involved in
any perception. We have no independent way to check the external world to
see what is there that corresponds to any given perception. However we try
to do this, we end up using one set of perceptions to evaluate another set
of perceptions.

The process of control strongly suggests the existence of an external
reality, but quite likely different from the one we experience directly. We
can't just use any old action to control a perception; we have to
experiment and find out which actions will have the desired effects on
perceptions. We don't create the rules but we have to discover them and
learn them in order to control anything. This is evidence saying that there
is an external reality with its own properties, independent of us.
Disturbances -- changes in our perceptions that we did not cause ourselves
and which we must counteract to maintain control -- also indicate a real
and active reality behind perception.

The conclusions from these lines of reasoning from models and observations
are not certain, but they are as orderly as most investigations of factual
matters, and come out of the same techniques. I think they provide strong
evidence for a Real Reality, and also strong reason to think that we
experience a strictly human version of reality, not reality itself.

As to the existence of other people, I'm as convinced that they exist as I
am that a real reality exists. I also realize that it is very difficult to
know what they are perceiving and controlling; it is very easy to be mistaken.

As you are mistaken about me, in almost every respect.

Am I to take the remarks at the end of your post to indicate that you are
no longer interested in working on a PCT model of consumption and budget
control?

Bill P.

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.25.1924 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2004.05.24.1610)--

The equations for the consumption controller are as follows

r = referece for consumption ' input from user
k = gain of proportional controller ' input from user

'Control loop

For i = 1 to 100

    oc = k (r-p)

Does oc mean output of the consumption controller? The units would be
buy-sell transactions per unit time, I take it.

    rs = oc * 1/(c/$) : cost to consumer oc goods

Is (c/$) the number of goods per dollar, in other words 1/price per good?
Are c and $ defined elsewhere?

   ' The following is the computation of as, the amount spent on goods
    ' B is the amount available to spent and ob is the output of the budget
    ' control loop which is 1 or zero with no budget control loop ob can
    ' be assumed to always be 1

    If (rs<B) then <============== what happens to as if rs < 0?
        as = rs * ob
    Else
        if rs>0 then
            as = B
        else
            as = 0
        End if
    End if

This cleverly makes sure that the amount spend on goods is equal to or less
than the amount left in B (B, I take it, is an account where income
accumulates and from which payments for goods are taken). However, there is
one last problem, which is what happens if rs is less than zero, which can
happen if p > r. See arrow in above listing.

    ac = as * c/$ : amount consumed this cycle

I had this same problem in econ004 -- you have to say, OK if the amount
spent is not what was specified, how many goods could I have bought with
the amount actually spent?

    C = C + ac - dc * C : update the inventory

I take it that C is the inventory of goods.

    p = C

... and p is the perception of C.

All right, not a bad start.

Now let's assume that there is a cash reserve, B, which is being controlled
continuously relative to a reference level B* or B'. You may select the
means of control as you please, but it must end up with both the size of
the cash reserve and the inventory of goods being under control at
specified levels. I'm interested in how many ways there are to do this.

One of the implied questions is, "What are the conditions under which this
is possible?" Others are, "What's the effect on system variables of a
change in price (c/$)?" and "What's the effect of a limit on income, and a
change in wages?"

Best,

Bill P.

[From Rick Marken (2004.05.24.2225)]

Bill Powers (2004.05.25.1924 MDT)--

Rick Marken (2004.05.24.1610)--

    oc = k (r-p)

Does oc mean output of the consumption controller? The units would be
buy-sell transactions per unit time, I take it.

Yes.

    rs = oc * 1/(c/$) : cost to consumer oc goods

Is (c/$) the number of goods per dollar, in other words 1/price per
good?

Yes.

    If (rs<B) then <============== what happens to as if rs < 0?

This cleverly makes sure that the amount spend on goods is equal to or
less
than the amount left in B... However, there is
one last problem, which is what happens if rs is less than zero, which
can
happen if p > r. See arrow in above listing.

Good eye. The actual test (in cell B10 of hte spreadsheet) is

     If (rs<B) AND (rs>0) then
         as = rs * ob
     Else
         if rs>0 then
             as = B
         else
             as = 0
         End if
     End if

The consumer cannot purchase a negative amount of goods.

    C = C + ac - dc * C : update the inventory

I take it that C is the inventory of goods.

Yes.

All right, not a bad start.

Thanks.

Now let's assume that there is a cash reserve, B, which is being
controlled
continuously relative to a reference level B* or B'.

This is currently done by the Budget Controller. The Budget controller
is a "bang bang" controller that prevents spending (sets its output,
ob, to 0) if the budget is below the reference and sets doesn't prevent
spending (sets ob to 1) otherwise.

"What's the effect on system variables of a
change in price (c/$)?" and "What's the effect of a limit on income,
and a
change in wages?"

These questions can be answered in the context of the current version
of the model by changing c/$ (making the value smaller is equivalent to
increasing the cost ($) per good (c)) and by changing the value of
income (i). Increasing the cost per good (reducing c/$ to .1, say)
leads the model to quickly lose control of consumption; consumption
levels out at the level that is equivalent to what can be bought with
the income that arrives in each iteration. The effect of income is
pretty interesting. I tried to find the income level that allows
control of consumption and while budget remains constant. With the
budget reference equal to 0 and c/$=.1 the consumption systems can keep
C at the reference (90) while the budget (B) remains above the
reference and constant at $9.

I found interesting oscillations around the budget and consumption
references (that remain stable) for certain settings but I can't
remember the settings at the moment. The model certainly shows what
is, perhaps, obvious: that it sucks to be poor, quantitative
consumption-wise.

Best

Rick

···

---
Richard S. Marken
marken@mindreadings.com
Home 310 474-0313
Cell 310 729-1400

From[Bill Williams 24 May 2004 12:01 PM CST]

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.24.1629 MDT)]

Bill Williams 24 May 2004 10:50 AM CST--

>But, then you go to talk about "concrete."

Dammit, Bill, you simply can't read what is in front of your eyes. Do a
search for "concrete" in that post: you won't find it.

Perhaps not in that particular post. However, you have talked about doing
economic in these terms.

>And once your imagination

This is another of those did you fuck another pig arguments?

>supplies a term like that you keep compulsively returning to

it, without the slightest apparent awareness that you made it up yourself.

That is mainly because I didn't make it up. See in the following you state

I don't use the terms "concrete" and "abstract" except in communicating
with other people who do.

I am not sure why you blame your use of "concrete" on people who use the
term.

Why should I?

Why indeed? Yet you do.

I spent over 20 years developing

a very carefully constructed analysis of perception in which there were 9
degrees of abstraction, or going the other way, of concretenes

I maintain that the use of "concreteness" doesn't really make any sense.

. In the next

15 years I managed, with help, to add two more, so now there are 11. Why
should I be satisfied with 2?.I did use the word abstract, to communicate.
But I did not use the word concrete. That came our of your imagination.

No it did not.

Now you have another word to harp on, solipsism.

Yes. For the time being it is my favor word.

All right, I will

summarize my views on solipsism (which Greg Williams, who is quite a
philosopher, thought was worthy of serious consideration).

The basic problem of epistemology is how, or if, we can prove that there

is

a real world at the root of our perceptions. This problem goes far beyond
the question of whether other people exist. The basic question is whether
anything at all exists outside our subjective worlds (where "our" refers

to

an assumed similarity of experience which is also in question).

As soon as I recognized that perception takes place inside me, I realized
that there was a problem. I didn't know it was called epistemology or that
one of the no-no solutions to this problem is called solipsism. All I knew
was that it was damned hard to prove that anything real existed. Every

time

I thought I had a way to do it, I realized that I was depending on my
perceptions again. I didn't find any convincing solutions from reading
books. Eventually, I admitted defeat: All we know are perceptions, and we
have no idea how they relate to whatever is causing them, if anything.

That

is where solipstists stop.

I did not stop there. Over a lot of years, I came to see that the problem
of existence of a Reality behind our perceptions could not be answered
philosophically, by pure reason. It had to be answered the way we answer
all other questions about FACTS: by examining evidence and drawing
conclusions with the help of models. Either there is an actual, factual,
Real Reality that is causing our perceptions, or there is not. But that is
not the kind of answer we can get from the methods known to human beings.
All we can do is look for evidence and ewaluate it as best we can, and
arrive at an answer that is somewhat less than certain, but better then
nothing.

OK so far.

The control-system model turned out to have some important things to say

on

this subject. Putting together the best and simplest neurological models

of

human perception, we find a good case for saying that perceptions are
neural signals and that they arise from sensory receptors. The PCT model
accepts that picture, and adds a number of levels of input processing that
create progressively more "abstract" perceptions ranging from intensity
perceptions to system concepts. This model also accepts that there is a
"physical" cause of simulation of sensory receptors, where we draw on the
models of physics to deal with those causes. So this appears to be a more
or less reasonable justification for saying that there is a real Reality
out there that creates perceptions in here. At least the story hangs

together.

Yes. I think it does.

But there is a snag. Perceptul signals, it turns out, are not just sensory
impressions. They are _FUNCTIONS OF_ sensory impressions, and the nature

of

the functions depends on both experience and heredity. Furthermore, there
is no one "right" function in any circumstance -- for example, we can
control the distance between ourselves and a goal location in terms of a
perception of "nearness" just successfully as using a perception of

"farness".

OK

The idea that perceptions are functions of other perceptions, and
ultimately of sensory stimulation, makes the concept of a real external
world more plausible,

I don't think that it actually does this. I does seem to present the
possiblity
that we might be able to conduct transactions with this world more
effectively,
but I can not see that in makes reality more real.

but this happens at a cost. We have to realize that
there is no way to tell WHAT FUNCTION of the external world is involved in
any perception. We have no independent way to check the external world to
see what is there that corresponds to any given perception.

I am not concerned with this "problem" in epistomology. I view the
perception
that this is a problem as a cultural artifact. Doesn't have any interest
for me.

However we try

to do this, we end up using one set of perceptions to evaluate another set
of perceptions.

Yes indeed.

The process of control strongly suggests the existence of an external
reality, but quite likely different from the one we experience directly.

We

can't just use any old action to control a perception; we have to
experiment and find out which actions will have the desired effects on
perceptions.

Right.

We don't create the rules but we have to discover them and

learn them in order to control anything. This is evidence saying that

there

is an external reality with its own properties, independent of us.
Disturbances -- changes in our perceptions that we did not cause ourselves
and which we must counteract to maintain control -- also indicate a real
and active reality behind perception.

Seem to be this way.

The conclusions from these lines of reasoning from models and observations
are not certain, but they are as orderly as most investigations of factual
matters, and come out of the same techniques. I think they provide strong
evidence for a Real Reality, and also strong reason to think that we
experience a strictly human version of reality, not reality itself.

I have no idea what would be a "reality itself."

As to the existence of other people, I'm as convinced that they exist as I
am that a real reality exists. I also realize that it is very difficult to
know what they are perceiving and controlling; it is very easy to be

mistaken.

So, it is.

As you are mistaken about me, in almost every respect.

Then you are mistaken about your self to a very large degree. You say
yourself
that you say stuff that is inconsistent with your, I suppose "better self"
is a
suitable term. I've pointed out some instances in which you've said stuff
about
me that isn't true. You deny it, but this doesn't mean that this doesn't
happen.

You say, that I am mistaken in almost every respect. This is what you say.
But,
this is not what people that talk to me say. What people tell me is that you
have
a "God complex" which prevents you from perceiving the way that you
approach
issues. Seeming behind a genial, tolerant, intelligent, and perceptive
person
that you also are, is a person who under certain circumstances is also
willing to
tell the most absurd mean spirited whoppers if it seems likely that doing
so will
enable you to win an argument.

You say, in this post, that you acknoweldge that there are people in the
world
besides yourself. You say this, but your actions do not indicate an a
genuine
acknowledgment in practice of the conclusions that you have reached as
a result of applying control theory to human behavior. I don't think that
this
neccesarily says anything about the viablity of the theory-- other than to
indicate
that the theory isn't magical.

You will recall in a recent post that while you denied having described
poor old
Ludwig von Mises as an asshole, which you did, you repeated your
description
of Ludwig as a Facist. Now, Ludwig isn't my favorate character, but he
wasn't
a Facist. Either you don't know what the words mean, or you don't care and
you
are choosing to use words any-which-way, or for some reason you are not
concerned about the truth of what you say. And, if it isn't one of these
then I am
missing something that is going on. I think we ought to be fair to dear old
Ludwig
and only blame him for what he is to blame for. It really is irresonsible
for you to
call Ludwing a facist when he never was one. Just as it was irresponsible
for you
to say that Keynes was a tax cheat when there is no evidence of this. There
really
is a quite reasonble basis for Keynes' theory of user cost. Keynes didn't
write on
user costs to generate support for corporate tax relief. And, by-the-way,
if we
send people to Mars it is going to cost something.

Am I to take the remarks at the end of your post to indicate that you are
no longer interested in working on a PCT model of consumption and budget
control?

Well, first lets consider something first. Was Ludwig von Mises actually a
facist?
And, if he wasn't, how come you called him one?

Bill Williams

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.25.0641 MDT)]

Bill Williams 24 May 2004 12:01 PM CST --

Five posts. From the contents, I take it that your answer to my question
about whether you're interested in pursuing a PCT model of budget and
consumption control is that you'd rather concentrate on reforming my
personality, starting by tearing it down. I don't want to play that game
with you (or anybody).When or if you want to go on with the model, let met
know.

Bill P.

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.25.0656 MDT)]

Rick Marken (2004.05.24.2225)--

Now let's assume that there is a cash reserve, B, which is being
controlled
continuously relative to a reference level B* or B'.

This is currently done by the Budget Controller. The Budget controller
is a "bang bang" controller that prevents spending (sets its output,
ob, to 0) if the budget is below the reference and sets doesn't prevent
spending (sets ob to 1) otherwise.

A bang-bang controller is a beginning, but there are other possibilities.
You mentioned one way of _continuously_ controlling B: vary the income.
Another way would be to alter the reference level for consumption. You
might set up a first-level control system for controlling income (rate) by
varying hours of work at a certain wage. Then a second-level system could
control the cumulative amount of money in the cash reserve by varying the
reference level for rate of income AND rate of consumption (in the
appropriate directions).

This makes the cash reserves the primary consideration. But it might not be
-- we could also set it up so that the inventory of possessions was the
primary consideration, with the cash reserve being expendable as long as
there was one. We could introduce credit by allowing the cash reserve to go
negative (and see what happens when we introduce interest and repayments).
Or we could postulate a conflict, which would arise when it became
impossible to maintain both the desired cash reserve and the desired level
of consumption. One factor that would bear on such a conflict would be wages.

By exploring all these changes we can get a feel for how various factors
interact in the context of a control model. And possibly in real life.

I don't know how far you want to go with this. Of course if anyone else
wants to join in, too, that would be wonderful.

Best,

Bill P.

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.25.0718 MDT)]

Bill Williams 24 May 2004 12:01 PM CST --

An afterthought. It is really futile to defend myself against your charges
-- I feel that for the most part I have valid defenses, but putting up
defenses only calls for larger efforts by the attacker. I notice the same
effect working in the other direction. There is simply no solution to this
situation but to stop both defending and attacking. You may disapprove of
some of my opinions, but that does not alter my right to have them, or even
make them wrong. It just means you disapprove, for your own reasons. If you
disapprove strongly enough you will stop interacting with me. Otherwise you
will continue the interaction in whatever area is open to discussion. Of
course everything I say here applies equally to me.

When a direct conflict arises, the only thing to do is stop. Immediately.
Letting it escalate accomplishes nothing. There is no way to win it, for
either side. Frustrating as it may be, the only solution is to abandon
whatever was driving the conflict and leave it unresolved. Perhaps time and
reflection will reduce the urgency of whatever it was. And perhaps talking
about issues without the conflict in active force will lead to resolution
of disagreements by means other than personal attack..

···

==================================================================

One important issue is the theory of value. You say yours is a social
theory, while mine clearly puts valuation inside each individual. My
problem with your view is that I can't see how a society can evaluate
anything unless it's through many individuals valuing things. I would like
to ask you how any person knows what society's valuations are, and how a
person decides whether to accept them or not. What is the basis for
accepting a social valuation as one's own? And does that not call for a
valuation by the individual?

I would like to hear your views on these questions, but not if your only
answer is to call me a solipsist or to imply that I'm defective in some way
by being "individualistic." Is it possible simply to talk about the issues?

Best regards still,

Bill P.

[From Rick Marken (2004.05.25.1100)]

Bill Powers (2004.05.25.0656 MDT)

A bang-bang controller is a beginning, but there are other possibilities.

Yes. All interesting.

I don't know how far you want to go with this.

I don't either.

Of course if anyone else wants to join in, too, that would be wonderful.

It would, indeed. My main goal in writing up this little model was just to
try to keep the economics discussion focused on modeling. I tried to focus
it on data a while ago but that didn't work. If we can just get one or two
more research types in on the economics discussion I bet we could do some
interesting work.

Best

Rick

···

--
Richard S. Marken
MindReadings.com
Home: 310 474 0313
Cell: 310 729 1400

From[Bill Williams 25 May 2004 11:40 AM CST]

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.25.0718 MDT)]

I would like to hear your views on these questions, but not if your only
answer is to call me a solipsist or to imply that I'm defective in some

way

by being "individualistic." Is it possible simply to talk about the

issues?

I think personalities always enter into it, so it probably isn't actually
possible to "simply talk about issues" However, there may be a possibility
of talking _more_ about wider questions of an inclusive theoretical nature
and _less_ about personal issues.

In anycase I starting with, as I understand it the implications of control
theory, I have a arrived at a notion of "social" that may stand up to
criticism. Given that it has bee derived in a context of control theory, as
I understand it, is a bit different than other conceptions of "social."

You insist for good reasons upon agency being located in an "individual."
Rather than use the term individual I will use the term "specimen" borrow
from biology. This avoids the baggage ordinarily associated with the term
"individual" or "individualism." So, the specimen is a completely
autonomous control system that figures everything out for itself. No
external force dictates to a specimen what it will _try_ to do, or _how_ to
think. Everything so far, as best I can tell, is precisely the same as I
understand the meaning you attach to your use of the term "individual."

However, this specimen makes the choices that it makes in a context provided
by other people. These other people don't in a literal sense "shape, "
"mould," or "condition" the specimen's behavior. And, calling what these
"other people" do a "culture" introduces the possibility of confusing the
acts of these people as amounting to a sort of super-individual agency. So,
I will avoid the term culture even though it can be a bit tiresome not to
have a concise symbol to replace the phrase "acts of other people."

The specimen can be confronted with situations in which it can choose to
conform to what other people desire that it do, or die. Depending upon the
characteristics of the particular specimen a choice will be made to conform
to the wishes of the people who are in control of the situation or to die.
The specimen is still an autonomous agent, but confronted with such a choice
quite often the specimen will make a choice to live. Most of the time the
choice between conforming and obtaining some advantage and not conforming
and suffering some less appealing alternative is not so stark as the one
presented by conform or die.

From the outside, and looking only at the surface of things it may appear as

if these acts of other people have "molded", "shaped" or "conditioned" the
specimen's behavior. This conception of things, however, is contrary to
what is now known about the physiology of organisms. An organism is a
control system that resists external disturbances of things that it needs to
control. So, a culture conceived of in terms of controlling the behavior of
the members (specimens" making up the population of the culture would be a
contradiction of what is known concerning organic behavior. Or, in short an
"absurdity." I have more confidence in the understandings generated in
physiology than I do with the understandings of cultural theorists. And, if
you read the cultural theorists, at present they are all that confident
concerning the validity of the their own conceptions.

So, starting from first principles there is a specimen making its own
decisions. These decisions, however, are being made in a context, or
contexts that is, or are in large part, controlled by other people. To
avoid a likely understanding I will say, which may be entirely obvious that
the "other people" control the context but not the decision the specimen
will make in the context. And, the specimen may have some powers of its own
to set the context in which these other people decide what to do.

This is, I am assuming, consistent with a control theory conception of
behavior. In social theory habit has most often been associated with a
conception of behavior that is either explicitly, or implicitly one borrowed
from psychological behaviorism. But, habit, it seems to me could just as
well be defined in terms of settled patterns of reference levels. And, as a
part of controlling, these settled patterns of reference levels more or less
determine the context in which life is carried on. When people live in
groups to avoid conflict the habits of the the specimens come to be
more-or-less coordinated so as to avoid, to the extent possible, conflicts.
An infant specimen arrives into a context in which there are patterns of
coordinated reference levels. There is a tendency to talk about "shared"
reference levels, but reference levels are never "shared" since this is,
at least for the time being, a physiologically impossibility. It might be
said that people ( specimens ) come to an "agreement" about reference
levels, but even this may have some difficulties. But, it does seem that to
some extent that a "coordination" between the reference levels is possible
between the reference levels of the specimens in a population. A change in
the situation, will involve an adjustment in the reference levels of the
population, but this change is a change that takes place internally in each
specimen acting autonomously. Some of the people (specimens) may agree to
act in concert and coordinate their efforts in an attempt to impose a change
in the situation. Then the population as a whole of specimens is faced with
a choice to accept the change or resist. But, they each make the choice
autonomously,
even when they make a choice to attempt to act in concert and
counter-control and resist the imposed, or attempt to impose, a change in
the situation.

I have avoided the use of conventional terms such as "individual, "
"society," "culture" and so forth because they associations attached to
these terms as a result of their extensive use in connection with other
conceptions of behavior such as behaviorism or orthodox economics and its
conception of an economic individual. However, rather obviously what is
involved in the above _is_ a cultural analysis, but a cultural analysis
who's first principles are those of control theory. In principle there
wouldn't appear to be any barrier to the development of such an analysis.
However, on the CSGnet when discussions that move in this direction have
taken place not much agreement has been reached. An example of the "I see
you have chosen" thread is an example. While there may be other
difficulties involved, the principle problem, I understand it, (I wasn't a
participant in the thread ) had its source in equivocation which was
sufficiently intense that it precluded constructive results. As a result,
that is that there wasn't any meaningful result that emerged from this or
other such discussions, there really isn't at present an organized PCT
theory of culture or society. (I should at this point to the release anyday
now of Phil Runkel's book _People as Living Things :The Psychology of
Perceptual Control_ . Phil's book contains an excellent but limited
treatment of these issues, Phil's book is primarily concerned with
psychology -- See Dag Forssell www.livingcontrolsystems.com for a
publication date. )

As I said, I don't see anything, at least in principle, that would prevent
the development of a control theory conception of culture. And, it would
appear to me that when human experience is considered in terms of a control
theory conception of the cultural process that there are some implications
that may not be obvious otherwise. Clearly the control theory derived
conception of culture is going to be different in important respects that a
conception of culture that begins with the assumptions of psychological
behaviorism. Beyond that, a control theory conception of culture is, I
would argue, going to provide a more adequate basis for an analysis of
social and economic issues than would a control theory perspective that has
not resolved questions such as those that emerged, but were not resolved,
in the "I see you have chosen" thread.

A crucial difference between a perspective based upon a control theory
derived cultural analysis and a control theory perspective that has not yet
reworked the cultural preconceptions about power and authority, about habit
and custom, and about culture and autonomy, is that a control theory derived
cultural analysis would systematically exclude the equivocation, the
elective inclusion of extraneous assumptions, and other distractions that
resulted in the inconclusive termination of the "I see you have chosen" and
other such threads. In my perception, at least,
many of the problems that have been experienced with the efforts to apply
control theory have their source in the absence of a control theory
conception of the cultural process. The result of the absence of systematic
treatment of a control theory of culture has been, again according to me,
an unanticipated sequence of events in which efforts that began as efforts
to apply control theory in clinical practice, in schools and elsewhere
quickly became eclectic mixtures of ideologies in which control theory soon
became a rather subordinate theme. There are other experiences to which I
think that the development of a systematic control theory of culture would
also have application, however, I think what I have said provides an
indication of sufficient significance to make the point that I wish to make
here.

And, the point is, in the absence of a systematically constructed theory of
culture derived from control theory, efforts to apply control theory are
going to experience unanticipated difficulties as a result of an
incomprehension of the character of the social environment in which these
efforts to apply control theory take place.

Bill, I am going to talk to some people about what to do about the
possibility of collaborating regarding economic models. After talking with
some people I'll get back to you.

Bill Williams

[From Bill Powers (2004.05.25.1352 MDT)]

Bill Williams 25 May 2004 11:40 AM CST --

In anycase I starting with, as I understand it the implications of control
theory, I have a arrived at a notion of "social" that may stand up to
criticism. Given that it has been derived in a context of control theory, as
I understand it, is a bit different than other conceptions of "social."

This a a very clear exposition of the way control theory enters into social
phenomena, and after one pass I can't remember disagreeing with anything in
it. Clark McPhail went through a similar analysis, arriving at similar
conclusions but in the context of sociology, where the resistance to
"individualism" must be at least as stiff as in economics.

A useful term in this connection is "agent," unless that, too, has bad
connotations in economics. It's not quite as evocative of pins through
butterflies as "specimen", although Phil Runkel has taken away a lot of
that unwanted connotation. An agent is an entity capable of acting on the
world to produce effects, the implication being that the effects are chosen
and intended. It might have an advantage in that "agent-based economics"
seems to be gaining ground, and may be approaching the principles of
control, if only tentatively. The term is just a nomination, not a
decision. No reason we can't use both.

The idea of a theory of culture is attractive. From where I stand, the
chief difficulty would be in deciding just what we would want such a theory
to accomplish. In the theory of agents, control theory can be used to model
and predict the actions of a single agent in a specified set of conditions,
and it also serves as a source of guidelines for research into the internal
organization of single specimens. Out of control theory we get some very
general rules of thumb, about things like loop gain, stability,
relationships between disturbances and actions, and hierarchical control.

So we can ask what sorts of general principles we would like to draw from a
control-theoretic analysis of culture, and where we can get the data to
work from. There are, of course, tons of studies from a century or more of
social research, but unfortunately the quality of the data is such that
it's hard to draw conclusions from them with much predictive power. We may
be in a situation like that vis-a-vis psychology, where any value of past
research data for use in exploring control phenomena is strictly
accidental. The experimental designs simply didn't anticipate the needs of
research into control processes. This leaves us with little choice but to
do our own experiments, or get someone else to do them (which is a lot
harder, believe me).

The other approach is to experiment with models. The "crowd" program was
designed for that purpose, and it revealed phenomena that, unknown to me,
were already well-known in the study of crowds -- the "arcs and rings"
configuration being one of the first to be noticed in the setup called
"guru." This is a branch of modeling that tends to show up in fields where
experimenting with real systems is difficult, expensive, or illegal. You
can answer such questions as "What is the effect on an astronaut's ability
to control position in space if one leg has to be amputated?" -- without
actually doing this to a real astronaut.

Experimenting with models reveals emergent phenomena not obvious in the
initial design of the model. Consider a simple design consisting of two
control systems which are independent except that the actions of each one
symmetrically affect the controlled variable of the other (as well as their
own). It's not obvious that this elementary relationship creates positive
feedback, but an experiment with a model will quickly show the instability
that appears when the strength of the mutual effects exceeds a certain
threshold. This sort of exploration may provide a different route to a
theory of culture, by suggesting non-obvious phenomena that can emerge from
social interactions. Of course the underlying models of agents have to be
realistic, and the interactions tested have to be in the realm of the
possible, but this method is being used increasingly in other sciences,
such as astrophysics and materials sciences. We have used it in PCT to
explore the properties of systems in conflict (Kent McClelland) without
actually putting real people into conflict with each other (well, not on
purpose).

The two approaches, experiments with real systems and experiments with
models, would, in the best of all possible worlds, be highly interactive,
with real-system experiments being used to develop and test models, and
experiments with models being used to point out new phenomena which can be
investigated in the real systems. It seems to me that this is bound to be
how we investigate social phenomena in the future.

Finally, we can now do something that nobody could have done (on any
feasible budget) only ten or a dozen years ago: model large numbers of
agents interacting with each other in a complex environment. I'm talking
about hundreds, even thousands, of agents, in models that manipulate many
megabytes of data. So we can have our cake and eat it too: our macro
models can be built out of large numbers of microeconomic interactions, to
show the relationship between the detailed and general views of the system.
Charlotte Bruun wrote eloquently about this aspect of modeling in her
thesis and the paper more specifically about her model (she hasn't
communicated for some time, but I'm leaving it up to her -- a busy
professional, a wife, and a mother of several very small children).

The consumption-budget model we've been tossing around may be a place to
start, in that it involves a single agent, but is potentially part of a
larger system involving other sectors of the economy and other agents. If
we can get this one agent operating with acceptable realism in a sort of
amorphous fuzzy economy, we can then start giving form to other parts of
the economy with which this agent ineracts, as in econ004 and beyond. I
think we will discover things by experimenting with this model and its
successors, phenomena that we can hope to identify in the real economy. At
first, I'd be happy to "predict" things that everybody already knows --
that's how we make sure the model is working right. But I'm confident that
there are phenomena which no human being, however knowledgable or
insightful, could predict simply because the interactions are too complex
for anyone to comprehend without the aid of a model.

I haven't even mentioned reorganization and learning. I'm irrationally
daunted by the prospect of setting up a big model and letting
reorganization loose to work on it. I guess I don't have much faith that it
will really work. But what the hey, we'll try it one of these days.

···

==================================================================
Today I had a big break-through in converting Little Man Version 2 into
Delphi. It was originally in C, which of course is not compatible with
Delphi which uses Pascal, The existing code in Pascal did not contain all
the original features, and while I did (with a lot of help from my friends)
salvage the original Pascal code for Version One (from the late 1980s), I
could not find any trace of an equivalent form of Version 2 in Pascal from
1989 and the early 90s -- the one with real physical dynamics in it. So I
decided to try to merge the two versions with the old C code as a guide,
and today I managed to get the little man pointing while looking at the
finger and target with two independently-aimed eyes in a movable head, with
binocular vision for control in the depth dimension -- in Delphi. This part
still works in the imagination mode (no physical dynamics yet), but I've
already tested the interface with the physical dynamics part of the program
and joining the two parts should not take much longer. Then all that will
remain will be to use the Delphi tools for editing parameters, and building
a "live block diagram" of the Version 2 model -- everyone liked that
feature of Version 1, which was left out of version two for lack of space
on the screen, so I want to include it in the Version 2 model.

Then I think we will be able to turn to the economics modeling much more
seriously. I still have a lot of converting from Pascal to Delphi to do (it
scares me to think that none of my old DOS-bsed programs will compile, much
less run, on any working machine 10 years from now) but the Crowd
(converted) and the Little Man were the most complex programs and involved
learning a lot of new things about Delphi. The rest can go faster,
expecially if there is some volunteer help.

Best,

Bill P.